Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
16.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-26 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:24% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:96% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:86% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:83% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:48% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:80% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:76% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:97% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.6% | 99.9% |
| 7-1 | 16.0% | 65.5% |
| 6-2 | 31.7% | 9.9% |
| 5-3 | 29.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 14.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 16.2% (+0.0%) | 16.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 16.3% (+0.1%) | 16.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 16.5% (+0.3%) | 16.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 16.0% (-0.2%) | 16.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 16.5% (+0.3%) | 16.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 16.2% (+0.0%) | 16.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 16.6% (+0.4%) | 16.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 17.2% (+1.0%) | 16.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 15.7% (-0.5%) | 16.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 15.8% (-0.4%) | 16.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 16.3% (+0.1%) | 16.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 16.6% (+0.4%) | 16.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 16.2% (+0.0%) | 16.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.5% (-0.7%) | 22.5% (+6.3%) | |
| 16.1% (-0.1%) | 16.3% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
2.2%Any 1 loss
66.5%
13.7%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.6%
0.2%
88.5%
0.7%
87.4%
0.4%
87.2%
2.4%
86.4%
0.3%
73.9%
0.6%
73.7%
0.4%
69.8%
1.5%
51.5%
7.0%Any 2 losses
14.8%
29.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%90.2%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.1%
0.3%88.9%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%84.5%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.2%
0.2%68.4%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%50.6%
0.8%50.6%
0.4%42.5%
0.2%36.1%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%21.8%
0.1%21.6%
0.1%19.8%
0.6%19.3%
0.1%18.8%
0.4%18.7%
0.3%18.4%
0.4%18.2%
0.3%17.9%
0.4%17.1%
<0.1%16.8%
0.2%16.5%
0.8%16.4%
<0.1%16.1%
0.1%15.8%
0.2%15.7%
1.7%14.1%
0.2%13.0%
0.1%12.2%
0.5%10.6%
1.1%10.2%
0.9%8.9%
7.5%8.3%
1.8%5.7%
1.4%5.5%
2.1%5.5%
5.0%Any 3 losses
11.2%
5.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.0%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.7%
0.9%9.2%
0.4%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
0.2%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.9%
0.2%7.5%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.4%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.2%
0.1%4.9%
0.5%4.5%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Any 4 losses
13.7%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02