Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:41% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:86% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:63% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:98% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:23% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:32% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:21% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:24% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:28% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:46% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.3% | 90.4% |
| 6-2 | 2.3% | 42.8% |
| 5-3 | 9.2% | 0.7% |
| 4-4 | 21.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 24.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.2%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (+0.2%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.2%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.3%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
91.2%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
95.5%
<0.1%
89.5%
<0.1%
88.9%
<0.1%
83.9%
<0.1%
83.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
49.8%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
27.0%
2.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%60.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.2%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.0%
0.1%34.0%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.4%
0.1%27.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Any 4 losses
4.4%
2.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.4%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02