Texas A&M

Texas A&MAggies

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in SEC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

16.4%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Texas A&M's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?

Texas A&M has a 16.4% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Texas A&M's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Texas A&MSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsMissouri StMOST
W50-0
29/12
vsArizona StASU
W48-20
39/19
vsKentuckyUK
Win prob:96%
49/26
@LSULSU
Win prob:43%
510/03
vsArkansasARK
Win prob:99%
610/10
@MissouriMIZ
Win prob:75%
710/17
vsThe CitadelCIT
Win prob:90%
810/24
@AlabamaALA
Win prob:41%
1011/07
@South CarolinaSC
Win prob:69%
1111/14
vsTennesseeTENN
Win prob:74%
1211/21
@OklahomaOU
Win prob:59%
1311/27
vsTexasTEX
Win prob:35%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas A&MRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
1.4%
100.0%
8-1
8.8%
90.6%
7-2
22.8%
30.3%
6-3
30.8%
0.7%
5-4
23.4%
0%
4-5
10.2%
0%
3-6
2.4%
0%
2-7
0.3%
0%
1-8
0.0%
0%
0-9
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Texas A&M CCG Opponents

if Texas A&M makes the CCG

TEXTexas
40.8%
UGAGeorgia
32.8%
ALAAlabama
12.8%
LSULSU
7.5%
TENNTennessee
2.0%
OUOklahoma
1.4%
FLAFlorida
1.0%
MISSMississippi
0.6%
SCSouth Carolina
0.5%
AUBAuburn
0.3%
MIZMissouri
0.1%
MSSTMississippi St
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas A&MThis Week's Impact

Game
Texas A&MCCG OddsAway Wins
Texas A&MCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
GeorgiaUGA@ArkansasARK
16.3%
(-0.1%)		21.1%
(+4.7%)
NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN
16.4%
(+0.0%)		16.4%
(+0.0%)
Florida StFSU@AlabamaALA
16.8%
(+0.4%)		16.4%
(-0.0%)
KentuckyUK@Texas A&MTA&M
6.1%
(-10.3%)		16.8%
(+0.4%)
Mississippi StMSST@South CarolinaSC
15.9%
(-0.5%)		16.6%
(+0.3%)
FloridaFLA@AuburnAUB
16.2%
(-0.2%)		16.6%
(+0.2%)
TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ
16.6%
(+0.3%)		16.4%
(-0.0%)
LSULSU@MississippiMISS
16.2%
(-0.3%)		16.9%
(+0.5%)
New MexicoUNM@OklahomaOU
16.5%
(+0.1%)		16.4%
(-0.0%)
KennesawKENN@TennesseeTENN
17.1%
(+0.7%)		16.4%
(-0.0%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TexasTEX
16.2%
(-0.2%)		16.4%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas A&MLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Texas A&M CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.2%
Any 1 loss
90.8%
8.0%
The Citadel
100.0%
0.1%
Kentucky
99.8%
<0.1%
Tennessee
97.3%
0.4%
South Carolina
96.3%
0.5%
LSU
94.5%
1.6%
Alabama
91.3%
1.8%
Missouri
89.1%
0.4%
Oklahoma
88.7%
0.9%
Arkansas
87.5%
<0.1%
Texas
85.5%
2.2%
Any 2 losses
32.7%
21.5%
KentuckyThe Citadel
100.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasKentucky
100.0%
<0.1%
TennesseeThe Citadel
96.5%
<0.1%
LSUThe Citadel
94.4%
0.2%
South CarolinaThe Citadel
94.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaThe Citadel
90.9%
0.2%
MissouriThe Citadel
89.9%
<0.1%
OklahomaThe Citadel
88.3%
0.1%
TexasThe Citadel
86.2%
0.3%
ArkansasThe Citadel
66.7%
<0.1%
KentuckySouth Carolina
63.3%
<0.1%
KentuckyMissouri
61.8%
<0.1%
KentuckyOklahoma
57.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasTennessee
57.1%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth Carolina
56.7%
0.2%
ArkansasMissouri
54.5%
<0.1%
ArkansasOklahoma
53.9%
<0.1%
KentuckyTennessee
53.4%
<0.1%
MissouriOklahoma
51.1%
0.3%
MissouriTennessee
50.9%
0.1%
KentuckyLSU
50.9%
<0.1%
South CarolinaTennessee
49.9%
0.2%
OklahomaTennessee
48.6%
0.3%
OklahomaSouth Carolina
46.9%
0.4%
AlabamaKentucky
46.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasLSU
43.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasSouth Carolina
42.7%
<0.1%
LSUSouth Carolina
42.7%
0.7%
LSUMissouri
42.3%
0.5%
KentuckyTexas
40.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaSouth Carolina
37.9%
0.8%
LSUOklahoma
37.6%
1.1%
AlabamaMissouri
37.1%
0.6%
AlabamaArkansas
36.1%
<0.1%
LSUTennessee
36.0%
0.6%
MissouriTexas
35.3%
0.7%
AlabamaOklahoma
33.2%
1.2%
ArkansasTexas
32.1%
<0.1%
South CarolinaTexas
30.9%
1.0%
AlabamaTennessee
30.6%
0.6%
OklahomaTexas
29.8%
1.6%
TennesseeTexas
29.7%
0.8%
AlabamaLSU
24.4%
2.3%
LSUTexas
23.2%
2.9%
AlabamaTexas
16.2%
3.2%
Any 3 losses
4.5%
18.3%
ArkansasKentuckyThe Citadel
100.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyTennesseeThe Citadel
87.5%
<0.1%
ArkansasMissouriThe Citadel
85.7%
<0.1%
KentuckySouth CarolinaThe Citadel
67.9%
<0.1%
KentuckyMissouriThe Citadel
65.0%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth CarolinaThe Citadel
54.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasKentuckyMissouri
50.0%
<0.1%
MissouriOklahomaThe Citadel
48.9%
<0.1%
South CarolinaTennesseeThe Citadel
47.8%
<0.1%
KentuckyOklahomaThe Citadel
47.6%
<0.1%
MissouriTennesseeThe Citadel
46.6%
<0.1%
OklahomaSouth CarolinaThe Citadel
43.6%
<0.1%
OklahomaTennesseeThe Citadel
43.6%
<0.1%
LSUSouth CarolinaThe Citadel
43.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasSouth CarolinaThe Citadel
42.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasLSUThe Citadel
41.2%
<0.1%
KentuckyLSUThe Citadel
40.8%
<0.1%
LSUMissouriThe Citadel
40.4%
<0.1%
LSUOklahomaThe Citadel
39.0%
0.1%
KentuckyTexasThe Citadel
38.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaKentuckyThe Citadel
37.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaMissouriThe Citadel
36.8%
<0.1%
ArkansasTexasThe Citadel
36.4%
<0.1%
LSUTennesseeThe Citadel
35.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaSouth CarolinaThe Citadel
35.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasOklahomaThe Citadel
33.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaOklahomaThe Citadel
33.2%
0.1%
South CarolinaTexasThe Citadel
32.8%
0.1%
MissouriTexasThe Citadel
31.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaTennesseeThe Citadel
30.6%
<0.1%
OklahomaTexasThe Citadel
29.7%
0.2%
TennesseeTexasThe Citadel
28.2%
<0.1%
AlabamaLSUThe Citadel
25.3%
0.3%
ArkansasTennesseeThe Citadel
25.0%
<0.1%
LSUTexasThe Citadel
24.2%
0.3%
AlabamaArkansasThe Citadel
21.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaTexasThe Citadel
17.0%
0.4%
ArkansasMissouriTennessee
5.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasLSUSouth Carolina
5.8%
<0.1%
ArkansasMissouriTexas
5.1%
<0.1%
ArkansasLSUOklahoma
3.3%
<0.1%
KentuckyOklahomaTennessee
2.9%
<0.1%
KentuckyMissouriOklahoma
2.7%
<0.1%
KentuckyOklahomaSouth Carolina
2.5%
<0.1%
ArkansasTennesseeTexas
2.5%
<0.1%
KentuckyMissouriTexas
2.4%
<0.1%
MissouriOklahomaTennessee
2.4%
0.1%
ArkansasLSUMissouri
2.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyMissouriSouth Carolina
2.0%
<0.1%
MissouriOklahomaSouth Carolina
2.0%
0.1%
KentuckyLSUSouth Carolina
2.0%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth CarolinaTennessee
2.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasOklahoma
1.9%
<0.1%
KentuckyOklahomaTexas
1.9%
<0.1%
KentuckyLSUOklahoma
1.9%
<0.1%
KentuckyTennesseeTexas
1.8%
<0.1%
KentuckyLSUMissouri
1.7%
<0.1%
KentuckyMissouriTennessee
1.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaKentuckyMissouri
1.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasMissouri
1.5%
<0.1%
KentuckySouth CarolinaTennessee
1.5%
<0.1%
MissouriOklahomaTexas
1.4%
0.5%
AlabamaMissouriSouth Carolina
1.4%
0.3%
LSUMissouriSouth Carolina
1.3%
0.2%
AlabamaArkansasSouth Carolina
1.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaMissouriOklahoma
1.3%
0.4%
MissouriTennesseeTexas
1.2%
0.3%
OklahomaTennesseeTexas
1.1%
0.5%
LSUMissouriOklahoma
1.0%
0.4%
ArkansasOklahomaTexas
1.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyLSUTexas
1.0%
0.1%
OklahomaSouth CarolinaTexas
1.0%
0.7%
AlabamaKentuckySouth Carolina
1.0%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth CarolinaTexas
1.0%
0.3%
LSUMissouriTexas
1.0%
1.0%
OklahomaSouth CarolinaTennessee
1.0%
0.1%
AlabamaKentuckyTennessee
0.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasSouth CarolinaTexas
0.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaMissouriTennessee
0.9%
0.2%
South CarolinaTennesseeTexas
0.9%
0.4%
LSUOklahomaSouth Carolina
0.9%
0.5%
AlabamaOklahomaSouth Carolina
0.9%
0.5%
AlabamaKentuckyLSU
0.8%
<0.1%
KentuckySouth CarolinaTexas
0.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaKentuckyOklahoma
0.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasLSU
0.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaOklahomaTennessee
0.7%
0.4%
AlabamaMissouriTexas
0.7%
1.1%
LSUTennesseeTexas
0.7%
1.0%
LSUMissouriTennessee
0.7%
0.2%
LSUOklahomaTexas
0.6%
2.0%
ArkansasLSUTexas
0.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaLSUMissouri
0.6%
0.7%
AlabamaLSUSouth Carolina
0.6%
1.1%
LSUOklahomaTennessee
0.6%
0.4%
LSUSouth CarolinaTennessee
0.6%
0.3%
LSUSouth CarolinaTexas
0.5%
1.3%
AlabamaArkansasTexas
0.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaKentuckyTexas
0.5%
0.1%
Any 4 losses
1.0%
1.4%
ArkansasLSUTennesseeThe Citadel
20.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyTennesseeTexasThe Citadel
11.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasTennesseeThe Citadel
10.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaKentuckyMissouriThe Citadel
4.8%
<0.1%
KentuckyLSUTennesseeThe Citadel
3.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaKentuckySouth CarolinaThe Citadel
3.0%
<0.1%
KentuckySouth CarolinaTexasThe Citadel
2.9%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth CarolinaTexasThe Citadel
2.5%
<0.1%
MissouriTennesseeTexasThe Citadel
1.9%
<0.1%
KentuckyLSUTexasThe Citadel
1.8%
<0.1%
South CarolinaTennesseeTexasThe Citadel
1.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaMissouriTennesseeThe Citadel
1.6%
<0.1%
KentuckyOklahomaTexasThe Citadel
1.6%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth CarolinaTennesseeThe Citadel
1.6%
<0.1%
OklahomaSouth CarolinaTennesseeThe Citadel
1.3%
<0.1%
LSUMissouriSouth CarolinaThe Citadel
1.2%
<0.1%
LSUOklahomaTennesseeThe Citadel
1.2%
<0.1%
LSUSouth CarolinaTexasThe Citadel
1.2%
0.1%
AlabamaOklahomaSouth CarolinaThe Citadel
1.2%
<0.1%
OklahomaSouth CarolinaTexasThe Citadel
1.1%
<0.1%
AlabamaMissouriOklahomaThe Citadel
1.1%
<0.1%
MissouriOklahomaTexasThe Citadel
1.1%
<0.1%
AlabamaSouth CarolinaTennesseeThe Citadel
1.0%
<0.1%
LSUMissouriOklahomaThe Citadel
0.9%
<0.1%
LSUMissouriTexasThe Citadel
0.9%
0.1%
AlabamaMissouriTexasThe Citadel
0.9%
0.1%
AlabamaLSUMissouriThe Citadel
0.7%
<0.1%
LSUOklahomaSouth CarolinaThe Citadel
0.7%
<0.1%
LSUSouth CarolinaTennesseeThe Citadel
0.7%
<0.1%
OklahomaTennesseeTexasThe Citadel
0.7%
<0.1%
LSUOklahomaTexasThe Citadel
0.7%
0.2%
LSUMissouriTennesseeThe Citadel
0.5%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas A&MCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com