Big Ten Championship Probabilities

CCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team	9-0	8-1	7-2	6-3	Overall
Penn StatePSU	100%	88.2%	17.4%	0.2%	71.9%
Ohio StateOSU	100%	81.1%	14.7%	0.1%	53.7%
USCUSC	99.9%	46.1%	3.8%	<0.1%	26.3%
OregonORE	100%	89.7%	21.5%	0.2%	21.6%
MichiganMICH	99.9%	54.7%	4.0%	<0.1%	12.2%
IndianaIU	99.7%	55.2%	4.5%	<0.1%	9.1%
IowaIOWA	100%	89.9%	20.4%	<0.1%	2.0%
MinnesotaMINN	97.8%	47.2%	2.3%	-	1.2%
WashingtonWASH	100%	63.6%	5.7%	<0.1%	0.8%
IllinoisILL	100%	66.4%	7.8%	<0.1%	0.6%
MarylandMD	100%	42.2%	2.9%	-	0.2%
NebraskaNEB	100%	75.6%	12.1%	<0.1%	0.2%
WisconsinWIS	-	85.7%	23.7%	0.4%	0.1%
RutgersRUTG	100%	92.3%	19.4%	0.1%	<0.1%
Michigan StateMSU	-	-	33.3%	-	-
NorthwesternNU	-	-	22.2%	-	-
PurduePUR	-	-	-	-	-
UCLAUCLA	-	-	21.1%	-	-

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Team	9-0	8-1	7-2	6-3	5-4	4-5	3-6	2-7	1-8	0-9	Avg Wins
Penn StatePSU(0-0)	29.6%	43.8%	21.1%	5.0%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	8.0
Ohio StateOSU(0-0)	17.1%	39.7%	29.9%	10.8%	2.2%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.6
USCUSC(0-0)	10.5%	31.6%	33.9%	17.8%	5.2%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.2
MichiganMICH(0-0)	2.6%	15.3%	32.0%	30.0%	14.9%	4.3%	0.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	6.4
OregonORE(0-0)	2.0%	14.5%	30.2%	29.8%	16.5%	5.6%	1.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	6.3
IndianaIU(0-0)	1.2%	11.7%	32.1%	33.3%	16.6%	4.4%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	6.3
MinnesotaMINN(0-0)	<0.1%	1.8%	11.2%	27.3%	31.9%	19.6%	6.8%	1.3%	0.1%	0.0%	5.2
WashingtonWASH(0-0)	<0.1%	0.8%	5.2%	16.1%	28.1%	27.9%	15.8%	5.2%	0.9%	<0.1%	4.5
IowaIOWA(0-0)	<0.1%	0.9%	5.3%	16.2%	27.4%	27.6%	16.1%	5.5%	0.9%	<0.1%	4.5
IllinoisILL(0-0)	<0.1%	0.4%	3.2%	12.5%	25.7%	29.8%	19.6%	7.3%	1.3%	0.1%	4.2
MarylandMD(0-0)	<0.1%	0.3%	2.1%	7.9%	18.3%	26.9%	24.9%	14.2%	4.6%	0.6%	3.7
NebraskaNEB(0-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	1.0%	5.7%	16.9%	28.3%	28.0%	15.3%	4.2%	0.5%	3.6
WisconsinWIS(0-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.4%	3.2%	11.0%	23.6%	30.1%	21.9%	8.5%	1.3%	3.1
RutgersRUTG(0-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.2%	1.8%	8.1%	20.8%	30.9%	26.1%	10.6%	1.6%	2.9
NorthwesternNU(0-0)	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.3%	2.1%	10.4%	26.8%	35.6%	20.7%	4.1%	2.3
UCLAUCLA(0-0)	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.2%	2.3%	10.2%	24.6%	33.0%	23.2%	6.6%	2.2
Michigan StateMSU(0-0)	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	5.3%	17.8%	33.9%	31.4%	10.5%	1.8
PurduePUR(0-0)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.1%	1.3%	7.6%	23.4%	39.8%	27.7%	1.2

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com