TennesseeVolunteers
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Tennessee's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Tennessee has a 7.2% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Tennessee's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:94% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:29% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:33% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.8% | 97.2% |
| 7-2 | 7.9% | 55.7% |
| 6-3 | 18.7% | 5.0% |
| 5-4 | 26.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 24.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 14.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
97.3%
1.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%98.6%
0.2%98.5%
<0.1%98.4%
0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%93.6%
0.3%Any 2 losses
61.1%
5.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.9%
0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%75.5%
<0.1%75.4%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%68.8%
0.1%67.6%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%65.0%
0.1%64.3%
0.2%64.0%
<0.1%63.4%
<0.1%62.2%
0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.8%
0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
0.2%61.1%
0.1%60.9%
<0.1%59.0%
0.3%55.3%
<0.1%54.5%
0.2%54.1%
0.2%53.7%
0.2%52.1%
0.3%47.7%
0.1%47.0%
0.4%46.6%
0.5%46.1%
0.2%37.9%
0.3%Any 3 losses
16.0%
13.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.4%
<0.1%57.4%
<0.1%57.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.2%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.2%
0.1%50.8%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.6%
0.1%49.3%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.7%
0.2%46.2%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
0.2%41.2%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.4%
0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.9%
0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%11.9%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.2%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
0.2%7.7%
0.2%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.2%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%6.0%
0.3%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
0.3%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.2%5.4%
0.2%5.3%
0.1%5.1%
0.5%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.3%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.2%
0.2%4.1%
0.3%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
0.7%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.4%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
0.3%2.6%
0.3%2.5%
0.4%2.5%
0.7%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
0.4%1.4%
0.4%Any 4 losses
8.5%
6.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.2%4.7%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.3%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.4%
0.3%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26