SMU

SMUMustangs

2-0 T1st (1-0) in ACC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

43.4%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is SMU's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

SMU has a 43.4% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. SMU's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

SMUSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/07
@Florida StFSU
W27-24
29/12
vsUC DavisUCD
W56-10
39/19
@LouisvilleLOU
Win prob:48%
49/26
vsMissouri StMOST
Win prob:99%
510/03
vsBoston CollegeBC
Win prob:95%
710/17
vsVirginiaUVA
Win prob:62%
810/24
vsCaliforniaCAL
Win prob:93%
910/31
@SyracuseSYR
Win prob:80%
1011/06
vsVirginia TechVT
Win prob:69%
1111/14
vsWake ForestWAKE
Win prob:85%
1211/21
@Notre DameND
Win prob:8%
1311/28
@StanfordSTAN
Win prob:91%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

SMURecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
11.3%
100.0%
8-1
31.6%
78.9%
7-2
33.5%
21.2%
6-3
17.6%
0.5%
5-4
5.1%
0%
4-5
0.8%
0%
3-6
0.1%
0%
2-7
0%
0%
1-8
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible SMU CCG Opponents

if SMU makes the CCG

MIAMiami FL
87.7%
LOULouisville
4.2%
UVAVirginia
4.1%
PITTPittsburgh
2.0%
VTVirginia Tech
1.2%
DUKEDuke
0.3%
CLEMClemson
0.1%
UNCNorth Carolina
<0.1%
WAKEWake Forest
<0.1%
NCSUNC State
<0.1%
FSUFlorida St
<0.1%
GTGeorgia Tech
<0.1%
CALCalifornia
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

SMUThis Week's Impact

Game
SMUCCG OddsAway Wins
SMUCCG OddsHome Wins
Thu, Sep 17
SyracuseSYR@PittsburghPITT
46.9%
(+3.5%)		42.9%
(-0.6%)
Fri, Sep 18
Miami FLMIA@Wake ForestWAKE
43.0%
(-0.5%)		51.9%
(+8.4%)
Sat, Sep 19
MercerMER@Georgia TechGT
43.4%
(-0.1%)		43.5%
(+0.0%)
North CarolinaUNC@ClemsonCLEM
43.5%
(+0.1%)		43.4%
(-0.1%)
NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN
43.3%
(-0.1%)		43.5%
(+0.1%)
MaineME@Boston CollegeBC
43.5%
(+0.1%)		43.4%
(-0.0%)
Florida StFSU@AlabamaALA
43.5%
(+0.0%)		43.4%
(+0.0%)
SMUSMU@LouisvilleLOU
64.5%
(+21.0%)		24.2%
(-19.2%)
WagnerWAG@CaliforniaCAL
43.2%
(-0.2%)		43.5%
(+0.0%)
StanfordSTAN@DukeDUKE
44.5%
(+1.1%)		43.3%
(-0.1%)
Virginia TechVT@MarylandMD
43.4%
(-0.0%)		43.4%
(+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA
43.5%
(+0.1%)		43.4%
(-0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

SMULoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
SMU CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.9%
Any 1 loss
95.8%
12.9%
Missouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre Dame
100.0%
10.3%
California
95.1%
<0.1%
Syracuse
94.5%
0.2%
Wake Forest
91.6%
0.2%
Boston College
90.8%
<0.1%
Stanford
90.4%
<0.1%
Virginia Tech
83.2%
0.4%
Louisville
73.0%
1.0%
Virginia
72.7%
0.5%
Any 2 losses
74.0%
31.6%
Missouri StNotre Dame
100.0%
0.1%
Missouri StWake Forest
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StStanford
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StSyracuse
94.6%
<0.1%
CaliforniaNotre Dame
94.1%
0.8%
Notre DameSyracuse
93.8%
2.5%
Missouri StVirginia Tech
91.9%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNotre Dame
91.7%
0.5%
Notre DameStanford
91.5%
1.0%
Notre DameWake Forest
90.3%
1.9%
CaliforniaMissouri St
87.5%
<0.1%
Notre DameVirginia Tech
83.7%
4.5%
Missouri StVirginia
77.8%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre Dame
73.1%
11.2%
LouisvilleMissouri St
72.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameVirginia
71.5%
6.3%
StanfordSyracuse
62.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSyracuse
59.4%
<0.1%
SyracuseWake Forest
57.9%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeStanford
54.8%
<0.1%
CaliforniaSyracuse
53.9%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeWake Forest
53.8%
<0.1%
StanfordWake Forest
53.4%
<0.1%
CaliforniaStanford
50.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaWake Forest
44.2%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCalifornia
41.9%
<0.1%
SyracuseVirginia Tech
32.4%
0.1%
CaliforniaVirginia Tech
31.9%
<0.1%
StanfordVirginia Tech
31.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeVirginia Tech
30.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeVirginia
30.1%
<0.1%
StanfordVirginia
28.7%
<0.1%
Virginia TechWake Forest
28.1%
<0.1%
CaliforniaVirginia
27.9%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisville
27.3%
<0.1%
LouisvilleStanford
26.7%
0.1%
CaliforniaLouisville
26.7%
<0.1%
VirginiaWake Forest
24.8%
0.1%
LouisvilleSyracuse
23.6%
0.3%
LouisvilleWake Forest
23.5%
0.2%
SyracuseVirginia
22.6%
0.1%
LouisvilleVirginia Tech
15.4%
0.4%
VirginiaVirginia Tech
12.7%
0.2%
LouisvilleVirginia
9.8%
0.6%
Any 3 losses
21.6%
31.1%
Missouri StStanfordSyracuse
100.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaMissouri StVirginia Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCaliforniaMissouri St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMissouri StSyracuse
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMissouri StNotre Dame
98.3%
<0.1%
CaliforniaMissouri StNotre Dame
95.8%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameSyracuse
95.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameStanford
92.5%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameWake Forest
90.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameVirginia Tech
87.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StStanfordWake Forest
75.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMissouri StNotre Dame
72.8%
0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameVirginia
71.9%
<0.1%
Notre DameStanfordSyracuse
61.6%
0.3%
Boston CollegeNotre DameStanford
61.6%
<0.1%
CaliforniaNotre DameStanford
59.5%
<0.1%
Notre DameStanfordWake Forest
58.7%
0.2%
Boston CollegeNotre DameWake Forest
58.6%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuseWake Forest
55.9%
0.5%
Boston CollegeNotre DameSyracuse
55.5%
0.1%
CaliforniaNotre DameSyracuse
55.1%
0.2%
CaliforniaNotre DameWake Forest
53.4%
0.1%
Boston CollegeCaliforniaNotre Dame
53.2%
<0.1%
Missouri StStanfordVirginia Tech
50.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleMissouri St
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMissouri StStanford
42.9%
<0.1%
Missouri StVirginiaWake Forest
42.9%
<0.1%
Missouri StSyracuseWake Forest
42.9%
<0.1%
Missouri StVirginia TechWake Forest
40.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StSyracuseVirginia
36.8%
<0.1%
Missouri StSyracuseVirginia Tech
36.4%
<0.1%
CaliforniaLouisvilleMissouri St
33.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuseVirginia Tech
32.7%
1.1%
Notre DameStanfordVirginia Tech
32.0%
0.4%
CaliforniaNotre DameVirginia Tech
31.9%
0.3%
Notre DameVirginia TechWake Forest
31.6%
0.8%
Boston CollegeNotre DameVirginia Tech
31.0%
0.2%
LouisvilleMissouri StWake Forest
30.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNotre DameVirginia
29.4%
0.3%
Notre DameStanfordVirginia
29.1%
0.6%
CaliforniaMissouri StVirginia
28.6%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameStanford
27.0%
1.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleNotre Dame
26.1%
0.5%
CaliforniaLouisvilleNotre Dame
25.2%
0.8%
CaliforniaNotre DameVirginia
25.0%
0.5%
LouisvilleMissouri StSyracuse
25.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuseVirginia
24.1%
1.6%
LouisvilleNotre DameSyracuse
24.1%
2.8%
Notre DameVirginiaWake Forest
23.4%
1.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameWake Forest
21.8%
2.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameVirginia Tech
15.2%
5.0%
Missouri StStanfordVirginia
14.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameVirginiaVirginia Tech
12.7%
2.8%
LouisvilleMissouri StVirginia
12.1%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMissouri StVirginia Tech
10.9%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameVirginia
10.3%
6.8%
Boston CollegeStanfordVirginia
9.1%
<0.1%
CaliforniaStanfordWake Forest
9.1%
<0.1%
CaliforniaSyracuseWake Forest
8.6%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCaliforniaVirginia Tech
8.3%
<0.1%
Missouri StVirginiaVirginia Tech
6.9%
<0.1%
CaliforniaStanfordSyracuse
5.3%
<0.1%
StanfordSyracuseWake Forest
5.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleWake Forest
4.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaStanfordVirginia Tech
3.9%
<0.1%
LouisvilleStanfordWake Forest
3.4%
<0.1%
StanfordVirginiaWake Forest
3.2%
<0.1%
CaliforniaStanfordVirginia
2.7%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeVirginiaWake Forest
2.4%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleStanford
2.2%
<0.1%
CaliforniaVirginia TechWake Forest
2.1%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSyracuseVirginia Tech
1.9%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleSyracuse
1.7%
<0.1%
StanfordVirginiaVirginia Tech
1.5%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSyracuseWake Forest
1.3%
<0.1%
CaliforniaLouisvilleSyracuse
1.3%
<0.1%
SyracuseVirginia TechWake Forest
1.1%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleVirginia
1.1%
<0.1%
CaliforniaLouisvilleWake Forest
0.9%
<0.1%
LouisvilleStanfordSyracuse
0.8%
<0.1%
StanfordSyracuseVirginia
0.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleStanfordVirginia
0.7%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
2.0%
5.9%
Boston CollegeMissouri StNotre DameWake Forest
77.8%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameSyracuseWake Forest
62.5%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameStanfordSyracuse
60.6%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCaliforniaMissouri StNotre Dame
60.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaMissouri StNotre DameStanford
50.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaMissouri StNotre DameWake Forest
47.1%
<0.1%
CaliforniaMissouri StNotre DameSyracuse
43.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMissouri StNotre DameSyracuse
42.9%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMissouri StNotre DameStanford
40.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleMissouri StNotre Dame
38.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameStanfordVirginia
36.5%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameStanfordVirginia Tech
34.9%
<0.1%
CaliforniaMissouri StNotre DameVirginia
34.2%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMissouri StNotre DameVirginia Tech
33.3%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameSyracuseVirginia Tech
32.8%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameVirginia TechWake Forest
31.1%
<0.1%
CaliforniaLouisvilleMissouri StNotre Dame
30.1%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMissouri StNotre DameVirginia
29.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaMissouri StNotre DameVirginia Tech
28.1%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMissouri StNotre DameStanford
26.2%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMissouri StNotre DameSyracuse
24.9%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameVirginiaWake Forest
24.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMissouri StNotre DameWake Forest
24.2%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameSyracuseVirginia
19.0%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameStanfordWake Forest
15.4%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMissouri StNotre DameVirginia Tech
15.2%
<0.1%
Missouri StNotre DameVirginiaVirginia Tech
9.9%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMissouri StNotre DameVirginia
9.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNotre DameStanfordSyracuse
9.4%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCaliforniaNotre DameWake Forest
7.7%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCaliforniaNotre DameSyracuse
7.2%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNotre DameSyracuseWake Forest
7.2%
<0.1%
CaliforniaNotre DameStanfordSyracuse
6.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCaliforniaNotre DameStanford
5.9%
<0.1%
Notre DameStanfordSyracuseWake Forest
4.9%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNotre DameStanfordWake Forest
3.7%
<0.1%
CaliforniaNotre DameStanfordWake Forest
3.6%
<0.1%
CaliforniaNotre DameSyracuseWake Forest
3.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleNotre DameStanford
3.2%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNotre DameVirginiaWake Forest
3.1%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNotre DameStanfordVirginia
3.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaLouisvilleNotre DameStanford
1.8%
<0.1%
Notre DameStanfordSyracuseVirginia Tech
1.7%
0.1%
Boston CollegeCaliforniaNotre DameVirginia
1.7%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNotre DameStanfordVirginia Tech
1.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameStanfordWake Forest
1.6%
0.2%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleNotre DameSyracuse
1.5%
0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameStanfordSyracuse
1.5%
0.3%
Notre DameStanfordVirginia TechWake Forest
1.4%
<0.1%
CaliforniaNotre DameVirginia TechWake Forest
1.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameStanfordSyracuseVirginia
1.1%
0.1%
CaliforniaNotre DameSyracuseVirginia Tech
1.1%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameSyracuseWake Forest
1.1%
0.5%
CaliforniaNotre DameStanfordVirginia Tech
1.1%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuseVirginia TechWake Forest
1.1%
0.2%
Boston CollegeCaliforniaLouisvilleNotre Dame
1.0%
<0.1%
CaliforniaLouisvilleNotre DameSyracuse
1.0%
0.2%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleNotre DameWake Forest
1.0%
0.1%
Notre DameStanfordVirginiaWake Forest
0.9%
0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameStanfordVirginia Tech
0.9%
0.5%
Boston CollegeNotre DameVirginia TechWake Forest
0.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNotre DameSyracuseVirginia
0.8%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuseVirginiaWake Forest
0.7%
0.3%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleNotre DameVirginia Tech
0.7%
0.2%
CaliforniaLouisvilleNotre DameWake Forest
0.6%
0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameStanfordVirginia
0.6%
0.7%
Boston CollegeNotre DameSyracuseVirginia Tech
0.6%
<0.1%
CaliforniaNotre DameSyracuseVirginia
0.5%
0.1%
Notre DameStanfordVirginiaVirginia Tech
0.5%
0.3%
CaliforniaLouisvilleNotre DameVirginia Tech
0.5%
0.4%
CaliforniaNotre DameVirginiaVirginia Tech
0.5%
0.2%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

SMUCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com