OhioBobcats
1-1 T2nd (0-0) in MAC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
20.9%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Ohio's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Ohio has a 20.9% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Ohio's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L21-49 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W29-27 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:37% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:78% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:83% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:86% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:82% | |
| 10 | 11/03 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/10 | Win prob:45% | |
| 12 | 11/17 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:32% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.3% | 99.8% |
| 7-1 | 16.6% | 71.8% |
| 6-2 | 31.3% | 17.8% |
| 5-3 | 28.8% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 14.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 20.7% (-0.2%) | 20.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 20.8% (-0.1%) | 20.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 20.8% (-0.1%) | 20.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 20.8% (-0.1%) | 20.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 20.4% (-0.5%) | 20.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 20.8% (-0.0%) | 20.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 20.9% (+0.0%) | 20.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.3% (+0.5%) | 20.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 21.0% (+0.1%) | 20.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 20.9% (-0.0%) | 20.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 20.9% (+0.1%) | 20.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 20.9% (+0.0%) | 20.8% (-0.1%) | ||
| 20.9% (+0.0%) | 20.4% (-0.4%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
1.1%Any 1 loss
79.4%
7.4%
99.9%
0.1%
99.8%
1.9%
90.2%
0.2%
88.7%
0.3%
87.7%
0.2%
87.7%
0.3%
87.2%
0.7%
82.2%
0.2%
79.7%
1.3%
54.6%
2.3%Any 2 losses
45.1%
20.7%99.8%
0.2%92.6%
<0.1%89.8%
0.3%89.8%
0.4%88.8%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.4%
0.6%88.3%
<0.1%88.2%
0.4%86.9%
1.2%86.6%
<0.1%81.1%
0.4%80.2%
0.2%79.8%
2.3%79.7%
<0.1%59.9%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%54.8%
0.3%54.5%
4.0%52.3%
<0.1%52.2%
0.1%51.0%
0.1%50.8%
0.2%50.7%
<0.1%49.6%
<0.1%49.0%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%40.9%
0.2%39.1%
0.1%32.7%
0.2%32.7%
0.4%30.6%
0.3%26.8%
0.3%26.0%
0.3%25.9%
0.8%16.4%
0.4%14.0%
0.5%13.1%
0.7%11.6%
0.5%8.3%
0.5%7.7%
1.4%5.0%
2.8%Any 3 losses
19.0%
22.0%87.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%85.2%
0.1%80.9%
<0.1%80.5%
0.3%61.9%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.2%
<0.1%57.0%
0.1%55.1%
0.4%54.9%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%51.0%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%49.6%
<0.1%49.3%
<0.1%49.2%
0.2%49.1%
0.2%49.0%
<0.1%48.5%
0.1%48.0%
0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%47.0%
<0.1%44.1%
0.3%44.0%
<0.1%43.7%
<0.1%42.6%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.1%
0.1%41.1%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.6%
0.3%37.2%
<0.1%33.4%
0.6%33.4%
<0.1%33.2%
0.4%33.1%
<0.1%32.0%
0.5%29.1%
<0.1%28.7%
0.5%27.8%
<0.1%27.1%
0.5%25.4%
<0.1%25.2%
1.4%18.0%
<0.1%16.2%
0.7%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
1.2%13.0%
0.9%11.9%
<0.1%11.9%
0.8%10.3%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.8%
0.9%8.2%
2.4%7.0%
0.2%5.8%
0.3%5.4%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
4.9%3.3%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.7%
0.2%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.1%0.6%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17