TennesseeVolunteers
2-0 T2nd (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.4%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Tennessee's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Tennessee has a 5.4% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Tennessee's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W56-9 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W45-24 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:99% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:21% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:70% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:92% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:41% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:52% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:91% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:26% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:43% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 2.5% | 89.7% |
| 7-2 | 11.0% | 26.4% |
| 6-3 | 24.5% | 0.3% |
| 5-4 | 30.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 21.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 8.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 5.4% (-0.0%) | 8.1% (+2.7%) | ||
| 5.4% (+0.0%) | 5.4% (-0.0%) | ||
| 5.3% (-0.1%) | 5.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.9% (+0.5%) | 5.4% (-0.0%) | ||
| 5.3% (-0.1%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.2% (-0.2%) | 5.6% (+0.2%) | ||
| 5.5% (+0.1%) | 5.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.3% (-0.1%) | 5.5% (+0.1%) | ||
| 5.4% (-0.0%) | 5.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.1% (-0.4%) | 5.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.6% (+0.2%) | 5.4% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
89.7%
2.5%
100.0%
<0.1%
98.6%
<0.1%
94.8%
0.6%
94.1%
<0.1%
93.3%
0.2%
93.0%
0.1%
92.9%
0.3%
87.9%
<0.1%
87.0%
0.3%
84.2%
0.8%Any 2 losses
26.5%
10.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.4%
<0.1%57.2%
<0.1%54.1%
<0.1%52.7%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%51.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%47.5%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%45.0%
0.2%43.5%
<0.1%42.7%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.9%
0.3%39.5%
0.1%38.7%
<0.1%38.6%
0.6%37.9%
<0.1%37.4%
<0.1%37.3%
0.3%37.2%
0.1%33.5%
<0.1%33.3%
0.3%33.0%
0.1%30.6%
0.3%27.4%
0.8%27.0%
0.4%26.6%
0.8%26.5%
<0.1%22.7%
0.9%22.5%
2.4%20.8%
1.1%20.1%
0.4%12.3%
1.2%Any 3 losses
1.3%
3.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.1%
<0.1%32.7%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%27.4%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%23.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%12.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
0.2%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.7%0.6%
0.1%0.5%
0.1%0.5%
0.3%Any 4 losses
1.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17