MarshallThundering Herd
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Marshall's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
Marshall has a 10.2% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Marshall's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:7% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:29% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 10/20 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:34% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:70% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:68% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.0% | 76.1% |
| 6-2 | 13.7% | 29.6% |
| 5-3 | 25.4% | 8.6% |
| 4-4 | 28.1% | 1.4% |
| 3-5 | 18.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 7.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
94.5%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
72.1%
1.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
0.2%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.1%78.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
0.3%64.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.0%
0.3%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
44.5%
6.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%93.6%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
0.1%82.2%
<0.1%80.0%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.4%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
0.3%64.1%
0.1%63.5%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
0.4%58.9%
0.1%58.3%
0.1%58.1%
0.2%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.8%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.4%
0.1%17.0%
0.1%16.7%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.6%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%13.3%
0.2%13.1%
0.3%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.2%9.5%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
0.4%6.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.6%Any 4 losses
28.6%
10.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.4%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.4%
0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%86.3%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.4%
0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.5%
<0.1%67.6%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%62.9%
0.1%62.7%
0.2%60.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.6%
0.1%55.3%
0.2%52.0%
0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.3%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.1%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.9%
0.1%18.6%
0.2%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.3%
0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%12.7%
0.1%12.5%
0.2%12.5%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.7%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
0.2%10.7%
0.4%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.3%9.9%
0.2%9.5%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
0.1%8.2%
0.1%7.6%
0.4%6.8%
0.2%6.6%
0.4%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
0.3%5.7%
0.3%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.3%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.7%3.3%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26