Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
26.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W73-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W59-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:94% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:94% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:77% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:67% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:10% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:82% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:94% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:40% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 10.5% | 99.9% |
| 8-1 | 31.6% | 46.1% |
| 7-2 | 33.9% | 3.8% |
| 6-3 | 17.8% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 26.6% (+0.3%) | 26.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 26.2% (-0.1%) | 26.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 26.7% (+0.3%) | 26.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 25.9% (-0.4%) | 26.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 26.3% (+0.0%) | 26.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 25.8% (-0.6%) | 26.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 27.4% (+1.0%) | 8.7% (-17.6%) | |
| 26.2% (-0.1%) | 26.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 26.4% (+0.1%) | 26.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 26.6% (+0.3%) | 26.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 26.5% (+0.1%) | 26.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 26.7% (+0.4%) | 26.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 25.9% (-0.4%) | 26.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 26.1% (-0.2%) | 28.4% (+2.1%) | |
| 27.6% (+1.3%) | 26.3% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
1.0%Any 1 loss
86.2%
12.6%
99.9%
9.4%
63.9%
<0.1%
57.9%
0.2%
55.6%
0.3%
52.6%
0.3%
52.5%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%
49.2%
<0.1%
43.0%
1.6%
36.5%
0.5%Any 2 losses
41.6%
31.8%60.0%
<0.1%59.2%
0.5%57.8%
0.6%55.5%
2.0%54.6%
2.8%54.0%
2.7%52.7%
0.5%50.2%
0.6%42.1%
14.1%40.2%
4.6%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
0.4%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
0.5%2.8%
0.5%2.3%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.4%
0.8%Any 3 losses
3.8%
30.5%14.0%
<0.1%13.8%
0.2%13.5%
0.2%13.4%
0.1%12.4%
0.1%12.0%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
0.2%10.7%
<0.1%10.2%
0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.4%
<0.1%8.2%
0.2%7.3%
0.2%7.2%
0.6%5.9%
0.8%5.7%
0.3%5.7%
1.4%5.6%
0.6%5.5%
0.2%5.5%
0.2%5.4%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%4.9%
0.9%4.8%
0.3%4.8%
1.0%4.5%
0.9%4.1%
3.1%3.9%
0.8%3.8%
0.9%3.5%
0.3%3.2%
4.2%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
1.3%2.8%
4.3%1.2%
6.9%2.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07