Arkansas St

Arkansas StateRed Wolves

1-1 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

10.1%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Arkansas State's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

Arkansas State has a 10.1% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Arkansas State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Arkansas StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
@MemphisMEM
L24-42
29/12
vsWest GeorgiaWGA
W52-7
39/19
@TCUTCU
Win prob:7%
49/26
vsKennesawKENN
Win prob:64%
510/03
@LouisianaUL
Win prob:34%
610/08
vsSouth AlabamaUSA
Win prob:56%
710/17
@Southern MissUSM
Win prob:36%
810/24
vsGeorgia StGAST
Win prob:59%
1011/07
vsULMULM
Win prob:92%
1111/14
@Coastal CarCCU
Win prob:44%
1211/21
@Louisiana TechLT
Win prob:35%
1311/28
vsTroyTROY
Win prob:58%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Arkansas StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.3%
100.0%
7-1
3.0%
76.7%
6-2
11.6%
35.8%
5-3
24.1%
11.0%
4-4
29.4%
2.1%
3-5
21.2%
0%
2-6
8.6%
0%
1-7
1.7%
0%
0-8
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Arkansas St CCG Opponents

if Arkansas St makes the CCG

JMUJames Madison
45.7%
APPAppalachian St
24.4%
ODUOld Dominion
10.3%
GASOGa Southern
8.5%
GASTGeorgia St
5.4%
CCUCoastal Car
4.9%
MRSHMarshall
0.8%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Arkansas StThis Week's Impact

Game
Arkansas StCCG OddsAway Wins
Arkansas StCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
Coastal CarCCU@DelawareDEL
10.1%
(+0.0%)		10.1%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
10.0%
(-0.1%)		10.1%
(+0.0%)
SE LouisianaSELA@ULMULM
9.9%
(-0.2%)		10.1%
(+0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@Appalachian StAPP
10.1%
(+0.0%)		10.1%
(-0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
10.1%
(-0.0%)		10.1%
(+0.1%)
MarshallMRSH@Missouri StMOST
10.1%
(-0.0%)		10.1%
(+0.0%)
Ga SouthernGASO@Jacksonville StJXST
10.1%
(+0.0%)		10.1%
(-0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
10.2%
(+0.1%)		10.1%
(-0.0%)
OhioOHIO@South AlabamaUSA
10.1%
(+0.0%)		10.1%
(-0.0%)
TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ
10.3%
(+0.2%)		10.1%
(+0.0%)
UConnCONN@Southern MissUSM
10.1%
(+0.0%)		10.1%
(-0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
10.3%
(+0.2%)		10.1%
(-0.0%)
UABUAB@LouisianaUL
10.1%
(+0.0%)		10.1%
(-0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@San Diego StSDSU
10.1%
(-0.0%)		10.1%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Arkansas StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Arkansas St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
91.1%
0.3%
TCU
100.0%
0.2%
Coastal Car
100.0%
<0.1%
Kennesaw
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia St
100.0%
<0.1%
ULM
100.0%
<0.1%
South Alabama
77.7%
<0.1%
Troy
75.4%
<0.1%
Louisiana
72.0%
<0.1%
Southern Miss
70.8%
<0.1%
Louisiana Tech
68.8%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
69.6%
2.5%
Coastal CarTCU
100.0%
0.2%
Georgia StTCU
100.0%
0.1%
KennesawTCU
100.0%
0.1%
TCUULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StKennesaw
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia St
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarKennesaw
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StTroy
81.5%
<0.1%
KennesawSouth Alabama
80.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarTroy
80.4%
<0.1%
TCUTroy
78.5%
0.1%
Coastal CarSouth Alabama
75.2%
<0.1%
South AlabamaTCU
74.6%
0.1%
KennesawTroy
74.6%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisiana
73.6%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouth Alabama
73.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisiana Tech
72.2%
<0.1%
Southern MissTCU
70.5%
0.4%
KennesawSouthern Miss
70.4%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouthern Miss
70.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisiana
69.8%
<0.1%
LouisianaTCU
68.3%
0.4%
Coastal CarSouthern Miss
67.4%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTCU
66.5%
0.4%
KennesawLouisiana Tech
66.1%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisiana Tech
65.4%
<0.1%
KennesawLouisiana
63.3%
<0.1%
South AlabamaULM
42.9%
<0.1%
TroyULM
40.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaULM
35.3%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechULM
34.5%
<0.1%
Southern MissULM
25.0%
<0.1%
South AlabamaTroy
11.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaTroy
11.5%
<0.1%
Southern MissTroy
10.5%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTroy
9.5%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouth Alabama
7.9%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouthern Miss
7.8%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
7.6%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouthern Miss
7.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaLouisiana Tech
6.6%
<0.1%
South AlabamaSouthern Miss
6.6%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
39.0%
8.8%
Georgia StKennesawTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarKennesawTCU
100.0%
0.1%
Georgia StTCUULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StTCU
100.0%
0.2%
Coastal CarGeorgia StKennesaw
100.0%
<0.1%
KennesawTCUULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StKennesawULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarTCUULM
99.6%
<0.1%
Coastal CarKennesawULM
92.9%
<0.1%
Georgia StKennesawTroy
86.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarKennesawSouth Alabama
83.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StTroy
79.8%
<0.1%
Georgia StTCUTroy
79.6%
<0.1%
Coastal CarTCUTroy
79.4%
0.2%
KennesawTCUTroy
76.8%
<0.1%
KennesawSouth AlabamaTCU
75.8%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouth AlabamaTCU
75.7%
0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StSouthern Miss
75.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaTCU
75.3%
0.2%
Coastal CarGeorgia StSouth Alabama
75.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarKennesawTroy
74.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarKennesawSouthern Miss
73.1%
<0.1%
Georgia StKennesawLouisiana
72.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StKennesawSouth Alabama
70.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StLouisiana
70.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouthern MissTCU
69.9%
0.4%
Georgia StSouthern MissTCU
69.2%
0.3%
KennesawSouthern MissTCU
69.1%
0.2%
KennesawLouisiana TechTCU
69.0%
0.2%
Coastal CarLouisiana TechTCU
68.2%
0.5%
Georgia StKennesawSouthern Miss
67.7%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisiana TechTCU
67.7%
0.3%
KennesawLouisianaTCU
67.6%
0.2%
Coastal CarGeorgia StLouisiana Tech
67.5%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisianaTCU
67.4%
0.3%
Coastal CarLouisianaTCU
66.8%
0.5%
Coastal CarKennesawLouisiana Tech
64.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarKennesawLouisiana
63.9%
<0.1%
Georgia StKennesawLouisiana Tech
63.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarTroyULM
60.0%
<0.1%
KennesawSouth AlabamaULM
60.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaULM
43.8%
<0.1%
KennesawSouthern MissULM
41.7%
<0.1%
Southern MissTCUULM
40.6%
<0.1%
TCUTroyULM
35.9%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouthern MissULM
35.7%
<0.1%
South AlabamaTCUULM
34.3%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouth AlabamaULM
33.3%
<0.1%
Georgia StTroyULM
30.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaTCUULM
29.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouthern MissULM
29.6%
<0.1%
KennesawLouisiana TechULM
29.4%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTCUULM
29.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisiana TechULM
28.6%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaULM
26.5%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisiana TechULM
24.0%
<0.1%
KennesawSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
18.2%
<0.1%
KennesawLouisianaULM
15.4%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisianaULM
14.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaTroy
13.3%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisianaSouth Alabama
12.0%
<0.1%
South AlabamaTCUTroy
11.8%
0.1%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
11.7%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouthern MissTroy
11.2%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisianaTroy
11.0%
<0.1%
KennesawSouth AlabamaTroy
10.8%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
10.1%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouth AlabamaTroy
9.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaTroy
9.5%
<0.1%
KennesawLouisiana TechSouth Alabama
9.4%
<0.1%
LouisianaTCUTroy
9.1%
0.3%
Southern MissTCUTroy
9.1%
0.3%
Coastal CarLouisianaSouth Alabama
8.9%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTCUTroy
8.7%
0.3%
Louisiana TechSouth AlabamaTCU
8.5%
0.3%
LouisianaSouth AlabamaTCU
8.3%
0.3%
KennesawLouisiana TechTroy
8.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaSouthern Miss
8.2%
<0.1%
South AlabamaSouthern MissTCU
8.0%
0.3%
Coastal CarLouisiana TechSouth Alabama
7.8%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouthern MissTCU
7.6%
0.7%
KennesawSouthern MissTroy
7.6%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisiana TechSouthern Miss
7.4%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisianaSouthern Miss
7.3%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouthern MissTCU
7.2%
0.7%
Coastal CarLouisianaLouisiana Tech
7.2%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisianaLouisiana Tech
7.2%
<0.1%
KennesawLouisiana TechSouthern Miss
7.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaLouisiana TechTCU
7.1%
0.7%
Georgia StLouisiana TechSouthern Miss
7.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouthern MissTroy
6.6%
<0.1%
KennesawLouisianaLouisiana Tech
6.2%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisiana TechTroy
6.2%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisiana TechSouth Alabama
6.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisiana TechTroy
6.0%
<0.1%
KennesawLouisianaSouthern Miss
5.2%
<0.1%
KennesawLouisianaTroy
5.1%
<0.1%
KennesawLouisianaSouth Alabama
4.2%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Arkansas StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com