Florida St

Florida StateSeminoles

0-0 T1st (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

6.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is Florida State's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

Florida State has a 6.4% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Florida State's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Florida StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
8/29
vsNew Mexico StNMSU
Win prob:95%
9/07
vsSMUSMU
Win prob:52%
9/19
@AlabamaALA
Win prob:22%
9/26
vsCentral ArkansasCARK
Win prob:90%
10/03
vsVirginiaUVA
Win prob:59%
10/09
@LouisvilleLOU
Win prob:44%
10/17
@Miami FLMIA
Win prob:19%
10/31
vsClemsonCLEM
Win prob:46%
11/07
@Boston CollegeBC
Win prob:71%
11/13
@PittsburghPITT
Win prob:50%
11/21
vsNC StateNCSU
Win prob:68%
11/27
vsFloridaFLA
Win prob:46%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Florida StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.3%
100.0%
7-1
2.9%
94.0%
6-2
11.4%
29.3%
5-3
23.7%
0.2%
4-4
29.1%
0%
3-5
21.0%
0%
2-6
9.2%
0%
1-7
2.3%
0%
0-8
0.2%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Florida St CCG Opponents

if Florida St makes the CCG

MiamiMiami FL
67.9%
SMUSMU
10.8%
ClemsonClemson
9.9%
LouisvilleLouisville
7.2%
VirginiaVirginia
4.3%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Florida StThis Week's Impact

Game
Florida StCCG OddsAway
Florida StCCG OddsHome
NC StateNCSU@VirginiaUVA
6.7%
(+0.3%)		6.2%
(-0.1%)
New Mexico StNMSU@Florida StFSU
6.3%
(-0.1%)		6.4%
(+0.0%)
North CarolinaUNC@TCUTCU
6.5%
(+0.1%)		6.3%
(-0.1%)
HawaiiHAW@StanfordSTAN
6.5%
(+0.1%)		6.3%
(-0.1%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Florida StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Florida St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
97.0%
0.3%
Alabama
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
NC State
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston College
100.0%
<0.1%
Pittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Central Arkansas
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisville
96.5%
<0.1%
Miami FL
95.7%
<0.1%
Clemson
93.5%
<0.1%
SMU
84.2%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
67.2%
2.4%
AlabamaFlorida
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNC State
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasClemson
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFlorida
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasLouisville
100.0%
<0.1%
NC StateNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral Arkansas
100.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
New Mexico StPittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasMiami FL
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegePittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCentral Arkansas
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaVirginia
98.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston College
97.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaNC State
97.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaPittsburgh
96.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaSMU
96.6%
<0.1%
FloridaPittsburgh
96.5%
<0.1%
FloridaVirginia
96.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemson
95.2%
0.1%
AlabamaLouisville
93.9%
0.1%
FloridaLouisville
92.1%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeFlorida
91.7%
<0.1%
FloridaMiami FL
91.6%
0.1%
AlabamaMiami FL
91.2%
0.4%
ClemsonFlorida
90.0%
<0.1%
FloridaSMU
84.4%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNC State
80.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeVirginia
71.4%
<0.1%
New Mexico StSMU
66.7%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeClemson
57.1%
<0.1%
PittsburghVirginia
54.5%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMiami FL
47.7%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisville
44.4%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC State
40.0%
<0.1%
SMUVirginia
38.9%
<0.1%
ClemsonNC State
38.5%
<0.1%
NC StateVirginia
37.5%
<0.1%
Miami FLVirginia
36.4%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNC State
35.3%
<0.1%
Miami FLPittsburgh
34.8%
0.1%
LouisvilleSMU
34.6%
<0.1%
PittsburghSMU
33.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonSMU
32.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLSMU
30.3%
0.1%
NC StateSMU
28.6%
<0.1%
NC StatePittsburgh
28.6%
<0.1%
LouisvillePittsburgh
28.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeSMU
25.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FL
24.2%
0.1%
ClemsonVirginia
23.8%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FL
17.9%
0.1%
ClemsonLouisville
13.8%
<0.1%
ClemsonPittsburgh
12.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleVirginia
11.1%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
40.8%
6.3%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasNC State
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeCentral Arkansas
100.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonFloridaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeFlorida
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeLouisvilleNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaMiami FLNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCentral ArkansasNC State
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasClemsonFlorida
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasFlorida
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFloridaPittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNew Mexico StVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFloridaNC State
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaNew Mexico StVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
NC StateNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNew Mexico StPittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisvilleNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasPittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaNC StateNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasLouisvilleSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCentral ArkansasPittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisvilleNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasPittsburghVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCentral ArkansasSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasNC StateSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaNC State
97.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaVirginia
96.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaLouisville
95.9%
0.1%
AlabamaFloridaPittsburgh
95.7%
0.1%
AlabamaClemsonFlorida
94.6%
0.1%
AlabamaFloridaMiami FL
93.3%
0.5%
AlabamaFloridaSMU
91.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasMiami FL
91.2%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasSMU
90.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasClemson
90.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasLouisville
88.2%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeFloridaVirginia
87.5%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFloridaMiami FL
86.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaNew Mexico StPittsburgh
75.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeFloridaSMU
70.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasClemsonVirginia
66.7%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasMiami FLPittsburgh
61.5%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasPittsburghSMU
60.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeFloridaMiami FL
55.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaPittsburghVirginia
52.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
FloridaMiami FLNew Mexico St
50.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasSMUVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasNC StatePittsburgh
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNew Mexico StSMU
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNew Mexico StVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeNC State
46.2%
<0.1%
FloridaNC StateSMU
45.5%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeFloridaLouisville
45.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasMiami FLNC State
44.4%
<0.1%
FloridaPittsburghSMU
44.1%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegePittsburgh
43.8%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisvilleNC State
43.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaNC StatePittsburgh
42.5%
<0.1%
FloridaMiami FLPittsburgh
41.1%
0.1%
AlabamaPittsburghSMU
41.0%
<0.1%
FloridaMiami FLVirginia
40.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeMiami FL
39.9%
0.1%
FloridaNC StatePittsburgh
38.9%
<0.1%
FloridaNC StateVirginia
37.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaMiami FLPittsburgh
37.4%
0.4%
FloridaMiami FLNC State
36.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeSMU
36.8%
<0.1%
FloridaSMUVirginia
36.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaNC StateVirginia
36.4%
<0.1%
FloridaPittsburghVirginia
35.7%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisvillePittsburgh
35.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaNC StateSMU
34.2%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeClemson
34.2%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisvillePittsburgh
33.3%
0.1%
Miami FLNC StateNew Mexico St
33.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCentral ArkansasMiami FL
33.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeLouisville
32.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaSMUVirginia
30.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisvilleSMU
29.6%
0.1%
FloridaLouisvilleVirginia
29.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaMiami FLNC State
28.6%
0.2%
LouisvilleMiami FLNew Mexico St
28.6%
<0.1%
ClemsonFloridaNC State
28.6%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisvilleMiami FL
28.1%
0.1%
AlabamaMiami FLVirginia
27.7%
0.3%
Boston CollegeFloridaPittsburgh
27.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisvilleVirginia
27.1%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisvilleSMU
27.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaMiami FLSMU
26.6%
0.3%
AlabamaLouisvilleNC State
26.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonFloridaSMU
25.8%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasMiami FLSMU
25.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasClemsonPittsburgh
25.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLNew Mexico StPittsburgh
25.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLNew Mexico St
25.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisvilleMiami FL
24.7%
0.5%
FloridaMiami FLSMU
24.1%
0.1%
AlabamaClemsonNC State
24.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonVirginia
23.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonSMU
22.4%
0.1%
AlabamaClemsonPittsburgh
21.4%
0.1%
ClemsonFloridaVirginia
20.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonMiami FL
20.0%
0.4%
ClemsonFloridaMiami FL
17.9%
0.1%
ClemsonFloridaPittsburgh
17.4%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasLouisvilleMiami FL
16.7%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasClemsonLouisville
16.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonLouisville
16.5%
0.1%
Central ArkansasClemsonMiami FL
13.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonFloridaLouisville
12.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeClemsonFlorida
12.5%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSMUVirginia
3.6%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMiami FLPittsburgh
2.2%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLNC State
1.5%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FLPittsburgh
1.5%
0.1%
Miami FLPittsburghVirginia
1.2%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
28.1%
5.7%
Central ArkansasMiami FLNew Mexico StPittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNew Mexico StPittsburghVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFloridaNC StateSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonFloridaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaLouisvilleNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasFloridaVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeFloridaNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaNew Mexico StVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaNew Mexico StPittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaNC StateNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeCentral ArkansasPittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonFloridaNew Mexico StPittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasNew Mexico StVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonNC StateNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeFloridaNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCentral ArkansasNC StateVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeFloridaNew Mexico StPittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasLouisvilleNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasNC StatePittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCentral ArkansasFloridaSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaLouisvilleNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasMiami FLNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFloridaMiami FLNew Mexico St
100.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonFloridaNew Mexico StSMU
100.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasFloridaMiami FL
94.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasClemsonFlorida
92.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasFloridaLouisville
90.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasFloridaPittsburgh
88.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaMiami FLNew Mexico St
88.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeCentral ArkansasFlorida
85.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasFloridaSMU
83.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasFloridaNC State
83.3%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFloridaPittsburghVirginia
80.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeFloridaMiami FLNew Mexico St
75.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaNew Mexico StPittsburghSMU
75.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasLouisvilleNC State
66.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaNew Mexico StPittsburghVirginia
66.7%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFloridaPittsburghSMU
66.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeCentral ArkansasSMU
66.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeFloridaPittsburgh
63.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaNC StateNew Mexico StPittsburgh
60.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCentral ArkansasFloridaMiami FL
60.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaNC StatePittsburgh
58.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisvilleNC StateNew Mexico St
50.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeCentral ArkansasLouisville
50.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCentral ArkansasFloridaLouisville
50.0%
<0.1%
FloridaMiami FLNew Mexico StVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeCentral ArkansasClemsonFlorida
50.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaMiami FLNew Mexico StPittsburgh
45.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonNew Mexico StPittsburgh
44.4%
<0.1%
FloridaMiami FLNew Mexico StSMU
44.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeFloridaVirginia
44.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFloridaMiami FLNC State
42.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaNC StateSMU
41.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeMiami FLNew Mexico St
41.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeFloridaSMU
40.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeCentral ArkansasNC State
40.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeFloridaMiami FL
37.6%
0.2%
AlabamaFloridaMiami FLNC State
37.6%
0.2%
AlabamaBoston CollegeFloridaNC State
37.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaLouisvilleVirginia
37.1%
0.1%
AlabamaFloridaLouisvilleNC State
36.5%
<0.1%
ClemsonFloridaMiami FLNew Mexico St
36.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaMiami FLPittsburgh
36.1%
0.4%
AlabamaFloridaMiami FLVirginia
35.8%
0.3%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasClemsonPittsburgh
35.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasMiami FLPittsburgh
34.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeFloridaLouisville
34.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaPittsburghVirginia
34.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaNC StateVirginia
34.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaSMUVirginia
33.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeCentral ArkansasMiami FL
33.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasClemsonLouisville
33.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasClemsonVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaNew Mexico StSMUVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeNew Mexico StVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeCentral ArkansasVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasClemsonFloridaVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaLouisvilleSMU
32.8%
0.1%
AlabamaMiami FLNew Mexico StVirginia
30.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisvilleMiami FLNew Mexico St
30.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaLouisvillePittsburgh
29.4%
0.1%
AlabamaFloridaLouisvilleMiami FL
28.7%
0.6%
AlabamaLouisvilleNew Mexico StPittsburgh
28.6%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFloridaMiami FLPittsburgh
28.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasMiami FLNC State
28.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasLouisvilleSMU
28.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasMiami FLVirginia
27.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaMiami FLNC StateNew Mexico St
27.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasLouisvilleVirginia
27.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasLouisvilleMiami FL
26.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasMiami FLSMU
26.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaMiami FLSMU
26.5%
0.4%
AlabamaMiami FLNew Mexico StSMU
26.3%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFloridaMiami FLVirginia
25.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasPittsburghVirginia
25.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasNC StateVirginia
25.0%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFloridaMiami FLSMU
25.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaFloridaPittsburghSMU
24.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonFloridaPittsburgh
22.7%
0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasClemsonNC State
22.2%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasPittsburghSMU
22.2%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasFloridaLouisvilleMiami FL
21.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasClemsonSMU
21.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeClemsonFlorida
21.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasLouisvillePittsburgh
20.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonFloridaLouisville
19.1%
0.1%
AlabamaCentral ArkansasClemsonMiami FL
17.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonFloridaMiami FL
17.0%
0.5%
AlabamaClemsonLouisvilleNew Mexico St
16.7%
<0.1%
Miami FLNew Mexico StPittsburghSMU
16.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisvilleNew Mexico StSMU
16.7%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonFloridaVirginia
16.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonFloridaNC State
16.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonMiami FLNew Mexico St
15.4%
<0.1%
Central ArkansasClemsonFloridaMiami FL
15.0%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonFloridaSMU
14.3%
0.1%
ClemsonFloridaSMUVirginia
2.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisvilleNC StateVirginia
2.5%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeFloridaMiami FLVirginia
2.1%
<0.1%
AlabamaLouisvillePittsburghVirginia
1.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaClemsonLouisvillePittsburgh
0.9%
0.1%
FloridaMiami FLPittsburghSMU
0.9%
0.1%
AlabamaMiami FLNC StateVirginia
0.7%
0.1%
AlabamaBoston CollegeMiami FLPittsburgh
0.7%
0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com