SMUMustangs

6-2 T3rd (4-2) in ACC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

12.4%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is SMU's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

SMU has a 12.4% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. SMU's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does SMU need to do to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts SMU's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds at 58.0%; even one more loss drops that to 50.5%.

What is the biggest game this week for SMU's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds?

SMU's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Virginia Tech would put its Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds at 17.3%, while a loss would drop them to <0.1%.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
1	9/07	@Florida StateFSU	W27-24
2	9/12	vsUC DavisUCD	W56-10
3	9/19	@LouisvilleLOU	L31-41
4	9/26	vsMissouri StateMOST	W34-24
5	10/03	vsBoston CollegeBC	W25-16
7	10/17	vsVirginiaUVA	W23-13
8	10/24	vsCaliforniaCAL	W59-20
9	10/31	@SyracuseSYR	L27-30
10	11/06	vsVirginia TechVT	Win prob:72%
11	11/14	vsWake ForestWAKE	Win prob:36%
12	11/21	@Notre DameND	Win prob:6%
13	11/28	@StanfordSTAN	Win prob:93%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-2	23.8%	52.3%
6-3	54.4%	0.0%
5-4	20.6%	0%
4-5	1.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

MiamiMIA

99.9%

Wake ForestWAKE

<0.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6
	Virginia TechVT@SMUSMU	0.0% (-12.4%)	17.3% (+4.9%)
Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7
	ClemsonCLEM@SyracuseSYR	11.3% (-1.2%)	14.0% (+1.6%)
	Florida StateFSU@Boston CollegeBC	12.4% (-0.0%)	12.5% (+0.1%)
	North CarolinaUNC@UConnCONN	12.4% (+0.0%)	12.4% (-0.0%)
	DukeDUKE@NC StateNCSU	12.4% (-0.1%)	12.6% (+0.2%)
	MerrimackMRMK@Wake ForestWAKE	13.0% (+0.5%)	12.4% (-0.1%)
	LouisvilleLOU@Georgia TechGT	11.6% (-0.9%)	20.6% (+8.2%)
	MiamiMIA@Notre DameND	12.4% (-0.0%)	12.5% (+0.0%)