OhioBobcats
6-2 1st (4-0) in MAC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
46.2%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Ohio's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Ohio has a 46.2% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Ohio's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Ohio need to do to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Ohio's Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 71.1%.
What is the biggest game this week for Ohio's Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds?
Ohio's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Akron would put its Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds at 50.0%, while a loss would drop them to 23.4%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L21-49 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W29-27 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | L36-41 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W35-7 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W13-10 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W31-14 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W48-7 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | W24-20 | |
| 10 | 11/03 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/10 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/17 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:40% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 14.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 42.0% | 71.1% |
| 6-2 | 35.1% | 4.9% |
| 5-3 | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 3Tuesday, November 3 | |||
| 50.0% (+3.8%) | 23.4% (-22.8%) | ||
| 44.2% (-2.0%) | 47.1% (+0.9%) | ||
| Wed, Nov 4Wednesday, November 4 | |||
| 46.3% (+0.1%) | 46.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 46.0% (-0.2%) | 58.0% (+11.8%) | ||
| 46.3% (+0.1%) | 46.1% (-0.1%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Ohio
Sacramento State
Central Michigan
Miami (OH)
MassachusettsCCG: 67.0% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OhioCCG: 51.1% • Scenario: 85.7%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02