IllinoisFighting Illini

3-0 T3rd (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsEastern IllinoisEIU	W45-0
2	9/07	vsKansasKU	W23-17
3	9/14	vsCentral MichiganCMU	W30-9
4	9/20	@NebraskaNEB	Win prob:34%
5	9/28	@Penn StatePSU	Win prob:11%
7	10/12	vsPurduePUR	Win prob:79%
8	10/19	vsMichiganMICH	Win prob:13%
9	10/26	@OregonORE	Win prob:5%
10	11/02	vsMinnesotaMINN	Win prob:57%
12	11/16	vsMichigan StateMSU	Win prob:73%
13	11/23	@RutgersRUTG	Win prob:45%
14	11/30	vsNorthwesternNU(N)	Win prob:54%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0%	100.0%
8-1	0.1%	81.0%
7-2	1.0%	17.0%
6-3	6.3%	0.1%
5-4	18.7%	0%
4-5	30.4%	0%
3-6	27.0%	0%
2-7	13.1%	0%
1-8	3.1%	0%
0-9	0.3%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

43.5%

30.4%

13.0%

8.7%

4.3%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
IllinoisILL@NebraskaNEB	0.6% (+0.3%)	0.1% (-0.2%)
USCUSC@MichiganMICH	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
IowaIOWA@MinnesotaMINN	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@IndianaIU	0.3% (+0.1%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
PurduePUR@Oregon StateORST	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
NorthwesternNU@WashingtonWASH	0.3% (+0.1%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Ohio StateOSU	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
VillanovaVILL@MarylandMD	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
UCLAUCLA@LSULSU	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
RutgersRUTG@Virginia TechVT	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
Kent StateKENT@Penn StatePSU	0.1% (-0.1%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
Michigan StateMSU@Boston CollegeBC	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

79.7%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

77.1%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

16.9%

1.0%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

38.5%

<0.1%

34.2%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

31.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

18.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

15.6%

<0.1%

13.3%

0.1%

8.7%

0.3%

8.3%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.7%

0.2%

Any 3 losses

3.2%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com