USC

USCTrojans

3-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

13.3%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is USC's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?

USC has a 13.3% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. USC's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

USCSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
08/29
vsSan Jose StSJSU
W42-26
19/04
vsFresno StFRES
W39-0
29/12
vsLouisianaUL
W49-30
39/19
@RutgersRUTG
Win prob:97%
49/26
vsOregonORE
Win prob:63%
510/03
vsWashingtonWASH
Win prob:90%
610/10
@Penn StPSU
Win prob:48%
810/24
@WisconsinWIS
Win prob:87%
910/31
vsOhio StOSU
Win prob:21%
1111/14
@IndianaIU
Win prob:22%
1211/21
vsMarylandMD
Win prob:90%
1311/28
@UCLAUCLA
Win prob:77%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

USCRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.7%
100.0%
8-1
7.2%
97.7%
7-2
24.1%
22.9%
6-3
34.5%
0.2%
5-4
23.5%
0%
4-5
8.3%
0%
3-6
1.5%
0%
2-7
0.1%
0%
1-8
0.0%
0%
0-9
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible USC CCG Opponents

if USC makes the CCG

OSUOhio St
64.3%
IUIndiana
23.9%
PSUPenn St
5.8%
OREOregon
2.5%
NEBNebraska
1.6%
MICHMichigan
1.3%
IOWAIowa
0.5%
UCLAUCLA
0.2%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

USCThis Week's Impact

Game
USCCCG OddsAway Wins
USCCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Sep 18
Portland StatePRST@OregonORE
13.4%
(+0.0%)		13.3%
(+0.0%)
Sat, Sep 19
AkronAKR@MinnesotaMINN
13.4%
(+0.1%)		13.3%
(-0.0%)
BuffaloBUF@Penn StPSU
13.8%
(+0.4%)		13.3%
(+0.0%)
KentKENT@Ohio StOSU
13.7%
(+0.4%)		13.3%
(+0.0%)
E MichiganEMU@WisconsinWIS
13.1%
(-0.2%)		13.3%
(+0.0%)
Southern IllinoisSIU@IllinoisILL
13.4%
(+0.0%)		13.3%
(+0.0%)
USCUSC@RutgersRUTG
13.6%
(+0.3%)		4.0%
(-9.3%)
UTEPUTEP@MichiganMICH
13.2%
(-0.1%)		13.3%
(+0.0%)
Northern IowaUNI@IowaIOWA
13.2%
(-0.1%)		13.3%
(+0.0%)
WKUWKU@IndianaIU
13.1%
(-0.2%)		13.3%
(+0.0%)
Eastern WashingtonEWU@WashingtonWASH
13.3%
(-0.1%)		13.3%
(+0.0%)
North DakotaUND@NebraskaNEB
13.3%
(-0.0%)		13.3%
(+0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@NorthwesternNU
13.4%
(+0.0%)		13.3%
(-0.0%)
Michigan StMSU@Notre DameND
12.8%
(-0.5%)		13.3%
(+0.0%)
Virginia TechVT@MarylandMD
13.3%
(-0.0%)		13.4%
(+0.0%)
PurduePUR@UCLAUCLA
13.0%
(-0.3%)		13.4%
(+0.1%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

USCLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
USC CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.7%
Any 1 loss
97.7%
7.2%
Wisconsin
99.8%
0.1%
UCLA
99.7%
0.2%
Rutgers
99.5%
<0.1%
Penn St
99.2%
0.8%
Maryland
99.1%
<0.1%
Washington
98.8%
<0.1%
Ohio St
97.7%
2.7%
Indiana
97.1%
2.7%
Oregon
96.6%
0.4%
Any 2 losses
22.9%
24.1%
RutgersWisconsin
78.8%
<0.1%
RutgersUCLA
78.7%
<0.1%
MarylandWashington
75.0%
<0.1%
MarylandWisconsin
74.1%
<0.1%
WashingtonWisconsin
73.6%
<0.1%
UCLAWashington
70.2%
<0.1%
MarylandRutgers
69.0%
<0.1%
RutgersWashington
68.0%
<0.1%
MarylandUCLA
66.9%
<0.1%
UCLAWisconsin
65.1%
<0.1%
OregonRutgers
55.1%
<0.1%
OregonWisconsin
54.1%
<0.1%
Ohio StWisconsin
49.9%
0.4%
MarylandOregon
49.8%
<0.1%
OregonUCLA
48.5%
0.1%
Ohio StUCLA
46.9%
0.8%
MarylandOhio St
46.6%
0.3%
Penn StWisconsin
45.9%
0.1%
Ohio StRutgers
44.6%
<0.1%
IndianaWisconsin
44.1%
0.4%
MarylandPenn St
42.6%
<0.1%
Penn StUCLA
42.6%
0.2%
IndianaUCLA
41.7%
0.8%
OregonWashington
41.5%
<0.1%
Ohio StWashington
41.1%
0.3%
IndianaMaryland
40.3%
0.3%
Penn StRutgers
39.6%
<0.1%
IndianaWashington
38.7%
0.3%
Penn StWashington
38.6%
0.1%
IndianaRutgers
36.5%
<0.1%
OregonPenn St
28.2%
0.5%
Ohio StOregon
26.5%
1.6%
IndianaOregon
22.9%
1.6%
Ohio StPenn St
21.3%
2.9%
IndianaPenn St
17.9%
2.9%
IndianaOhio St
13.5%
9.9%
Any 3 losses
0.9%
2.1%
UCLAWashingtonWisconsin
5.0%
<0.1%
Penn StRutgersWisconsin
4.2%
<0.1%
Penn StRutgersWashington
3.6%
<0.1%
MarylandUCLAWisconsin
3.2%
<0.1%
Ohio StRutgersWisconsin
2.6%
<0.1%
MarylandOhio StRutgers
2.5%
<0.1%
MarylandOhio StWisconsin
2.2%
<0.1%
MarylandPenn StWashington
1.8%
<0.1%
Ohio StWashingtonWisconsin
1.7%
<0.1%
Ohio StUCLAWisconsin
1.7%
0.1%
MarylandOhio StUCLA
1.6%
<0.1%
Ohio StRutgersWashington
1.4%
<0.1%
Ohio StUCLAWashington
1.1%
<0.1%
Penn StUCLAWisconsin
1.0%
<0.1%
Ohio StRutgersUCLA
1.0%
<0.1%
MarylandOhio StWashington
0.9%
<0.1%
OregonUCLAWashington
0.8%
<0.1%
Penn StWashingtonWisconsin
0.8%
<0.1%
Ohio StPenn StRutgers
0.8%
<0.1%
Penn StUCLAWashington
0.8%
<0.1%
MarylandOhio StOregon
0.7%
0.2%
MarylandPenn StWisconsin
0.7%
<0.1%
OregonPenn StRutgers
0.7%
<0.1%
MarylandOregonUCLA
0.7%
<0.1%
Ohio StPenn StWisconsin
0.7%
0.4%
MarylandOhio StPenn St
0.6%
0.3%
IndianaWashingtonWisconsin
0.6%
<0.1%
Ohio StOregonWisconsin
0.6%
0.2%
OregonUCLAWisconsin
0.6%
<0.1%
IndianaUCLAWisconsin
0.5%
0.1%
IndianaUCLAWashington
0.5%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

USCCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com