SMUMustangs
0-0 T1st (0-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
28.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is SMU's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
SMU has a 28.6% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. SMU's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/07 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:92% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:83% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:77% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 11/06 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:73% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:16% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 11.5% | 96.0% |
| 7-2 | 24.3% | 57.1% |
| 6-3 | 28.2% | 4.7% |
| 5-4 | 20.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 9.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 28.2% (-0.4%) | 28.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 30.0% (+1.5%) | 28.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 28.7% (+0.1%) | 28.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 28.8% (+0.2%) | 28.4% (-0.2%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
98.4%
3.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
1.7%99.1%
0.1%98.4%
0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.5%
0.1%96.9%
0.3%96.7%
<0.1%96.5%
0.2%95.2%
0.2%94.7%
0.3%Any 2 losses
85.9%
11.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.5%98.2%
0.7%97.2%
<0.1%97.1%
0.5%97.1%
0.3%96.8%
<0.1%96.5%
1.0%96.0%
1.8%95.6%
0.6%95.4%
0.9%94.1%
<0.1%93.3%
1.8%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.6%
0.1%69.4%
<0.1%68.5%
0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.2%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.2%
0.1%62.2%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.6%
0.1%57.7%
0.1%57.6%
<0.1%57.6%
0.1%56.4%
0.2%55.3%
<0.1%54.9%
0.1%54.4%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%53.6%
0.2%52.0%
0.2%50.0%
0.2%48.7%
0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.4%
0.3%Any 3 losses
52.5%
22.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%96.9%
0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.2%
0.2%95.0%
0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.8%
0.1%94.6%
0.2%94.1%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.0%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
0.2%73.9%
0.2%72.9%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.2%
0.1%68.6%
0.2%68.4%
0.1%68.2%
0.2%67.7%
0.3%67.2%
0.5%67.0%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.6%
0.7%65.9%
0.1%65.4%
0.5%65.0%
<0.1%64.8%
0.3%64.7%
<0.1%64.2%
0.3%61.5%
<0.1%61.3%
0.4%60.8%
0.4%60.5%
0.3%60.3%
0.2%60.1%
0.4%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
0.7%59.0%
0.6%58.9%
0.3%58.7%
0.3%57.9%
0.7%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.4%
0.4%56.3%
<0.1%55.2%
1.0%54.5%
<0.1%54.0%
1.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.6%
0.3%53.4%
0.6%53.2%
0.7%52.9%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%52.6%
0.6%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.9%
1.0%49.0%
1.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.7%
2.0%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
12.1%
23.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.6%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.4%
<0.1%61.2%
<0.1%61.2%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%59.2%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.6%
0.1%51.7%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.1%49.3%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%47.6%
0.1%47.5%
<0.1%47.3%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
0.2%42.8%
0.2%42.4%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.4%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.0%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.5%
0.1%8.4%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.1%
0.1%7.8%
0.2%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.2%7.6%
0.2%7.3%
0.3%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.9%
0.2%6.6%
0.1%6.4%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.4%6.0%
<0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.3%
0.2%5.3%
0.2%5.3%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%5.1%
0.4%5.0%
0.3%5.0%
0.3%5.0%
0.4%4.8%
0.3%4.8%
0.3%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
0.6%4.5%
0.3%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
0.2%4.3%
0.2%4.3%
0.4%4.3%
0.2%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
0.4%4.0%
0.6%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
0.3%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
0.3%3.5%
0.4%3.2%
0.8%3.2%
0.2%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
0.4%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.6%2.9%
0.4%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.4%2.9%
0.3%2.7%
1.1%2.6%
0.8%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
0.6%1.9%
1.1%1.9%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.0%
0.4%1.0%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2026-08-26