USCTrojans
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is USC's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
USC has a 12.2% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. USC's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29 | Win prob:98% | ||
| 9/04 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:95% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:81% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:37% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:29% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:31% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:86% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 4.3% | 97.9% |
| 7-2 | 14.9% | 47.0% |
| 6-3 | 27.5% | 2.1% |
| 5-4 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 17.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 12.0% (-0.2%) | 12.2% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.4%Any 1 loss
97.9%
3.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.4%99.3%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.5%
0.9%98.4%
<0.1%97.0%
0.7%96.3%
1.0%Any 2 losses
49.9%
13.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%98.0%
0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.4%
0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%79.8%
0.1%78.6%
0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.6%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%69.1%
0.2%68.6%
0.2%68.5%
0.1%68.3%
0.3%66.1%
0.2%65.3%
0.3%64.6%
0.1%63.3%
0.3%62.5%
0.2%62.4%
0.2%61.0%
0.1%59.9%
0.3%59.5%
0.2%59.1%
0.4%57.7%
0.4%56.0%
0.4%49.9%
0.8%44.4%
0.7%43.8%
0.9%35.8%
1.6%31.1%
2.1%28.3%
1.7%Any 3 losses
6.2%
25.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
0.1%38.2%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.4%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.0%
0.2%30.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.6%
0.3%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
0.2%23.1%
0.1%22.5%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.3%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%5.1%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
0.2%4.5%
0.1%4.4%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.3%3.6%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.4%
0.6%3.3%
0.3%3.0%
0.2%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.7%
0.4%2.7%
0.3%2.6%
0.8%2.5%
0.4%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.1%
0.6%2.1%
<0.1%1.9%
0.3%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.4%1.6%
0.4%1.5%
0.7%1.5%
0.3%1.5%
0.7%1.5%
0.4%1.5%
2.1%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
0.4%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.6%1.1%
0.9%1.0%
0.7%1.0%
1.5%0.8%
1.6%0.6%
3.9%Any 4 losses
5.3%
2.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
0.3%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26