VirginiaCavaliers
0-0 T1st (0-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Virginia's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
Virginia has a 12.5% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Virginia's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 9/11 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:67% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:84% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:75% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:37% | ||
| 10/23 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:55% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.5% | 99.8% |
| 8-1 | 4.1% | 94.1% |
| 7-2 | 13.1% | 53.5% |
| 6-3 | 24.3% | 4.7% |
| 5-4 | 26.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 19.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 9.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 4.9% (-7.5%) | 16.5% (+4.0%) | |
| 11.9% (-0.5%) | 12.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.4% (-0.1%) | 12.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.6% (+0.2%) | 12.3% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
99.6%
0.3%Any 1 loss
94.9%
2.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.3%
0.1%97.9%
0.1%97.1%
0.1%95.8%
0.1%95.7%
0.2%95.3%
0.3%94.8%
0.2%92.2%
0.5%91.7%
0.4%Any 2 losses
61.6%
8.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.6%
0.2%94.5%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%91.7%
0.1%91.4%
0.2%91.1%
0.2%90.9%
<0.1%87.7%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.9%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.4%
0.1%63.7%
0.2%63.7%
0.1%63.6%
0.1%62.6%
0.2%62.4%
0.2%61.8%
0.1%61.6%
0.1%60.8%
0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.5%
0.2%59.0%
<0.1%56.4%
0.3%55.9%
0.1%55.6%
0.3%55.4%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%54.1%
0.2%53.7%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%51.3%
0.2%51.0%
0.3%50.4%
0.3%50.4%
0.3%50.4%
0.1%50.3%
0.3%49.7%
0.5%44.9%
0.6%42.5%
0.7%41.2%
0.4%Any 3 losses
20.2%
17.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.4%
0.1%69.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.0%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.5%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.7%
0.3%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%56.1%
0.1%55.9%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.6%
0.2%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.5%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%51.3%
0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.9%
0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%49.1%
0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%47.5%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.3%
0.3%44.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.7%
0.2%40.7%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.1%
0.1%38.0%
0.3%35.3%
0.1%35.1%
<0.1%33.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.2%
0.2%7.1%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
0.2%6.7%
0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.2%6.0%
<0.1%6.0%
0.3%5.9%
0.2%5.8%
0.2%5.8%
0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.5%
0.2%5.4%
0.2%5.4%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.1%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.6%
0.3%4.5%
0.2%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
0.4%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.3%3.6%
0.3%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
0.3%3.3%
0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
0.3%2.9%
0.4%2.8%
0.3%2.7%
0.9%2.5%
0.4%2.4%
0.3%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%1.3%
0.6%1.3%
0.4%Any 4 losses
11.8%
9.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%52.7%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.5%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.3%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.4%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26