Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L17-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W73-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:23% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:91% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:77% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:72% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:80% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:85% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2025-09-14
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 22.1% | 86.6% |
| 6-2 | 33.9% | 25.1% |
| 5-3 | 25.6% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 11.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-14
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-14
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 32.0% (-0.1%) | 32.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 31.7% (-0.3%) | 32.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 32.1% (+0.1%) | 32.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 32.2% (+0.1%) | 32.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 31.8% (-0.3%) | 32.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.4% (+0.4%) | 32.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 33.2% (+1.2%) | 32.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 32.1% (+0.1%) | 32.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 31.8% (-0.2%) | 32.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.8% (+0.8%) | 32.0% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
SE Louisiana
Tulane
Sam Houston
Georgia StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Oklahoma
MiamiCCG: 32.4% • Scenario: 41.7%
Data from 2025-09-14
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.8%Any 1 loss
87.0%
20.3%
100.0%
0.4%
98.0%
1.1%
97.8%
0.4%
97.1%
1.2%97.0%
0.7%
97.0%
1.7%
96.9%
1.4%
94.9%
1.0%
80.6%
12.4%Any 2 losses
29.2%
32.8%97.9%
<0.1%97.7%
0.1%97.4%
0.1%96.9%
0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.3%
0.2%93.2%
<0.1%79.8%
1.4%46.0%
0.1%45.2%
0.3%43.8%
0.2%43.1%
0.2%42.8%
0.4%41.7%
0.5%41.1%
0.2%40.6%
0.5%39.5%
0.1%38.1%
0.4%37.4%
0.1%36.9%
0.6%35.9%
0.4%35.3%
0.5%35.2%
0.1%35.1%
0.3%34.5%
<0.1%32.0%
0.3%29.2%
0.3%29.0%
0.3%26.3%
3.7%26.1%
3.9%23.1%
5.7%22.9%
0.2%22.7%
1.1%20.6%
4.7%18.8%
3.1%11.7%
2.3%Any 3 losses
5.8%
17.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
0.4%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.0%
0.4%26.8%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.2%
0.1%25.0%
0.6%24.4%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%19.3%
0.5%17.3%
0.3%13.3%
0.3%9.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.5%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
1.0%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
1.8%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
1.7%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
1.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.4%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.7%0.7%
1.2%0.5%
2.2%0.5%
0.9%Data from 2025-09-14
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-14