Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:59% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:96% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:75% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:81% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:33% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:78% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:86% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:96% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:77% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.6% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 15.4% | 54.8% |
| 7-2 | 32.1% | 3.9% |
| 6-3 | 29.7% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 15.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 4.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 13.5% (+1.2%) | 12.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 13.6% (+1.3%) | 12.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.4% (+0.1%) | 12.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.0% (-0.3%) | 12.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.0% (-0.4%) | 12.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.1% (-0.2%) | 12.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.3% (+0.0%) | 12.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.1% (-0.2%) | 12.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.1% (-0.2%) | 12.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.3% (+0.0%) | 12.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.0% (-0.3%) | 12.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.1% (-0.2%) | 12.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.5% (+0.2%) | 12.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.2% (-0.1%) | 12.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.0% (-0.3%) | 12.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.1% (-0.2%) | 12.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 12.3% (-0.0%) | 12.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.3% (-0.0%) | 12.3% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.5%Any 1 loss
60.2%
9.9%
100.0%
1.0%
100.0%
<0.1%
74.8%
0.5%
74.7%
0.5%
72.7%
0.2%
72.7%
0.4%
70.6%
0.4%
68.9%
<0.1%
68.7%
0.2%
54.9%
3.0%
44.7%
3.6%Any 2 losses
16.9%
24.5%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.8%
0.3%75.8%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.3%
0.3%71.3%
0.2%70.9%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.5%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%54.3%
2.2%51.7%
0.1%43.9%
2.4%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
0.1%23.7%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.3%
0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.2%
0.1%13.7%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
0.1%9.2%
<0.1%7.0%
0.4%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.5%
0.8%5.3%
1.0%5.1%
1.0%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.9%4.8%
0.8%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
1.1%3.9%
0.5%3.6%
1.2%3.3%
0.1%3.2%
0.4%3.1%
0.8%2.7%
0.6%1.5%
7.2%Any 3 losses
4.8%
13.5%100.0%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%41.3%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.9%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.0%
0.4%5.6%
<0.1%4.9%
0.8%4.9%
0.6%4.9%
0.7%4.8%
0.7%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.3%4.7%
0.1%3.9%
0.7%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.8%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.5%2.5%
0.3%2.5%
0.3%2.3%
0.4%2.1%
0.6%1.8%
<0.1%1.4%
5.1%Any 4 losses
5.3%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02