Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-21 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W70-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:54% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:14% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:56% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:22% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:61% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:47% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:70% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:24% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.8% | 63.6% |
| 7-2 | 5.2% | 5.7% |
| 6-3 | 16.1% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 15.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.4%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 1.2% (+0.3%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
65.2%
0.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
90.3%
<0.1%
84.0%
<0.1%
81.8%
<0.1%
75.3%
<0.1%
73.3%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
61.5%
<0.1%
55.6%
<0.1%
50.3%
0.1%Any 2 losses
12.0%
3.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.9%
0.1%30.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.2%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.3%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.6%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
0.2%3.2%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%2.5%
0.5%1.8%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
6.6%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.2%
0.2%6.0%
0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%4.7%
0.5%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.3%2.6%
<0.1%1.8%
0.4%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07