TennesseeVolunteers
6-2 T5th (3-2) in SEC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.5%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Tennessee's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Tennessee has a 7.5% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Tennessee's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Tennessee need to do to reach the SEC Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Tennessee's SEC Championship Game odds at 72.6%; even one more loss drops that to 1.4%.
What is the biggest game this week for Tennessee's SEC Championship Game odds?
Tennessee's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Kentucky would put its SEC Championship Game odds at 10.7%, while a loss would drop them to <0.1%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W56-9 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W45-24 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W42-9 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | L17-20 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W24-14 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W24-17 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W26-10 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | L24-27 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:70% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:51% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:32% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:88% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 10.1% | 72.6% |
| 6-3 | 36.6% | 0.5% |
| 5-4 | 38.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 13.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 7.1% (-0.4%) | 8.6% (+1.1%) | ||
| 7.5% (+0.0%) | 7.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 7.5% (+0.0%) | 7.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 6.3% (-1.1%) | 8.3% (+0.8%) | ||
| 7.7% (+0.2%) | 7.4% (-0.1%) | ||
| 0.0% (-7.5%) | 10.7% (+3.2%) | ||
| 8.4% (+0.9%) | 6.4% (-1.1%) | ||
| 7.6% (+0.1%) | 7.5% (-0.0%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Vanderbilt
GeorgiaTennessee
Florida
Auburn
LSU
Missouri
Texas A&MCCG: 15.6% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TennesseeCCG: 10.8% • Scenario: 69.8%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG ProbabilityData from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02