Marshall

MarshallThundering Herd

1-1 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.8%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Marshall's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

Marshall has a 0.8% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Marshall's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

MarshallSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
@Penn StPSU
L0-45
29/12
vsMTSUMTSU
W28-26
39/19
@Missouri StMOST
Win prob:35%
49/26
vsGardner-WebbGWEB
Win prob:90%
510/03
@James MadisonJMU
Win prob:8%
610/10
vsCoastal CarCCU
Win prob:44%
810/20
vsSouth AlabamaUSA
Win prob:39%
910/31
@Old DominionODU
Win prob:21%
1011/07
@Ga SouthernGASO
Win prob:24%
1111/14
vsAppalachian StAPP
Win prob:27%
1211/21
vsGeorgia StGAST
Win prob:42%
1311/28
@ULMULM
Win prob:70%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

MarshallRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0%
100.0%
7-1
0.1%
66.3%
6-2
1.4%
21.9%
5-3
6.7%
4.7%
4-4
18.7%
0.5%
3-5
30.1%
0%
2-6
27.6%
0%
1-7
13.0%
0%
0-8
2.4%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Marshall CCG Opponents

if Marshall makes the CCG

LTLouisiana Tech
22.5%
ULLouisiana
21.3%
USMSouthern Miss
20.0%
USASouth Alabama
15.0%
TROYTroy
11.3%
ARSTArkansas St
10.0%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

MarshallThis Week's Impact

Game
MarshallCCG OddsAway Wins
MarshallCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
Coastal CarCCU@DelawareDEL
0.8%
(+0.0%)		0.8%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
0.8%
(+0.0%)		0.8%
(+0.0%)
SE LouisianaSELA@ULMULM
0.8%
(-0.0%)		0.8%
(+0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@Appalachian StAPP
0.9%
(+0.1%)		0.8%
(-0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
0.8%
(+0.0%)		0.8%
(+0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Missouri StMOST
0.8%
(-0.0%)		0.8%
(+0.0%)
Ga SouthernGASO@Jacksonville StJXST
0.8%
(+0.0%)		0.8%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
0.8%
(+0.0%)		0.8%
(+0.0%)
OhioOHIO@South AlabamaUSA
0.8%
(-0.0%)		0.8%
(+0.0%)
TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ
0.8%
(+0.0%)		0.8%
(+0.0%)
UConnCONN@Southern MissUSM
0.8%
(-0.0%)		0.8%
(+0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
0.9%
(+0.1%)		0.8%
(+0.0%)
UABUAB@LouisianaUL
0.8%
(+0.0%)		0.8%
(+0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@San Diego StSDSU
0.8%
(+0.0%)		0.8%
(-0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

MarshallLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Marshall CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
55.7%
<0.1%
South Alabama
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
ULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Gardner-Webb
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal Car
94.4%
<0.1%
Georgia St
90.9%
<0.1%
Ga Southern
89.6%
<0.1%
Old Dominion
85.5%
<0.1%
Appalachian St
61.7%
<0.1%
James Madison
40.9%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
24.5%
0.5%
Gardner-WebbULM
100.0%
<0.1%
South AlabamaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StSouth Alabama
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbSouth Alabama
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGardner-Webb
100.0%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbGeorgia St
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth Alabama
96.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMissouri St
95.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMissouri St
94.7%
<0.1%
Old DominionULM
94.1%
<0.1%
Georgia StULM
91.7%
<0.1%
Missouri StOld Dominion
87.3%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouth Alabama
87.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth Alabama
86.4%
<0.1%
Appalachian StULM
85.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouth Alabama
85.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernULM
84.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGardner-Webb
83.3%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbOld Dominion
81.3%
<0.1%
Georgia StMissouri St
77.1%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGardner-Webb
75.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StSouth Alabama
73.2%
<0.1%
Appalachian StMissouri St
64.5%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouth Alabama
42.7%
<0.1%
James MadisonULM
41.6%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbJames Madison
40.9%
<0.1%
James MadisonMissouri St
40.3%
<0.1%
Georgia StOld Dominion
29.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa Southern
29.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia St
28.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia St
26.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernOld Dominion
24.3%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGeorgia St
21.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld Dominion
20.3%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGa Southern
18.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StOld Dominion
11.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames Madison
10.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal Car
9.5%
<0.1%
Georgia StJames Madison
9.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames Madison
8.5%
<0.1%
James MadisonOld Dominion
6.7%
<0.1%
Appalachian StJames Madison
1.8%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
17.7%
1.6%
Coastal CarGardner-WebbSouth Alabama
100.0%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbMissouri StSouth Alabama
100.0%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbGeorgia StSouth Alabama
100.0%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbSouth AlabamaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGardner-WebbULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbMissouri StOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbGeorgia StULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StSouth AlabamaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGardner-WebbULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbGeorgia StMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGardner-WebbULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbMissouri StULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGardner-WebbSouth Alabama
93.3%
<0.1%
Georgia StMissouri StSouth Alabama
93.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMissouri StSouth Alabama
92.9%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouth AlabamaULM
92.5%
<0.1%
Georgia StMissouri StULM
92.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMissouri StULM
92.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGardner-WebbMissouri St
90.9%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth AlabamaULM
90.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMissouri StSouth Alabama
88.8%
<0.1%
Missouri StOld DominionULM
88.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StOld DominionSouth Alabama
86.5%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMissouri StULM
86.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouth AlabamaULM
83.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernGardner-Webb
83.3%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGardner-WebbMissouri St
83.3%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbOld DominionSouth Alabama
80.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StSouth AlabamaULM
78.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGardner-WebbMissouri St
77.8%
<0.1%
Appalachian StMissouri StSouth Alabama
71.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGardner-WebbGeorgia St
66.7%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbOld DominionULM
66.7%
<0.1%
Appalachian StMissouri StULM
63.9%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGardner-WebbSouth Alabama
63.6%
<0.1%
James MadisonMissouri StULM
51.8%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbJames MadisonULM
50.0%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbJames MadisonSouth Alabama
46.7%
<0.1%
James MadisonMissouri StSouth Alabama
45.8%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbJames MadisonMissouri St
43.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernULM
42.2%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouth AlabamaULM
42.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionULM
40.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGardner-WebbOld Dominion
40.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StMissouri St
34.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StSouth Alabama
34.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia StMissouri St
34.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernMissouri St
32.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia StULM
32.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMissouri StOld Dominion
30.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionSouth Alabama
29.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StOld DominionSouth Alabama
28.7%
<0.1%
Georgia StMissouri StOld Dominion
28.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernOld DominionSouth Alabama
28.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMissouri StOld Dominion
25.7%
<0.1%
Georgia StOld DominionULM
25.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia StSouth Alabama
25.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGardner-WebbGeorgia St
25.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StULM
25.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernOld DominionULM
24.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernSouth Alabama
23.2%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal CarULM
22.7%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal CarGardner-Webb
20.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGa SouthernULM
19.4%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbGeorgia StJames Madison
18.5%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal CarMissouri St
16.8%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbGeorgia StOld Dominion
16.7%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGeorgia StSouth Alabama
16.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGardner-WebbOld Dominion
15.8%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGa SouthernMissouri St
15.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGa SouthernSouth Alabama
14.4%
<0.1%
Appalachian StOld DominionSouth Alabama
14.1%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGa SouthernGardner-Webb
13.6%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGeorgia StMissouri St
13.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal CarSouth Alabama
12.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonULM
12.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonMissouri St
11.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGeorgia StULM
10.5%
<0.1%
Appalachian StMissouri StOld Dominion
10.5%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGardner-WebbOld Dominion
10.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonMissouri St
8.4%
0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonSouth Alabama
8.3%
0.1%
Georgia StJames MadisonMissouri St
7.9%
<0.1%
James MadisonOld DominionSouth Alabama
7.9%
0.1%
Georgia StJames MadisonSouth Alabama
7.8%
<0.1%
Appalachian StOld DominionULM
7.2%
<0.1%
Georgia StJames MadisonULM
6.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonSouth Alabama
6.8%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonULM
6.6%
<0.1%
James MadisonMissouri StOld Dominion
6.4%
0.1%
Ga SouthernGardner-WebbJames Madison
5.2%
<0.1%
James MadisonOld DominionULM
5.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StJames MadisonULM
4.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGardner-WebbJames Madison
3.7%
<0.1%
Appalachian StJames MadisonMissouri St
3.5%
0.1%
Appalachian StJames MadisonSouth Alabama
2.6%
<0.1%
Gardner-WebbJames MadisonOld Dominion
2.3%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGardner-WebbJames Madison
1.6%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

MarshallCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com