Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
77.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:76% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:88% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:97% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:90% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:96% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 29.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 40.4% | 97.6% |
| 6-2 | 22.2% | 35.8% |
| 5-3 | 6.4% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 76.6% (-0.6%) | 77.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 77.2% (-0.1%) | 77.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 77.1% (-0.1%) | 77.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 77.3% (+0.0%) | 77.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 77.8% (+0.6%) | 77.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 77.3% (+0.1%) | 77.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 77.3% (+0.0%) | 77.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 76.3% (-0.9%) | 77.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 76.8% (-0.4%) | 77.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 77.7% (+0.4%) | 77.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 77.5% (+0.2%) | 77.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 77.8% (+0.6%) | 77.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 77.2% (-0.0%) | 77.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 76.9% (-0.4%) | 80.6% (+3.4%) | |
| 77.1% (-0.1%) | 77.3% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
25.1%Any 1 loss
97.9%
38.5%100.0%
2.8%100.0%
1.5%100.0%
0.3%99.6%
2.6%98.8%
3.3%98.6%
8.0%98.0%
0.8%97.4%
6.0%96.9%
9.5%95.8%
0.9%95.0%
2.9%Any 2 losses
51.2%
25.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.9%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.3%99.0%
0.4%98.9%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.5%
0.5%97.3%
0.5%97.0%
0.7%97.0%
<0.1%97.0%
1.1%96.7%
0.2%96.6%
0.3%96.5%
0.2%96.5%
<0.1%95.4%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%94.0%
0.3%93.9%
<0.1%60.4%
0.1%59.3%
<0.1%55.9%
0.1%55.5%
0.3%53.7%
0.3%53.0%
<0.1%51.7%
0.1%50.0%
0.1%49.1%
0.9%46.8%
0.6%46.7%
<0.1%43.5%
0.2%43.4%
1.0%42.3%
0.4%42.1%
0.2%40.7%
0.3%40.5%
0.3%38.8%
0.2%38.4%
0.4%37.6%
1.1%35.1%
0.9%34.6%
1.1%33.6%
0.8%32.9%
0.7%32.2%
1.9%31.1%
1.3%29.7%
3.0%23.5%
2.3%Any 3 losses
28.4%
5.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%49.1%
0.1%48.6%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.8%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%38.9%
0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.7%
0.1%37.5%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
0.2%36.4%
<0.1%35.8%
0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.9%
0.1%32.5%
0.2%31.6%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.3%
0.3%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
0.2%22.0%
0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.7%
0.7%0.6%
0.4%Any 4 losses
36.4%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02