OregonDucks

2-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

21.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsMontana StateMTST	W59-13
2	9/06	vsOklahoma StateOKST	W69-3
3	9/13	@NorthwesternNU	Win prob:91%
4	9/20	vsOregon StateORST	Win prob:96%
5	9/27	@Penn StatePSU	Win prob:18%
7	10/11	vsIndianaIU	Win prob:66%
8	10/18	@RutgersRUTG	Win prob:83%
9	10/25	vsWisconsinWIS	Win prob:88%
11	11/08	@IowaIOWA	Win prob:67%
12	11/14	vsMinnesotaMINN	Win prob:84%
13	11/22	vsUSCUSC	Win prob:60%
14	11/29	@WashingtonWASH	Win prob:76%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	2.0%	100.0%
8-1	14.5%	89.7%
7-2	30.2%	21.5%
6-3	29.8%	0.2%
5-4	16.5%	0%
4-5	5.6%	0%
3-6	1.2%	0%
2-7	0.1%	0%
1-8	0.0%	0%
0-9	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

55.3%

29.3%

8.1%

4.6%

2.7%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Central MichiganCMU@MichiganMICH	20.7% (-0.9%)	21.6% (+0.0%)
VillanovaVILL@Penn StatePSU	21.3% (-0.3%)	21.6% (+0.0%)
New MexicoUNM@UCLAUCLA	21.6% (-0.0%)	21.6% (+0.0%)
Houston ChristianHCU@NebraskaNEB	21.4% (-0.2%)	21.6% (+0.0%)
Youngstown StateYSU@Michigan StateMSU	22.1% (+0.5%)	21.5% (-0.1%)
Western MichiganWMU@IllinoisILL	22.1% (+0.5%)	21.5% (-0.1%)
USCUSC@PurduePUR	21.5% (-0.1%)	22.6% (+1.1%)
Indiana StateINST@IndianaIU	21.3% (-0.3%)	21.6% (+0.0%)
MinnesotaMINN@CaliforniaCAL	21.5% (-0.1%)	21.7% (+0.1%)
WisconsinWIS@AlabamaALA	21.8% (+0.2%)	21.5% (-0.1%)
OhioOHIO@Ohio StateOSU	21.1% (-0.5%)	21.6% (+0.1%)
Norfolk StateNORF@RutgersRUTG	21.5% (-0.1%)	21.6% (+0.0%)
TowsonTOW@MarylandMD	21.3% (-0.3%)	21.6% (+0.0%)
OregonORE@NorthwesternNU	23.0% (+1.4%)	7.3% (-14.3%)
MassachusettsMASS@IowaIOWA	21.6% (-0.0%)	21.6% (+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

1.9%

Any 1 loss

89.8%

14.0%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.0%

0.4%

98.8%

1.0%

94.7%

1.0%

94.5%

0.6%

93.8%

0.2%

93.4%

0.3%

87.9%

8.8%

86.5%

1.3%

86.0%

0.4%

Any 2 losses

22.8%

29.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

96.3%

<0.1%

95.0%

<0.1%

93.2%

<0.1%

91.1%

<0.1%

87.6%

0.4%

80.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

51.4%

<0.1%

50.8%

<0.1%

50.5%

0.3%

46.0%

0.1%

45.1%

0.2%

43.2%

<0.1%

40.9%

0.1%

40.3%

0.3%

39.6%

0.2%

39.2%

<0.1%

39.1%

0.1%

38.7%

0.1%

37.4%

0.2%

36.8%

0.2%

36.5%

<0.1%

35.3%

0.1%

32.8%

0.1%

32.8%

<0.1%

32.5%

0.5%

29.2%

0.1%

27.0%

0.3%

27.0%

0.2%

26.3%

0.2%

25.6%

1.8%

25.3%

0.9%

24.8%

0.4%

23.3%

2.9%

22.0%

0.7%

21.9%

0.6%

21.8%

1.7%

21.8%

4.4%

20.4%

1.3%

17.5%

4.7%

11.2%

5.9%

Any 3 losses

8.9%

3.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

53.8%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

36.4%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

31.0%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

27.9%

<0.1%

27.7%

<0.1%

26.1%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

22.9%

0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

21.4%

0.2%

20.8%

0.2%

20.0%

<0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.1%

0.3%

5.0%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

2.7%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

1.0%

0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

1.4%

0.6%

0.2%

Any 4 losses

6.2%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com