Coastal CarolinaChanticleers
1-1 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.6%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Coastal Carolina's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
Coastal Carolina has a 4.6% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Coastal Carolina's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L24-31 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W45-7 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:24% | |
| 4 | 9/24 | Win prob:57% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:52% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:56% | |
| 7 | 10/16 | Win prob:39% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:40% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:56% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:32% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:15% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.8% | 70.5% |
| 6-2 | 4.8% | 34.7% |
| 5-3 | 14.5% | 11.6% |
| 4-4 | 25.8% | 2.2% |
| 3-5 | 28.0% | 0.0% |
| 2-6 | 18.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 6.7% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 4.6% (+0.0%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.6% (+0.1%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.6% (+0.0%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.6% (+0.0%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.5% (-0.0%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.6% (+0.0%) | 4.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| 4.6% (-0.0%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.4% (-0.1%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.6% (+0.0%) | 4.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 4.7% (+0.1%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.6% (+0.0%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.5% (-0.0%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.6% (-0.0%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.6% (-0.0%) | 4.6% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
79.0%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.4%
<0.1%
89.9%
<0.1%
73.2%
<0.1%
63.9%
<0.1%
43.8%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
50.2%
1.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%92.8%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%83.8%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.4%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%45.8%
0.1%42.9%
0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%33.8%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%15.1%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%11.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
31.3%
4.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%93.4%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%90.1%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.4%
<0.1%87.3%
<0.1%86.0%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%82.4%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%80.9%
<0.1%80.2%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.7%
<0.1%63.5%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.1%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.9%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%44.7%
0.3%43.4%
0.1%42.6%
0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.2%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.5%
<0.1%32.7%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.8%
<0.1%27.2%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.2%
0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
0.1%9.0%
0.2%8.8%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%5.7%
0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.4%
0.2%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17