Florida StateSeminoles

1-1 T5th (0-1) in ACC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.1%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Florida State's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

Florida State has a 0.1% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Florida State's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/29	vsNew Mexico StateNMSU	W34-17
1	9/07	vsSMUSMU	L24-27
3	9/19	@AlabamaALA	Win prob:7%
4	9/26	vsCentral ArkansasCARK	Win prob:90%
5	10/03	vsVirginiaUVA	Win prob:42%
6	10/09	@LouisvilleLOU	Win prob:29%
7	10/17	@MiamiMIA	Win prob:4%
9	10/31	vsClemsonCLEM	Win prob:66%
10	11/07	@Boston CollegeBC	Win prob:78%
11	11/13	@PittsburghPITT	Win prob:29%
12	11/21	vsNC StateNCSU	Win prob:74%
13	11/27	vsFloridaFLA	Win prob:31%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	0.1%	61.6%
6-2	1.7%	4.2%
5-3	10.7%	0.0%
4-4	27.8%	0%
3-5	33.8%	0%
2-6	20.0%	0%
1-7	5.4%	0%
0-8	0.6%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

MiamiMIA

90.0%

SMUSMU

10.0%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Thu, Sep 17Thursday, September 17
	SyracuseSYR@PittsburghPITT	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18
	MiamiMIA@Wake ForestWAKE	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19
	MercerMER@Georgia TechGT	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	North CarolinaUNC@ClemsonCLEM	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	MaineME@Boston CollegeBC	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	Florida StateFSU@AlabamaALA	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	SMUSMU@LouisvilleLOU	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	WagnerWAG@CaliforniaCAL	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	StanfordSTAN@DukeDUKE	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	Virginia TechVT@MarylandMD	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

58.3%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

33.3%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

64.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

6.5%

<0.1%

2.7%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

7.2%

0.5%

66.7%

<0.1%

58.5%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

9.3%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

5.2%

<0.1%

4.5%

0.3%

4.3%

<0.1%

3.2%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.8%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

1.9%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

4.2%

1.0%

72.5%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

9.2%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.0%

<0.1%

6.9%

<0.1%

6.8%

<0.1%

4.5%

0.7%

3.9%

<0.1%

3.6%

<0.1%

3.4%

<0.1%

3.1%

<0.1%

2.5%

<0.1%

2.5%

<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com