OhioBobcats
0-0 T1st (0-0) in MAC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
24.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Ohio's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Ohio has a 24.6% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Ohio's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:13% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:57% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:67% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:67% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 11/03 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 11/10 | Win prob:42% | ||
| 11/17 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:44% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.8% | 97.4% |
| 6-2 | 21.6% | 59.8% |
| 5-3 | 28.8% | 5.7% |
| 4-4 | 23.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 11.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 24.1% (-0.5%) | 25.3% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 22.0% • Scenario: 57.9%
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.2%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
90.5%
3.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.3%98.9%
0.2%98.8%
0.2%97.9%
<0.1%97.7%
0.2%96.4%
0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.8%
0.5%95.8%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.7%
0.4%94.4%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%50.8%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
71.1%
11.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%99.4%
0.3%99.2%
0.1%99.1%
0.1%99.0%
<0.1%98.9%
0.3%98.8%
<0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.6%
<0.1%98.5%
0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.9%
0.3%97.8%
<0.1%97.7%
0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.2%
0.5%96.2%
0.4%95.6%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.2%
0.3%92.9%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.6%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.6%
0.2%76.4%
0.2%75.9%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.0%
<0.1%73.5%
0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%72.7%
0.2%72.6%
0.1%72.4%
<0.1%71.3%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
0.2%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.9%
0.2%63.6%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.7%
0.2%60.9%
<0.1%59.9%
0.2%59.7%
0.5%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.9%
0.2%50.4%
0.4%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.8%
0.2%47.9%
<0.1%46.7%
0.2%46.6%
0.2%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.7%
<0.1%34.2%
0.6%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
42.8%
19.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.1%
0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.5%
0.3%98.2%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%96.4%
0.4%95.9%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.2%
0.3%95.2%
<0.1%94.5%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.1%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%80.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%79.1%
0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
0.2%77.8%
<0.1%77.0%
0.2%76.4%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.8%
0.1%74.5%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%74.1%
0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%73.1%
0.1%72.7%
0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.1%
0.1%70.8%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.3%
<0.1%68.8%
0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.2%
0.1%65.0%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.8%
0.2%63.6%
0.1%63.1%
0.2%63.0%
0.1%62.2%
0.4%61.8%
<0.1%61.6%
0.2%60.9%
<0.1%60.8%
<0.1%60.7%
0.3%60.4%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%59.8%
0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.9%
0.2%58.9%
0.2%58.3%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%58.1%
0.4%57.9%
<0.1%57.7%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
0.2%55.6%
0.1%55.4%
0.2%55.3%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.9%
0.4%54.9%
0.1%54.7%
0.2%53.1%
<0.1%52.7%
0.3%52.4%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%52.1%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%48.9%
0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.6%
0.2%47.1%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.2%
0.6%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.1%
0.5%33.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
0.1%8.9%
0.2%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.4%
0.1%6.4%
0.1%6.4%
0.3%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
0.3%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.7%
0.2%4.6%
0.2%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
0.6%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
0.3%4.1%
<0.1%3.9%
0.3%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
0.3%3.1%
0.2%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26