IndianaHoosiers
2-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
54.8%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Indiana's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Indiana has a 54.8% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Indiana's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W52-16 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W55-0 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:99% | |
| 4 | 9/25 | Win prob:98% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:99% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:75% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:41% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:99% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:99% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 16.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 40.1% | 83.7% |
| 7-2 | 31.1% | 16.4% |
| 6-3 | 10.7% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 54.9% (+0.1%) | 54.8% (-0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 54.8% (-0.1%) | 54.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 54.5% (-0.3%) | 54.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 54.3% (-0.5%) | 54.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 54.6% (-0.2%) | 54.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 54.7% (-0.2%) | 54.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 54.8% (-0.1%) | 58.0% (+3.1%) | ||
| 54.6% (-0.3%) | 54.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 54.9% (+0.1%) | 54.8% (-0.0%) | ||
| 54.5% (-0.4%) | 54.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 54.9% (+0.1%) | 54.8% (-0.0%) | ||
| 54.8% (-0.1%) | 54.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 54.8% (-0.1%) | 54.9% (+0.1%) | ||
| 55.1% (+0.3%) | 54.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 54.9% (+0.0%) | 54.8% (-0.0%) | ||
| 55.5% (+0.7%) | 54.7% (-0.2%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
16.0%Any 1 loss
83.7%
39.9%
100.0%
0.2%
95.9%
0.2%
94.8%
0.2%
94.7%
0.2%
94.1%
1.4%
91.3%
0.3%
90.9%
5.4%
84.2%
5.1%
82.0%
22.7%
77.7%
4.4%Any 2 losses
17.2%
31.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%86.6%
<0.1%82.8%
0.2%82.6%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%39.8%
<0.1%39.8%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%33.5%
0.1%32.9%
0.2%32.4%
0.2%32.3%
<0.1%32.0%
0.5%31.1%
0.2%28.1%
<0.1%27.7%
1.9%27.7%
0.4%26.3%
<0.1%23.6%
0.4%23.1%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.5%
<0.1%19.9%
1.7%19.2%
7.6%18.6%
<0.1%18.3%
0.4%16.9%
<0.1%14.8%
1.5%12.7%
7.2%10.4%
1.4%8.5%
6.3%Any 3 losses
10.6%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17