Sacramento StateHornets
0-0 T1st (0-0) in MAC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
17.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Sacramento State's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Sacramento State has a 17.0% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Sacramento State's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:27% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:51% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 10/30 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 11/04 | Win prob:39% | ||
| 11/11 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:27% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 6.0% | 95.8% |
| 6-2 | 17.6% | 52.6% |
| 5-3 | 27.2% | 3.6% |
| 4-4 | 26.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 15.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 23.4% (+6.5%) | 8.1% (-8.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 23.0% • Scenario: 57.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 23.0% • Scenario: 57.9%
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Data from 2026-08-26