Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W31-7 | |
| 1 | 8/29 | W46-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:41% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:78% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:77% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:53% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:51% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:88% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:68% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:44% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.3% | 99.9% |
| 8-1 | 7.7% | 96.8% |
| 7-2 | 19.6% | 59.4% |
| 6-3 | 28.0% | 5.8% |
| 5-4 | 24.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 13.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.3% (+0.2%) | 22.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.8% (-0.3%) | 22.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 21.8% (-0.3%) | 22.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.3% (+0.2%) | 21.9% (-0.2%) | |
| 21.8% (-0.2%) | 22.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 21.5% (-0.5%) | 22.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.0% (-0.1%) | 22.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.5% (+0.4%) | 22.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 22.2% (+0.1%) | 22.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.9% (-0.2%) | 22.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.2% (+0.1%) | 22.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.4% (+0.3%) | 21.9% (-0.2%) | |
| 22.1% (-0.0%) | 22.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 21.9% (-0.2%) | 22.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.1% (+0.1%) | 22.0% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.8%
0.5%Any 1 loss
97.5%
3.9%
100.0%
0.8%
98.8%
0.2%
98.6%
<0.1%
98.4%
0.5%
97.9%
0.2%
97.1%
0.4%
96.8%
0.5%
96.8%
0.1%
96.0%
0.7%
94.9%
0.4%Any 2 losses
73.0%
12.8%99.1%
0.1%98.7%
0.2%97.7%
0.8%97.6%
0.7%96.6%
0.2%96.6%
0.6%96.2%
0.4%95.7%
1.1%95.4%
0.5%84.5%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%75.7%
0.1%74.0%
0.2%71.7%
0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.8%
0.2%70.3%
0.4%70.0%
0.5%69.3%
0.2%67.0%
0.1%66.9%
0.1%66.5%
0.2%65.0%
0.5%62.7%
0.4%62.3%
0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.7%
0.2%61.5%
<0.1%60.1%
0.4%59.8%
0.1%57.6%
<0.1%57.1%
0.2%53.6%
0.3%53.5%
0.3%50.6%
0.6%50.4%
0.2%49.5%
0.7%47.2%
0.6%44.6%
0.5%39.8%
0.1%Any 3 losses
32.4%
22.9%86.2%
<0.1%83.6%
0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%77.6%
0.1%74.3%
0.3%73.7%
0.1%73.3%
0.3%73.3%
<0.1%71.5%
0.3%70.8%
0.2%70.8%
0.1%70.7%
0.2%69.0%
0.2%67.6%
0.2%67.0%
0.7%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
0.6%65.1%
0.2%65.1%
0.3%64.7%
0.1%62.3%
0.1%61.1%
0.2%60.8%
0.7%60.8%
0.1%58.0%
0.4%55.6%
0.6%54.8%
<0.1%53.9%
0.3%53.7%
0.9%52.9%
0.5%52.1%
0.3%51.3%
0.9%49.2%
0.5%48.4%
0.8%42.5%
0.7%30.0%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.0%
0.3%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.5%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
0.3%9.3%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.2%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
0.1%8.0%
0.3%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.3%
0.3%7.1%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.2%6.5%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%6.1%
0.2%6.1%
0.2%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
0.4%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.7%5.2%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
0.3%4.1%
0.2%4.1%
0.2%3.9%
0.4%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
0.2%3.3%
0.5%3.2%
0.5%3.0%
0.5%3.0%
0.2%2.8%
0.1%2.8%
0.3%2.6%
0.3%2.5%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%1.7%
0.5%0.9%
0.2%Any 4 losses
5.8%
16.4%38.9%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
0.2%15.4%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
0.1%13.3%
0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.2%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.3%9.8%
0.2%9.8%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.5%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.1%8.1%
0.4%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.8%
0.3%7.6%
0.4%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
0.2%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.3%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.5%6.7%
0.3%6.6%
0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.3%
0.9%6.3%
0.3%5.9%
0.6%5.9%
0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.5%
0.2%5.4%
0.4%5.2%
0.1%5.1%
0.2%5.0%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
0.4%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
0.3%4.5%
0.2%4.2%
0.2%4.0%
0.6%3.8%
0.3%3.5%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.0%
0.9%3.0%
0.5%2.9%
0.7%2.8%
0.3%2.8%
0.3%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.7%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.4%
0.6%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02