IndianaHoosiers

2-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

9.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsOld DominionODU	W27-14
2	9/06	vsKennesaw StateKENN	W56-9
3	9/12	vsIndiana StateINST	Win prob:90%
4	9/20	vsIllinoisILL	Win prob:83%
5	9/27	@IowaIOWA	Win prob:59%
7	10/11	@OregonORE	Win prob:34%
8	10/18	vsMichigan StateMSU	Win prob:93%
9	10/25	vsUCLAUCLA	Win prob:93%
10	11/01	@MarylandMD	Win prob:80%
11	11/08	@Penn StatePSU	Win prob:13%
12	11/15	vsWisconsinWIS	Win prob:84%
14	11/28	@PurduePUR	Win prob:93%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	1.2%	99.7%
8-1	11.7%	55.2%
7-2	32.1%	4.5%
6-3	33.3%	0.0%
5-4	16.6%	0%
4-5	4.4%	0%
3-6	0.6%	0%
2-7	0.1%	0%
1-8	0%	0%
0-9	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

48.4%

29.1%

11.2%

6.5%

4.9%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Central MichiganCMU@MichiganMICH	9.3% (+0.3%)	9.1% (-0.0%)
VillanovaVILL@Penn StatePSU	8.7% (-0.3%)	9.1% (+0.0%)
New MexicoUNM@UCLAUCLA	9.0% (-0.0%)	9.1% (+0.0%)
Houston ChristianHCU@NebraskaNEB	8.6% (-0.4%)	9.1% (+0.1%)
Youngstown StateYSU@Michigan StateMSU	9.2% (+0.1%)	9.1% (-0.0%)
Western MichiganWMU@IllinoisILL	9.2% (+0.1%)	9.0% (-0.0%)
USCUSC@PurduePUR	9.0% (-0.1%)	11.0% (+1.9%)
Indiana StateINST@IndianaIU	9.2% (+0.1%)	9.1% (-0.0%)
MinnesotaMINN@CaliforniaCAL	9.0% (-0.1%)	9.2% (+0.1%)
WisconsinWIS@AlabamaALA	9.0% (-0.1%)	9.1% (+0.0%)
OhioOHIO@Ohio StateOSU	8.9% (-0.2%)	9.1% (+0.0%)
Norfolk StateNORF@RutgersRUTG	8.6% (-0.5%)	9.1% (+0.1%)
TowsonTOW@MarylandMD	8.9% (-0.1%)	9.1% (+0.0%)
OregonORE@NorthwesternNU	9.0% (-0.1%)	9.8% (+0.7%)
MassachusettsMASS@IowaIOWA	9.8% (+0.7%)	9.1% (-0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.7%

1.1%

Any 1 loss

55.6%

10.6%

100.0%

0.1%

75.1%

0.3%

72.9%

0.7%

71.6%

0.2%

70.8%

0.2%

67.9%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

65.5%

<0.1%

60.8%

2.1%

49.4%

6.8%

Any 2 losses

6.4%

30.0%

81.8%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

73.9%

<0.1%

69.6%

<0.1%

69.2%

<0.1%

66.2%

0.2%

63.6%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

49.5%

0.8%

43.8%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

22.4%

<0.1%

21.1%

<0.1%

18.8%

0.1%

18.8%

<0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

17.7%

<0.1%

17.6%

<0.1%

17.0%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

11.5%

0.2%

8.5%

<0.1%

8.3%

0.5%

8.0%

0.4%

7.9%

<0.1%

7.7%

0.2%

7.4%

0.1%

7.3%

<0.1%

6.6%

1.8%

6.4%

0.2%

6.3%

0.5%

5.9%

0.1%

5.7%

0.5%

5.6%

1.4%

5.5%

1.4%

5.5%

0.4%

5.3%

1.5%

5.0%

0.5%

4.9%

4.8%

2.5%

13.5%

Any 3 losses

5.3%

3.2%

50.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

27.3%

<0.1%

23.1%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

18.8%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

13.3%

<0.1%

13.2%

<0.1%

10.2%

<0.1%

7.7%

0.1%

7.6%

0.2%

7.1%

<0.1%

6.3%

0.2%

5.8%

<0.1%

5.5%

0.6%

5.3%

<0.1%

5.3%

<0.1%

4.8%

0.2%

3.2%

1.5%

1.7%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com