Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W44-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:16% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:86% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:68% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:14% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:26% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:38% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:8% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:42% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:11% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 90.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.3% | 21.7% |
| 5-3 | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 9.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 23.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 33.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 23.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 6.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.3%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
18.8%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
12.3%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%Any 4 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07