SEC

SEC Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-07

SECConference Standings

1MississippiMISS1-02-049.6%
T2GeorgiaUGA0-02-076.7%
T2TexasTEX0-01-124.7%
T2TennesseeTENN0-02-015.5%
T2AlabamaALA0-01-18.2%
T2LSULSU0-02-06.3%
T2South CarolinaSC0-02-06.3%
T2Texas A&MTA&M0-02-05.4%
T2MissouriMIZ0-02-03.0%
T2FloridaFLA0-01-11.4%
T2OklahomaOU0-02-01.3%
T2AuburnAUB0-02-01.0%
T2ArkansasARK0-02-00.4%
T2VanderbiltVAN0-02-0<0.1%
T2KentuckyUK0-11-1<0.1%
T2Mississippi StMSST0-02-0-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely SEC CCG Matchups

133.7%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
MISSMississippi
214.2%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TEXTexas
38.3%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TENNTennessee
46.0%
MississippiMISS
vs
TEXTexas
55.2%
AlabamaALA
vs
UGAGeorgia
63.9%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
SCSouth Carolina
73.8%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
LSULSU
83.8%
MississippiMISS
vs
TENNTennessee
93.3%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
101.8%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
MIZMissouri
111.7%
TennesseeTENN
vs
TEXTexas
121.4%
AlabamaALA
vs
MISSMississippi
131.2%
MississippiMISS
vs
SCSouth Carolina
141.2%
LSULSU
vs
MISSMississippi
151.0%
MississippiMISS
vs
TA&MTexas A&M

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on SEC CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 76.7%
Game
GeorgiaCCG OddsAway
GeorgiaCCG OddsHome
ArkansasARK@MississippiMISS
79.2%
(+2.5%)		76.5%
(-0.2%)
FloridaFLA@LSULSU
77.9%
(+1.2%)		76.1%
(-0.6%)
South AlabamaUSA@AuburnAUB
76.5%
(-0.2%)		76.8%
(+0.1%)
E MichiganEMU@KentuckyUK
76.8%
(+0.0%)		76.7%
(-0.0%)
VanderbiltVAN@South CarolinaSC
77.7%
(+1.0%)		76.5%
(-0.2%)
LouisianaUL@MissouriMIZ
76.7%
(-0.0%)		76.7%
(+0.0%)
UTEPUTEP@TexasTEX
76.9%
(+0.2%)		76.7%
(+0.0%)
Alcorn StateALCN@Mississippi StMSST
76.7%
(+0.0%)		76.7%
(+0.0%)
WisconsinWIS@AlabamaALA
76.6%
(-0.1%)		76.8%
(+0.0%)
OklahomaOU@TempleTEM
76.8%
(+0.1%)		76.3%
(-0.4%)
Texas A&MTA&M@Notre DameND
76.4%
(-0.3%)		76.7%
(+0.0%)
GeorgiaUGA@TennesseeTENN
84.4%
(+7.7%)		52.5%
(-24.2%)

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-25-3Overall
GeorgiaUGA100%97.6%33.8%0.4%76.7%
MississippiMISS99.9%82.8%18.3%0.3%49.6%
TexasTEX99.7%61.6%8.6%<0.1%24.7%
TennesseeTENN99.7%63.2%8.6%<0.1%15.5%
AlabamaALA100%86.2%22.3%0.3%8.2%
LSULSU100%74.2%13.9%0.1%6.3%
South CarolinaSC100%73.8%13.6%<0.1%6.3%
Texas A&MTA&M100%67.5%11.0%<0.1%5.4%
MissouriMIZ99.8%50.7%4.9%<0.1%3.0%
FloridaFLA100%96.6%36.9%0.4%1.4%
OklahomaOU100%90.8%42.3%0.5%1.3%
AuburnAUB100%74.3%9.1%<0.1%1.0%
ArkansasARK100%84.4%28.8%0.2%0.4%
VanderbiltVAN-90.0%21.7%0.1%<0.1%
KentuckyUK--37.2%1.4%<0.1%
Mississippi StMSST--14.3%1.0%-

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

SECFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
GeorgiaUGA(0-0)29.9%40.3%22.1%6.5%1.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.9
MississippiMISS(1-0)10.7%39.5%33.9%12.9%2.6%0.3%<0.1%0.0%-6.4
TexasTEX(0-0)4.7%27.3%36.6%22.2%7.5%1.4%0.1%<0.1%0.0%5.9
TennesseeTENN(0-0)2.8%15.7%31.9%29.7%14.9%4.2%0.7%<0.1%0.0%5.5
South CarolinaSC(0-0)0.5%4.8%16.8%28.9%28.0%15.5%4.8%0.8%<0.1%4.5
AlabamaALA(0-0)0.4%4.6%16.7%28.6%27.7%15.9%5.1%0.9%<0.1%4.5
LSULSU(0-0)0.5%4.8%16.3%28.2%27.5%16.1%5.5%1.0%<0.1%4.5
Texas A&MTA&M(0-0)0.5%4.7%15.6%27.4%28.3%16.7%5.8%1.0%<0.1%4.4
MissouriMIZ(0-0)0.5%3.7%12.7%24.4%28.2%20.1%8.4%1.9%0.2%4.2
AuburnAUB(0-0)<0.1%0.7%4.9%14.7%27.2%28.5%17.5%5.7%0.7%3.4
FloridaFLA(0-0)<0.1%0.3%2.8%11.4%25.7%32.0%21.0%6.2%0.6%3.2
OklahomaOU(0-0)<0.1%0.3%2.3%9.2%21.2%29.9%24.6%10.7%1.8%3.0
ArkansasARK(0-0)0.0%<0.1%1.1%6.4%19.2%31.6%28.0%12.0%1.8%2.8
VanderbiltVAN(0-0)0.0%<0.1%0.3%2.2%9.4%23.7%33.6%23.9%6.8%2.1
KentuckyUK(0-1)-0.0%<0.1%0.5%4.0%15.2%31.7%34.3%14.2%1.6
Mississippi StMSST(0-0)0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.1%0.9%5.7%20.1%40.3%32.9%1.0

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com