Arkansas St

Arkansas StateRed Wolves

4-4 T4th (2-2) in SBC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.4%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Arkansas State's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

Arkansas State has a 1.4% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Arkansas State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Arkansas State need to do to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Arkansas State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds at 11.3%.

What is the biggest game this week for Arkansas State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds?

The biggest swing game for Arkansas State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds this week isn't even its own: a Troy win would boost them to 2.7%, while a Louisiana Tech win would leave them at 0.7%.

Arkansas StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
@MemphisMEM
L24-42
29/12
vsWest GeorgiaWGA
W52-7
39/19
@TCUTCU
L7-31
49/26
vsKennesawKENN
W17-14
510/03
@LouisianaUL
L20-23
610/08
vsSouth AlabamaUSA
L49-56
710/17
@Southern MissUSM
W23-13
810/24
vsGeorgia StGAST
W38-32
1011/07
vsULMULM
Win prob:95%
1111/14
@Coastal CarCCU
Win prob:47%
1211/21
@Louisiana TechLT
Win prob:21%
1311/28
vsTroyTROY
Win prob:60%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Arkansas StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
6-2
5.6%
11.3%
5-3
31.7%
2.4%
4-4
43.9%
0%
3-5
18.0%
0%
2-6
0.9%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Arkansas St CCG Opponents

if Arkansas St makes the CCG

JMUJames Madison
92.8%
GASOGa Southern
5.8%
CCUCoastal Car
1.4%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Arkansas StThis Week's Impact

Game
Arkansas StCCG OddsAway Wins
Arkansas StCCG OddsHome Wins
Thu, Nov 5
James MadisonJMU@Southern MissUSM
1.4%
(+0.0%)		1.4%
(+0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7
Old DominionODU@Coastal CarCCU
1.4%
(-0.0%)		1.4%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@Appalachian StAPP
1.4%
(+0.0%)		1.4%
(-0.0%)
ULMULM@Arkansas StARST
0.0%
(-1.4%)		1.5%
(+0.1%)
MarshallMRSH@Ga SouthernGASO
1.4%
(+0.0%)		1.4%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@TroyTROY
0.7%
(-0.7%)		2.7%
(+1.3%)
South AlabamaUSA@LouisianaUL
1.4%
(+0.0%)		1.4%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Arkansas St

TroyTroySouthern MissSouthern MissGeorgia StGeorgia StateGa SouthernGeorgia SouthernArkansas StArkansas StateSouth AlabamaSouth AlabamaCoastal CarCoastal Carolina

CCG: 3.7% • Scenario: 0.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Arkansas St

TroyTroyArkansas StArkansas State

CCG: 3.0% • Scenario: 31.5%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Arkansas StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Arkansas St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
11.3%
5.6%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Arkansas StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com