KansasJayhawks
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Kansas's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Kansas has a 3.2% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Kansas's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/04 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/11 | Win prob:34% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:45% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:31% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:39% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:47% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:57% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:32% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.5% | 97.3% |
| 7-2 | 2.7% | 64.1% |
| 6-3 | 9.2% | 10.1% |
| 5-4 | 19.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 26.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 23.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 13.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 3.2% (+0.0%) | 3.2% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
96.4%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
74.5%
1.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
32.3%
3.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.6%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.6%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.7%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%51.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
13.4%
5.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.1%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26