IndianaHoosiers
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
40.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Indiana's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Indiana has a 40.1% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Indiana's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:97% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:96% | ||
| 9/25 | Win prob:92% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:89% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:43% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:93% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 7.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 24.9% | 88.2% |
| 7-2 | 33.4% | 32.4% |
| 6-3 | 23.1% | 1.0% |
| 5-4 | 9.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 2.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 40.4% (+0.3%) | 40.1% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
6.0%Any 1 loss
88.6%
22.0%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.7%
96.1%
0.4%
96.1%
0.5%
95.9%
0.8%
93.6%
2.0%
93.3%
2.2%
89.7%
0.5%
88.4%
3.8%
87.6%
2.7%
83.5%
8.2%Any 2 losses
39.2%
31.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.1%
0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.5%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.4%
0.2%93.2%
<0.1%92.4%
0.2%92.4%
0.1%91.1%
<0.1%90.4%
0.4%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.4%
<0.1%88.6%
0.1%88.4%
0.3%88.2%
0.3%86.8%
0.2%86.7%
<0.1%83.9%
0.9%78.2%
0.1%75.8%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%68.8%
0.3%68.1%
0.3%66.9%
0.2%65.6%
<0.1%64.4%
0.1%62.6%
0.1%59.9%
0.1%59.1%
0.2%56.2%
0.2%55.6%
0.6%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%48.5%
0.2%47.2%
0.5%44.1%
0.3%44.0%
1.0%42.9%
0.2%42.6%
0.6%42.3%
0.3%41.0%
1.3%40.9%
1.4%40.8%
0.2%40.1%
0.9%39.5%
0.3%39.5%
0.5%38.5%
0.2%33.8%
0.7%33.5%
0.9%31.4%
2.7%31.3%
2.9%26.5%
1.7%17.8%
5.1%16.0%
3.6%Any 3 losses
10.6%
18.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%50.4%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.9%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.6%
0.2%38.5%
<0.1%37.8%
0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.8%
0.3%31.6%
0.4%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%29.3%
0.2%28.8%
<0.1%28.3%
0.1%28.0%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%24.8%
0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.9%
0.1%23.0%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.8%
0.4%20.3%
0.6%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.3%
0.1%15.0%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.3%1.5%
0.3%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
0.2%1.4%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.5%1.2%
0.4%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
1.8%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.7%
0.4%0.7%
1.7%0.6%
0.9%0.6%
0.7%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
1.2%Any 4 losses
8.1%
1.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%Data from 2026-08-26