Arkansas StateRed Wolves
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Arkansas State's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
Arkansas State has a 12.6% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Arkansas State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:28% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:14% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:42% | ||
| 10/08 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:35% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:77% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:51% | ||
| 11/19 | Win prob:45% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:52% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.3% | 80.0% |
| 6-2 | 14.1% | 36.7% |
| 5-3 | 25.5% | 11.1% |
| 4-4 | 27.8% | 2.1% |
| 3-5 | 18.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 7.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
91.9%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
74.5%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
0.1%73.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%65.3%
0.1%63.8%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
55.7%
5.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.8%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.9%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.4%
0.2%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.5%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.7%
0.2%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.3%
0.1%61.1%
0.3%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.1%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
38.6%
10.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
0.1%84.3%
0.2%83.7%
0.1%83.3%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
0.2%82.9%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.2%
<0.1%80.6%
0.2%80.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.7%
0.2%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.0%
0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.7%
0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.5%
0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
0.1%61.8%
0.3%60.7%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.4%
0.2%58.6%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.5%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.0%
0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
0.3%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.8%
0.2%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.6%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
0.1%11.9%
0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.4%
0.2%11.4%
0.2%11.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.2%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.2%
0.4%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.8%
0.4%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
0.3%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26