Virginia

VirginiaCavaliers

2-0 T1st (1-0) in ACC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

21.0%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Virginia's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

Virginia has a 21.0% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Virginia's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

VirginiaSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
08/29
vsNC StateNCSU
W34-8
29/11
vsNorfolk StateNORF
W59-3
39/19
vsWest VirginiaWVU(N)
Win prob:83%
49/26
vsDelawareDEL
Win prob:94%
510/03
@Florida StFSU
Win prob:58%
610/10
vsSyracuseSYR
Win prob:88%
710/17
@SMUSMU
Win prob:38%
810/23
vsDukeDUKE
Win prob:76%
910/31
@Wake ForestWAKE
Win prob:69%
1111/14
vsCaliforniaCAL
Win prob:92%
1211/21
vsNorth CarolinaUNC
Win prob:77%
1311/28
@Virginia TechVT
Win prob:49%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

VirginiaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
3.5%
99.7%
8-1
16.4%
73.0%
7-2
30.4%
17.6%
6-3
28.8%
0.5%
5-4
15.4%
0%
4-5
4.7%
0%
3-6
0.8%
0%
2-7
0.1%
0%
1-8
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Virginia CCG Opponents

if Virginia makes the CCG

MIAMiami FL
83.6%
SMUSMU
8.5%
LOULouisville
4.2%
PITTPittsburgh
1.9%
VTVirginia Tech
1.2%
DUKEDuke
0.3%
CLEMClemson
<0.1%
WAKEWake Forest
<0.1%
UNCNorth Carolina
<0.1%
NCSUNC State
<0.1%
GTGeorgia Tech
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

VirginiaThis Week's Impact

Game
VirginiaCCG OddsAway Wins
VirginiaCCG OddsHome Wins
Thu, Sep 17
SyracuseSYR@PittsburghPITT
23.1%
(+2.1%)		20.6%
(-0.3%)
Fri, Sep 18
Miami FLMIA@Wake ForestWAKE
20.7%
(-0.3%)		26.3%
(+5.3%)
Sat, Sep 19
MercerMER@Georgia TechGT
21.0%
(+0.0%)		21.0%
(+0.0%)
North CarolinaUNC@ClemsonCLEM
21.2%
(+0.2%)		20.8%
(-0.1%)
NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN
21.1%
(+0.1%)		20.9%
(-0.1%)
MaineME@Boston CollegeBC
21.0%
(+0.1%)		21.0%
(-0.0%)
Florida StFSU@AlabamaALA
21.1%
(+0.1%)		21.0%
(-0.0%)
SMUSMU@LouisvilleLOU
20.1%
(-0.9%)		21.8%
(+0.8%)
WagnerWAG@CaliforniaCAL
20.9%
(-0.1%)		21.0%
(+0.0%)
StanfordSTAN@DukeDUKE
20.7%
(-0.3%)		21.0%
(+0.0%)
Virginia TechVT@MarylandMD
21.0%
(+0.0%)		21.0%
(+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA
21.1%
(+0.1%)		20.9%
(-0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

VirginiaLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Virginia CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
99.7%
2.8%
Any 1 loss
74.4%
13.6%
West Virginia
99.8%
0.5%
Delaware
99.8%
0.2%
California
92.9%
0.3%
Duke
89.8%
0.9%
Syracuse
87.6%
0.4%
North Carolina
85.0%
0.8%
Virginia Tech
82.3%
2.8%
Wake Forest
81.0%
1.2%
Florida St
79.4%
2.0%
SMU
54.6%
4.5%
Any 2 losses
24.4%
27.2%
DelawareWest Virginia
99.7%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelaware
92.4%
<0.1%
CaliforniaWest Virginia
92.3%
<0.1%
DelawareSyracuse
91.4%
<0.1%
DukeWest Virginia
91.1%
0.2%
SyracuseWest Virginia
90.4%
<0.1%
DelawareDuke
89.5%
<0.1%
North CarolinaWest Virginia
84.1%
0.2%
DelawareVirginia Tech
82.9%
0.2%
DelawareNorth Carolina
82.7%
<0.1%
Virginia TechWest Virginia
82.5%
0.6%
DelawareWake Forest
81.3%
<0.1%
Wake ForestWest Virginia
81.3%
0.2%
DelawareFlorida St
79.5%
0.1%
Florida StWest Virginia
79.0%
0.4%
SMUWest Virginia
54.1%
0.9%
DelawareSMU
54.1%
0.3%
CaliforniaSyracuse
43.4%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDuke
40.7%
<0.1%
DukeSyracuse
38.1%
0.1%
CaliforniaNorth Carolina
37.9%
<0.1%
CaliforniaWake Forest
37.2%
0.1%
CaliforniaFlorida St
36.7%
0.2%
DukeNorth Carolina
35.9%
0.3%
North CarolinaSyracuse
34.2%
0.1%
DukeFlorida St
34.1%
0.6%
SyracuseWake Forest
33.7%
0.2%
North CarolinaWake Forest
33.3%
0.4%
DukeWake Forest
33.2%
0.4%
Florida StSyracuse
32.4%
0.3%
Florida StWake Forest
30.6%
0.9%
CaliforniaVirginia Tech
29.2%
0.3%
Florida StNorth Carolina
29.2%
0.6%
DukeVirginia Tech
29.0%
0.9%
SyracuseVirginia Tech
28.5%
0.4%
North CarolinaVirginia Tech
26.9%
0.9%
Virginia TechWake Forest
26.0%
1.3%
Florida StVirginia Tech
25.2%
2.0%
DukeSMU
12.7%
1.4%
CaliforniaSMU
11.1%
0.4%
North CarolinaSMU
10.4%
1.4%
SMUSyracuse
9.9%
0.6%
SMUWake Forest
9.5%
2.0%
Florida StSMU
7.8%
3.3%
SMUVirginia Tech
7.2%
4.6%
Any 3 losses
10.4%
12.6%
DelawareSyracuseWest Virginia
93.5%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareWest Virginia
93.1%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
88.2%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeWest Virginia
86.9%
<0.1%
DelawareWake ForestWest Virginia
84.6%
<0.1%
DelawareVirginia TechWest Virginia
81.9%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StWest Virginia
81.4%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareDuke
57.7%
<0.1%
DelawareSMUWest Virginia
50.9%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeSyracuse
45.2%
<0.1%
CaliforniaSyracuseWest Virginia
44.6%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareWake Forest
43.1%
<0.1%
CaliforniaNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
42.9%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDukeWest Virginia
42.4%
<0.1%
DukeNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
41.0%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeNorth Carolina
40.9%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareFlorida St
40.4%
<0.1%
CaliforniaWake ForestWest Virginia
39.5%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSyracuseWest Virginia
39.4%
<0.1%
DukeSyracuseWest Virginia
37.9%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareSyracuse
37.5%
<0.1%
CaliforniaFlorida StWest Virginia
37.3%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeFlorida St
36.5%
<0.1%
DukeFlorida StWest Virginia
36.4%
0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareNorth Carolina
35.7%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeWake Forest
34.8%
<0.1%
DukeWake ForestWest Virginia
34.3%
<0.1%
Florida StSyracuseWest Virginia
34.1%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaSyracuse
33.9%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaWake Forest
33.6%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StSyracuse
33.3%
<0.1%
SyracuseWake ForestWest Virginia
32.4%
<0.1%
North CarolinaWake ForestWest Virginia
32.2%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StWake Forest
32.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareVirginia Tech
31.9%
<0.1%
DelawareSyracuseVirginia Tech
31.2%
<0.1%
CaliforniaVirginia TechWest Virginia
31.1%
<0.1%
Florida StWake ForestWest Virginia
30.8%
0.2%
DelawareSyracuseWake Forest
30.5%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StNorth Carolina
29.2%
<0.1%
Florida StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
28.8%
0.1%
DukeVirginia TechWest Virginia
28.6%
0.2%
SyracuseVirginia TechWest Virginia
28.6%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeVirginia Tech
28.5%
<0.1%
North CarolinaVirginia TechWest Virginia
28.1%
0.2%
Florida StVirginia TechWest Virginia
27.0%
0.4%
DelawareVirginia TechWake Forest
25.0%
<0.1%
Virginia TechWake ForestWest Virginia
24.8%
0.3%
DelawareFlorida StVirginia Tech
24.4%
0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
22.8%
<0.1%
DukeSMUWest Virginia
13.8%
0.3%
CaliforniaSMUWest Virginia
13.0%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeSMU
12.4%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaSMU
11.7%
<0.1%
DelawareSMUWake Forest
10.8%
0.1%
North CarolinaSMUWest Virginia
10.5%
0.3%
CaliforniaDelawareSMU
10.3%
<0.1%
SMUWake ForestWest Virginia
9.7%
0.4%
SMUSyracuseWest Virginia
9.1%
0.1%
DelawareSMUSyracuse
8.7%
<0.1%
Florida StSMUWest Virginia
8.0%
0.7%
SMUVirginia TechWest Virginia
7.8%
0.9%
DelawareFlorida StSMU
7.8%
0.2%
DelawareSMUVirginia Tech
7.4%
0.3%
CaliforniaDukeNorth Carolina
3.8%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDukeSyracuse
3.8%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDukeWake Forest
3.6%
<0.1%
CaliforniaFlorida StSyracuse
2.9%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDukeFlorida St
2.8%
<0.1%
DukeNorth CarolinaSyracuse
2.7%
<0.1%
DukeSyracuseWake Forest
2.6%
<0.1%
DukeFlorida StSyracuse
2.6%
<0.1%
CaliforniaFlorida StNorth Carolina
2.1%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSyracuseWake Forest
2.1%
<0.1%
Florida StNorth CarolinaSyracuse
1.9%
<0.1%
CaliforniaSyracuseWake Forest
1.8%
<0.1%
DukeSyracuseVirginia Tech
1.8%
0.1%
DukeFlorida StWake Forest
1.8%
0.3%
Florida StSyracuseWake Forest
1.8%
0.1%
DukeFlorida StNorth Carolina
1.8%
0.2%
DukeNorth CarolinaWake Forest
1.7%
0.1%
CaliforniaNorth CarolinaWake Forest
1.7%
<0.1%
Florida StNorth CarolinaWake Forest
1.5%
0.3%
Florida StSyracuseVirginia Tech
1.5%
0.3%
North CarolinaSyracuseVirginia Tech
1.4%
0.1%
North CarolinaVirginia TechWake Forest
1.2%
0.4%
Florida StNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
1.1%
0.6%
CaliforniaNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
1.1%
<0.1%
DukeVirginia TechWake Forest
1.1%
0.4%
CaliforniaFlorida StWake Forest
1.1%
<0.1%
DukeFlorida StVirginia Tech
1.0%
0.7%
DukeNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
1.0%
0.3%
SyracuseVirginia TechWake Forest
1.0%
0.2%
CaliforniaDukeVirginia Tech
0.9%
<0.1%
Florida StVirginia TechWake Forest
0.9%
0.9%
CaliforniaVirginia TechWake Forest
0.9%
0.1%
CaliforniaSMUSyracuse
0.7%
<0.1%
CaliforniaFlorida StVirginia Tech
0.7%
0.2%
CaliforniaNorth CarolinaSMU
0.7%
0.1%
Any 4 losses
3.2%
2.2%
CaliforniaDelawareSyracuseWest Virginia
50.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareWake ForestWest Virginia
46.2%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareVirginia TechWest Virginia
44.0%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
38.1%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeFlorida StWest Virginia
37.7%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeWake ForestWest Virginia
36.5%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StSyracuseWest Virginia
35.3%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
33.9%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeSyracuseWest Virginia
33.3%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StWake ForestWest Virginia
32.2%
<0.1%
DelawareSyracuseWake ForestWest Virginia
32.1%
<0.1%
DelawareVirginia TechWake ForestWest Virginia
30.4%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaSyracuseWest Virginia
30.0%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeVirginia TechWest Virginia
28.6%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareDukeWest Virginia
28.6%
<0.1%
DelawareSyracuseVirginia TechWest Virginia
28.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StVirginia TechWest Virginia
27.7%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaVirginia TechWest Virginia
25.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareFlorida StWest Virginia
20.0%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaWake ForestWest Virginia
17.4%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaSMUWest Virginia
14.7%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeNorth CarolinaSyracuse
13.0%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeSMUWest Virginia
11.6%
<0.1%
DelawareSMUVirginia TechWest Virginia
9.1%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareSMUWest Virginia
8.7%
<0.1%
DelawareSMUSyracuseWest Virginia
8.6%
<0.1%
DelawareSMUWake ForestWest Virginia
8.2%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeSyracuseWake Forest
7.7%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StSMUWest Virginia
5.7%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareNorth CarolinaWake Forest
5.6%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareFlorida StWake Forest
4.7%
<0.1%
DukeNorth CarolinaSyracuseWest Virginia
4.2%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareFlorida StNorth Carolina
3.9%
<0.1%
CaliforniaNorth CarolinaVirginia TechWest Virginia
3.6%
<0.1%
CaliforniaFlorida StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
3.0%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StSyracuseVirginia Tech
2.8%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareDukeFlorida St
2.7%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeSyracuseVirginia Tech
2.6%
<0.1%
CaliforniaNorth CarolinaWake ForestWest Virginia
2.5%
<0.1%
DukeFlorida StNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
2.5%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaSyracuseWake Forest
2.4%
<0.1%
Florida StNorth CarolinaSyracuseWest Virginia
2.3%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeFlorida StSyracuse
2.1%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDukeNorth CarolinaWest Virginia
2.1%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StNorth CarolinaSyracuse
2.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
2.0%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
1.9%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeFlorida StNorth Carolina
1.8%
<0.1%
DukeNorth CarolinaWake ForestWest Virginia
1.8%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaSyracuseVirginia Tech
1.7%
<0.1%
Florida StNorth CarolinaWake ForestWest Virginia
1.7%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaSMUSyracuse
1.7%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSyracuseWake ForestWest Virginia
1.6%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDukeFlorida StWest Virginia
1.6%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
1.5%
<0.1%
SyracuseVirginia TechWake ForestWest Virginia
1.5%
<0.1%
Florida StSyracuseWake ForestWest Virginia
1.5%
<0.1%
DukeFlorida StWake ForestWest Virginia
1.5%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDukeWake ForestWest Virginia
1.5%
<0.1%
CaliforniaFlorida StVirginia TechWest Virginia
1.4%
<0.1%
CaliforniaSyracuseVirginia TechWest Virginia
1.4%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareNorth CarolinaSMU
1.4%
<0.1%
DukeNorth CarolinaVirginia TechWest Virginia
1.3%
<0.1%
Florida StNorth CarolinaVirginia TechWest Virginia
1.3%
0.1%
DelawareDukeFlorida StWake Forest
1.2%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDukeVirginia TechWest Virginia
1.1%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StVirginia TechWake Forest
1.1%
<0.1%
North CarolinaVirginia TechWake ForestWest Virginia
1.1%
<0.1%
DukeFlorida StVirginia TechWest Virginia
1.1%
0.1%
DelawareDukeFlorida StVirginia Tech
1.1%
<0.1%
DukeSyracuseWake ForestWest Virginia
1.0%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeSMUSyracuse
1.0%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaVirginia TechWake Forest
1.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaDelawareFlorida StVirginia Tech
0.9%
<0.1%
Florida StVirginia TechWake ForestWest Virginia
0.9%
0.2%
DelawareDukeVirginia TechWake Forest
0.9%
<0.1%
Florida StSyracuseVirginia TechWest Virginia
0.9%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSyracuseVirginia TechWest Virginia
0.9%
<0.1%
Florida StSMUSyracuseWest Virginia
0.8%
<0.1%
DelawareSyracuseVirginia TechWake Forest
0.8%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeNorth CarolinaSMU
0.8%
<0.1%
DukeVirginia TechWake ForestWest Virginia
0.7%
<0.1%
DelawareFlorida StNorth CarolinaWake Forest
0.6%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSMUWake ForestWest Virginia
0.6%
0.1%
DukeFlorida StSyracuseWest Virginia
0.6%
<0.1%
DelawareNorth CarolinaSMUVirginia Tech
0.6%
<0.1%
SMUSyracuseWake ForestWest Virginia
0.5%
<0.1%
DelawareDukeSMUWake Forest
0.5%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

VirginiaCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com