Georgia St

Georgia StatePanthers

2-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

5.1%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Georgia State's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

Georgia State has a 5.1% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Georgia State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Georgia StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/04
vsNorth Carolina A&TNCAT
W59-10
29/12
@KennesawKENN
W31-17
39/19
@UCFUCF
Win prob:9%
49/26
vsN IllinoisNIU
Win prob:83%
510/03
vsOld DominionODU
Win prob:51%
710/17
@James MadisonJMU
Win prob:16%
810/24
@Arkansas StARST
Win prob:41%
910/31
vsCoastal CarCCU
Win prob:60%
1011/07
@Appalachian StAPP
Win prob:26%
1111/14
vsGa SouthernGASO
Win prob:54%
1211/21
@MarshallMRSH
Win prob:58%
1311/28
vsLouisianaUL
Win prob:50%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Georgia StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.1%
100.0%
7-1
1.1%
69.0%
6-2
6.1%
31.4%
5-3
17.0%
10.3%
4-4
27.4%
2.1%
3-5
27.0%
0.0%
2-6
15.7%
0%
1-7
5.0%
0%
0-8
0.7%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Georgia St CCG Opponents

if Georgia St makes the CCG

LTLouisiana Tech
22.7%
ULLouisiana
22.5%
USMSouthern Miss
19.8%
USASouth Alabama
13.1%
TROYTroy
11.2%
ARSTArkansas St
10.8%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Georgia StThis Week's Impact

Game
Georgia StCCG OddsAway Wins
Georgia StCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
Coastal CarCCU@DelawareDEL
5.1%
(-0.0%)		5.1%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
5.1%
(+0.0%)		5.1%
(+0.0%)
SE LouisianaSELA@ULMULM
5.1%
(+0.0%)		5.1%
(+0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@Appalachian StAPP
5.1%
(-0.0%)		5.1%
(+0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
5.1%
(+0.0%)		5.1%
(+0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Missouri StMOST
5.1%
(+0.0%)		5.1%
(-0.0%)
Ga SouthernGASO@Jacksonville StJXST
5.1%
(+0.0%)		5.1%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
5.2%
(+0.1%)		5.1%
(-0.0%)
OhioOHIO@South AlabamaUSA
5.0%
(-0.1%)		5.2%
(+0.0%)
TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ
4.9%
(-0.2%)		5.1%
(+0.0%)
UConnCONN@Southern MissUSM
5.1%
(+0.0%)		5.1%
(+0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
4.9%
(-0.2%)		5.1%
(+0.0%)
UABUAB@LouisianaUL
5.0%
(-0.1%)		5.1%
(+0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@San Diego StSDSU
5.1%
(-0.0%)		5.1%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Georgia StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Georgia St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
82.8%
0.1%
UCF
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas St
100.0%
<0.1%
N Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
Marshall
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal Car
90.5%
<0.1%
Ga Southern
86.7%
<0.1%
Old Dominion
83.3%
<0.1%
Appalachian St
74.0%
<0.1%
James Madison
41.8%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
57.3%
1.4%
Arkansas StUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarshall
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMarshall
98.4%
<0.1%
MarshallUCF
98.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal Car
96.6%
<0.1%
MarshallN Illinois
93.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarUCF
88.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisiana
87.5%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernUCF
86.3%
<0.1%
N IllinoisOld Dominion
85.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisiana
84.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa Southern
84.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld Dominion
81.7%
<0.1%
Old DominionUCF
81.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StOld Dominion
80.7%
<0.1%
Appalachian StUCF
68.3%
0.2%
Appalachian StN Illinois
65.7%
<0.1%
Appalachian StLouisiana
65.5%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas St
65.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames Madison
47.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMarshall
46.2%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana
45.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMarshall
45.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonUCF
42.0%
0.3%
James MadisonN Illinois
40.3%
<0.1%
MarshallOld Dominion
32.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa Southern
26.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld Dominion
23.3%
<0.1%
Appalachian StMarshall
20.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernOld Dominion
13.6%
<0.1%
James MadisonMarshall
12.1%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal Car
11.9%
<0.1%
Appalachian StOld Dominion
10.1%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGa Southern
9.6%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames Madison
6.8%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames Madison
6.8%
<0.1%
James MadisonOld Dominion
3.6%
<0.1%
Appalachian StJames Madison
2.7%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
30.3%
5.6%
Arkansas StLouisianaUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StN IllinoisUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaN IllinoisUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaMarshall
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMarshallN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarshallN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMarshallUCF
99.7%
<0.1%
MarshallN IllinoisUCF
99.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarshallUCF
98.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarN IllinoisUCF
94.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernN Illinois
93.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarLouisiana
91.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaUCF
90.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarUCF
88.5%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaUCF
86.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernUCF
85.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernN IllinoisUCF
84.8%
<0.1%
LouisianaN IllinoisOld Dominion
84.6%
<0.1%
N IllinoisOld DominionUCF
84.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaOld Dominion
83.8%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionUCF
81.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernLouisiana
81.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaN Illinois
80.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StOld DominionUCF
79.6%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StN Illinois
72.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StN IllinoisOld Dominion
70.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StUCF
68.4%
0.3%
Appalachian StLouisianaUCF
67.7%
0.2%
Appalachian StN IllinoisUCF
67.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StLouisianaN Illinois
62.9%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StLouisiana
62.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMarshallN Illinois
50.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonN Illinois
47.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisiana
45.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonUCF
44.1%
0.5%
James MadisonLouisianaUCF
44.0%
0.3%
LouisianaMarshallOld Dominion
43.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernMarshall
40.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMarshallN Illinois
40.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonN IllinoisUCF
39.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMarshallUCF
39.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarMarshall
38.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMarshallUCF
36.7%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaN Illinois
35.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaMarshall
34.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernLouisiana
33.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarGa Southern
32.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMarshallOld Dominion
31.4%
<0.1%
MarshallOld DominionUCF
31.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaMarshall
30.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaOld Dominion
26.1%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StMarshall
25.5%
<0.1%
Appalachian StLouisianaMarshall
25.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernUCF
25.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernN Illinois
25.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StMarshallUCF
22.0%
0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionUCF
20.3%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StCoastal Car
19.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarOld Dominion
19.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernOld Dominion
18.3%
<0.1%
MarshallN IllinoisOld Dominion
18.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernOld DominionUCF
16.9%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal CarLouisiana
16.4%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal CarUCF
16.2%
0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonN Illinois
16.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StMarshallN Illinois
14.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarN IllinoisOld Dominion
14.3%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaMarshall
14.1%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StGa Southern
14.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonMarshallUCF
13.9%
0.2%
Appalachian StLouisianaOld Dominion
13.6%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGa SouthernLouisiana
13.2%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal CarN Illinois
13.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonMarshallN Illinois
12.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonMarshall
11.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonLouisiana
11.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernN IllinoisOld Dominion
11.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaOld Dominion
10.9%
<0.1%
Appalachian StOld DominionUCF
10.1%
0.2%
Appalachian StGa SouthernUCF
10.0%
0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StOld Dominion
9.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernJames Madison
8.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonUCF
8.1%
0.2%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisiana
8.1%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaOld Dominion
7.7%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGa SouthernN Illinois
7.7%
<0.1%
Appalachian StN IllinoisOld Dominion
7.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarJames Madison
7.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonOld Dominion
6.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonUCF
5.6%
0.3%
James MadisonOld DominionUCF
4.5%
0.3%
Appalachian StArkansas StJames Madison
3.6%
0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonN Illinois
3.3%
<0.1%
James MadisonN IllinoisOld Dominion
2.9%
<0.1%
Appalachian StJames MadisonUCF
2.7%
0.9%
Appalachian StJames MadisonLouisiana
2.6%
<0.1%
Appalachian StJames MadisonN Illinois
2.4%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
18.2%
9.4%
Arkansas StLouisianaN IllinoisUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaMarshallN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarLouisianaN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaMarshallUCF
99.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarshallN IllinoisUCF
98.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMarshallN IllinoisUCF
96.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarLouisianaUCF
93.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarN IllinoisUCF
90.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernN IllinoisUCF
88.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaN IllinoisUCF
87.8%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaN IllinoisUCF
86.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StN IllinoisOld DominionUCF
85.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernLouisianaUCF
85.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaN IllinoisOld Dominion
84.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaOld DominionUCF
83.4%
<0.1%
LouisianaN IllinoisOld DominionUCF
82.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernLouisianaN Illinois
75.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StLouisianaN Illinois
74.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StN IllinoisUCF
70.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StLouisianaUCF
68.9%
0.3%
Appalachian StLouisianaN IllinoisUCF
68.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarMarshallN Illinois
62.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaMarshallUCF
48.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarLouisianaMarshall
46.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernMarshallN Illinois
45.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisianaUCF
45.1%
0.5%
Arkansas StJames MadisonN IllinoisUCF
44.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarMarshallUCF
44.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaN IllinoisUCF
43.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernLouisianaMarshall
42.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMarshallN IllinoisUCF
42.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaMarshallOld Dominion
41.4%
<0.1%
MarshallN IllinoisOld DominionUCF
40.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaMarshallN Illinois
40.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarshallN IllinoisOld Dominion
40.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisianaN Illinois
38.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernMarshallUCF
36.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMarshallN IllinoisUCF
35.8%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaMarshallUCF
34.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMarshallN IllinoisOld Dominion
33.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaN IllinoisOld Dominion
33.3%
<0.1%
Appalachian StLouisianaMarshallN Illinois
32.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarshallOld DominionUCF
31.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMarshallOld DominionUCF
30.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernN IllinoisOld Dominion
30.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarN IllinoisOld Dominion
26.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernLouisianaN Illinois
25.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StLouisianaMarshallUCF
24.8%
0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarGa SouthernUCF
24.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernLouisianaUCF
24.6%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StLouisianaMarshall
24.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarGa SouthernLouisiana
24.1%
<0.1%
Appalachian StMarshallN IllinoisUCF
24.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StMarshallUCF
23.9%
0.2%
Arkansas StCoastal CarOld DominionUCF
22.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaOld DominionUCF
22.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernLouisianaOld Dominion
22.4%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StMarshallN Illinois
20.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarLouisianaOld Dominion
20.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernN IllinoisUCF
20.3%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaMarshallN Illinois
20.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StCoastal CarN Illinois
20.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaMarshallN Illinois
20.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernOld DominionUCF
19.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarN IllinoisOld DominionUCF
18.4%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaOld DominionUCF
16.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernN IllinoisOld DominionUCF
15.6%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StCoastal CarUCF
15.5%
0.2%
Appalachian StArkansas StCoastal CarLouisiana
15.2%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StGa SouthernN Illinois
15.1%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StGa SouthernLouisiana
15.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal CarLouisianaUCF
15.0%
0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaMarshallUCF
14.5%
0.2%
Arkansas StJames MadisonMarshallUCF
14.2%
0.4%
Arkansas StJames MadisonMarshallN Illinois
14.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisianaMarshall
13.8%
<0.1%
James MadisonMarshallN IllinoisUCF
12.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarGa SouthernN Illinois
12.5%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaN IllinoisOld Dominion
12.5%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal CarN IllinoisUCF
12.4%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGa SouthernLouisianaUCF
12.3%
0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StLouisianaOld Dominion
11.8%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StGa SouthernUCF
11.7%
0.2%
Appalachian StCoastal CarLouisianaN Illinois
11.5%
<0.1%
Appalachian StLouisianaN IllinoisOld Dominion
11.4%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGa SouthernN IllinoisUCF
11.4%
<0.1%
Appalachian StLouisianaOld DominionUCF
11.1%
0.2%
Appalachian StArkansas StOld DominionUCF
10.8%
0.3%
Appalachian StArkansas StN IllinoisOld Dominion
9.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarJames MadisonLouisiana
9.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StCoastal CarJames MadisonUCF
9.2%
0.3%
Appalachian StN IllinoisOld DominionUCF
8.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonLouisianaUCF
8.8%
0.2%
Arkansas StCoastal CarJames MadisonN Illinois
7.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonN IllinoisUCF
7.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisianaOld Dominion
6.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernJames MadisonUCF
6.1%
0.4%
James MadisonLouisianaN IllinoisOld Dominion
6.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisianaUCF
5.9%
0.3%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonN IllinoisUCF
5.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernJames MadisonLouisiana
5.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonOld DominionUCF
5.5%
0.5%
James MadisonLouisianaOld DominionUCF
5.3%
0.3%
Arkansas StGa SouthernJames MadisonN Illinois
4.9%
<0.1%
James MadisonN IllinoisOld DominionUCF
4.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonLouisianaN Illinois
4.8%
<0.1%
Appalachian StArkansas StJames MadisonN Illinois
3.5%
<0.1%
Appalachian StJames MadisonLouisianaUCF
3.5%
0.9%
Appalachian StArkansas StJames MadisonUCF
3.1%
1.3%
Appalachian StJames MadisonN IllinoisUCF
3.0%
0.2%
Appalachian StArkansas StJames MadisonLouisiana
3.0%
0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonN IllinoisOld Dominion
2.9%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGa SouthernLouisianaN Illinois
2.5%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisianaN Illinois
1.7%
<0.1%
Appalachian StJames MadisonLouisianaN Illinois
1.1%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal CarGa SouthernLouisiana
0.9%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Georgia StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com