USC

USCTrojans

0-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

12.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is USC's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?

USC has a 12.2% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. USC's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

USCSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
8/29
Win prob:98%
9/04
Win prob:90%
9/12
Win prob:95%
9/19
Win prob:81%
9/26
Win prob:37%
10/03
Win prob:71%
10/10
Win prob:52%
10/24
Win prob:72%
10/31
Win prob:29%
11/14
Win prob:31%
11/21
Win prob:86%
11/28
Win prob:80%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

USCRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.4%
100.0%
8-1
4.3%
97.9%
7-2
14.9%
47.0%
6-3
27.5%
2.1%
5-4
28.1%
0%
4-5
17.2%
0%
3-6
6.2%
0%
2-7
1.3%
0%
1-8
0.1%
0%
0-9
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely USC CCG Opponents

if USC makes the CCG

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

USCThis Week's Impact

Game
USCCCG OddsAway
USCCCG OddsHome
12.0%
(-0.2%)
12.2%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

USCLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
USC CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.4%
Any 1 loss
97.9%
3.6%
Fresno St
100.0%
<0.1%
Washington
100.0%
0.1%
Rutgers
100.0%
0.1%
San Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
Penn St
99.8%
0.4%
Wisconsin
99.3%
0.1%
UCLA
98.9%
<0.1%
Indiana
98.5%
0.9%
Maryland
98.4%
<0.1%
Oregon
97.0%
0.7%
Ohio St
96.3%
1.0%
Any 2 losses
49.9%
13.1%
LouisianaWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
MarylandRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StPenn St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
OregonSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
MarylandUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
San Jose StUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Penn StSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOregon
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaPenn St
100.0%
<0.1%
San Jose StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMaryland
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
MarylandSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMaryland
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
RutgersSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
San Jose StWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio St
98.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio St
98.0%
0.1%
Fresno StOregon
97.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndiana
97.4%
0.1%
MarylandWisconsin
96.0%
<0.1%
Ohio StSan Jose St
95.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StWashington
95.2%
<0.1%
MarylandWashington
87.0%
<0.1%
UCLAWashington
86.8%
<0.1%
RutgersWisconsin
84.6%
<0.1%
WashingtonWisconsin
84.6%
<0.1%
RutgersWashington
84.0%
<0.1%
UCLAWisconsin
81.6%
<0.1%
Penn StUCLA
79.8%
0.1%
Penn StRutgers
78.6%
0.1%
RutgersUCLA
77.3%
<0.1%
Penn StWisconsin
76.6%
0.1%
MarylandPenn St
72.7%
<0.1%
Ohio StRutgers
69.1%
0.2%
IndianaUCLA
68.6%
0.2%
Penn StWashington
68.5%
0.1%
IndianaRutgers
68.3%
0.3%
OregonUCLA
66.1%
0.2%
IndianaWisconsin
65.3%
0.3%
MarylandOregon
64.6%
0.1%
OregonWisconsin
63.3%
0.3%
Ohio StUCLA
62.5%
0.2%
OregonRutgers
62.4%
0.2%
IndianaMaryland
61.0%
0.1%
OregonWashington
59.9%
0.3%
MarylandOhio St
59.5%
0.2%
Ohio StWashington
59.1%
0.4%
Ohio StWisconsin
57.7%
0.4%
IndianaWashington
56.0%
0.4%
IndianaPenn St
49.9%
0.8%
OregonPenn St
44.4%
0.7%
Ohio StPenn St
43.8%
0.9%
IndianaOregon
35.8%
1.6%
IndianaOhio St
31.1%
2.1%
Ohio StOregon
28.3%
1.7%
Any 3 losses
6.2%
25.0%
IndianaLouisianaMaryland
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarylandRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaRutgersSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaPenn St
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaPenn StRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaOregon
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarylandWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StRutgersWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUCLAWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
MarylandOhio StSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
MarylandSan Jose StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaSan Jose StUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaPenn StSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
RutgersSan Jose StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMarylandUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
Penn StSan Jose StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
MarylandPenn StSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaSan Jose StWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Jose StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregonSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarylandUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StRutgersUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Jose StWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaRutgersWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaRutgersWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOregonWisconsin
88.2%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarylandOhio St
87.5%
<0.1%
Ohio StSan Jose StUCLA
87.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StPenn StUCLA
83.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaLouisiana
83.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StMarylandWashington
80.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StRutgersWisconsin
80.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaRutgers
77.8%
<0.1%
Ohio StSan Jose StWisconsin
77.8%
<0.1%
OregonSan Jose StWisconsin
77.8%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaRutgers
77.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StMarylandWisconsin
75.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StRutgers
75.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMarylandOhio St
75.0%
<0.1%
OregonSan Jose StWashington
75.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StWisconsin
75.0%
<0.1%
IndianaSan Jose StWisconsin
75.0%
<0.1%
OregonSan Jose StUCLA
75.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaWashington
72.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaPenn StWisconsin
72.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StMarylandPenn St
72.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaOhio St
71.4%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaWisconsin
70.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMarylandOregon
68.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregonRutgers
68.8%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaWashington
67.9%
<0.1%
IndianaSan Jose StUCLA
66.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaWashingtonWisconsin
66.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregonUCLA
66.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaUCLAWashington
66.7%
<0.1%
IndianaMarylandSan Jose St
66.7%
<0.1%
Penn StSan Jose StUCLA
66.7%
<0.1%
RutgersSan Jose StWashington
66.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaPenn StUCLA
66.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaMaryland
62.5%
<0.1%
LouisianaOregonRutgers
62.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StWashington
62.2%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StUCLA
62.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StUCLA
60.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StWashingtonWisconsin
60.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarylandPenn St
60.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregonWisconsin
59.4%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaUCLA
59.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaWisconsin
59.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOregonUCLA
57.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StPenn StWashington
55.6%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaPenn St
55.4%
<0.1%
Fresno StPenn StWisconsin
54.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StPenn StRutgers
54.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StWisconsin
52.4%
<0.1%
Ohio StPenn StSan Jose St
52.4%
<0.1%
IndianaPenn StSan Jose St
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StPenn St
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StRutgers
50.0%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaUCLA
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaPenn StWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
IndianaSan Jose StWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
Penn StRutgersSan Jose St
50.0%
<0.1%
Ohio StSan Jose StWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
MarylandRutgersWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaRutgersUCLA
50.0%
<0.1%
Penn StSan Jose StWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUCLAWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
MarylandOregonSan Jose St
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregonPenn St
49.3%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaPenn St
47.8%
<0.1%
LouisianaOregonPenn St
44.4%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregonWashington
43.2%
<0.1%
Ohio StRutgersSan Jose St
42.9%
<0.1%
OregonPenn StSan Jose St
41.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaOregonWashington
41.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StPenn St
40.8%
<0.1%
OregonRutgersSan Jose St
40.0%
<0.1%
MarylandRutgersWashington
40.0%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaOhio St
39.1%
0.1%
IndianaOregonSan Jose St
38.2%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarylandOregon
37.5%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaOregon
37.4%
<0.1%
IndianaOhio StSan Jose St
34.4%
<0.1%
MarylandRutgersUCLA
33.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaOregon
33.0%
0.2%
LouisianaOhio StWashington
30.0%
<0.1%
RutgersUCLAWisconsin
26.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaOhio St
26.6%
0.3%
MarylandUCLAWisconsin
25.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StOregon
24.0%
0.2%
LouisianaOhio StOregon
23.1%
0.1%
Ohio StOregonSan Jose St
22.5%
<0.1%
OregonRutgersUCLA
21.7%
<0.1%
MarylandPenn StRutgers
12.5%
<0.1%
MarylandOhio StWisconsin
9.7%
<0.1%
Ohio StUCLAWashington
9.3%
0.1%
OregonUCLAWisconsin
8.4%
<0.1%
MarylandOhio StRutgers
8.1%
<0.1%
MarylandPenn StWisconsin
8.0%
<0.1%
MarylandPenn StWashington
7.7%
<0.1%
MarylandPenn StUCLA
7.7%
<0.1%
MarylandOhio StWashington
7.5%
<0.1%
IndianaRutgersWashington
7.3%
0.1%
Ohio StRutgersUCLA
7.3%
<0.1%
IndianaMarylandUCLA
6.9%
<0.1%
OregonWashingtonWisconsin
6.8%
<0.1%
IndianaUCLAWashington
6.8%
0.1%
MarylandOregonRutgers
6.7%
<0.1%
MarylandOregonWashington
6.7%
<0.1%
RutgersWashingtonWisconsin
6.7%
<0.1%
OregonRutgersWisconsin
6.6%
<0.1%
Penn StRutgersWisconsin
6.3%
<0.1%
MarylandOhio StUCLA
6.1%
<0.1%
IndianaMarylandRutgers
6.0%
<0.1%
Ohio StRutgersWisconsin
5.6%
<0.1%
Ohio StUCLAWisconsin
5.3%
<0.1%
IndianaPenn StRutgers
5.2%
0.2%
OregonUCLAWashington
5.1%
<0.1%
IndianaRutgersUCLA
4.7%
<0.1%
Ohio StPenn StUCLA
4.6%
0.2%
MarylandOhio StPenn St
4.5%
0.1%
IndianaWashingtonWisconsin
4.4%
0.2%
Ohio StRutgersWashington
4.2%
<0.1%
Penn StRutgersUCLA
4.2%
<0.1%
IndianaMarylandOhio St
4.1%
0.3%
Ohio StWashingtonWisconsin
3.6%
0.2%
MarylandOregonUCLA
3.6%
<0.1%
MarylandOregonPenn St
3.5%
0.1%
IndianaOhio StUCLA
3.4%
0.6%
IndianaPenn StWisconsin
3.3%
0.3%
Ohio StPenn StRutgers
3.0%
0.2%
OregonPenn StUCLA
3.0%
0.1%
Penn StRutgersWashington
2.9%
<0.1%
IndianaPenn StUCLA
2.7%
0.2%
IndianaOregonUCLA
2.7%
0.4%
IndianaPenn StWashington
2.7%
0.3%
IndianaOhio StWisconsin
2.6%
0.8%
Ohio StPenn StWisconsin
2.5%
0.4%
IndianaUCLAWisconsin
2.5%
<0.1%
IndianaMarylandPenn St
2.5%
0.1%
IndianaOhio StRutgers
2.1%
0.6%
IndianaMarylandWisconsin
2.1%
<0.1%
OregonPenn StWashington
1.9%
0.3%
OregonRutgersWashington
1.9%
<0.1%
IndianaMarylandOregon
1.8%
0.2%
Ohio StPenn StWashington
1.7%
0.4%
Ohio StOregonUCLA
1.6%
0.4%
Ohio StOregonWashington
1.5%
0.7%
MarylandOhio StOregon
1.5%
0.3%
Ohio StOregonWisconsin
1.5%
0.7%
Ohio StOregonRutgers
1.5%
0.4%
IndianaOhio StPenn St
1.5%
2.1%
OregonPenn StRutgers
1.4%
0.1%
IndianaOregonRutgers
1.3%
0.4%
OregonPenn StWisconsin
1.2%
0.3%
IndianaRutgersWisconsin
1.2%
<0.1%
IndianaOregonWashington
1.1%
0.6%
IndianaOhio StWashington
1.1%
0.9%
IndianaOregonWisconsin
1.0%
0.7%
IndianaOregonPenn St
1.0%
1.5%
Ohio StOregonPenn St
0.8%
1.6%
IndianaOhio StOregon
0.6%
3.9%
Any 4 losses
5.3%
2.2%
Fresno StLouisianaPenn StUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaLouisianaRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaRutgersWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaOregonSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaPenn StSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaPenn StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaPenn StRutgersWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaLouisianaMaryland
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StPenn StSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaMarylandOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMarylandPenn StUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaSan Jose StUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StSan Jose StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMarylandOhio StSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StRutgersUCLAWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOregonSan Jose StWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
Penn StSan Jose StUCLAWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaOhio StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StSan Jose StWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMarylandSan Jose StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaLouisianaWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregonPenn StSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaOregonPenn St
80.0%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaPenn StSan Jose St
66.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaOhio StWashington
60.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaOhio StPenn St
60.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaLouisianaWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaOhio StUCLA
50.0%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaRutgersWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
Ohio StSan Jose StUCLAWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaOregonWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StSan Jose StWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StPenn StSan Jose St
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaMarylandPenn St
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StSan Jose StUCLA
50.0%
<0.1%
Ohio StSan Jose StUCLAWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaLouisianaPenn St
40.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaPenn StRutgersUCLA
33.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaOregonSan Jose St
33.3%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaUCLAWisconsin
33.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StMarylandWashingtonWisconsin
33.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaOhio StSan Jose St
33.3%
<0.1%
Ohio StRutgersSan Jose StWashington
33.3%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaRutgersUCLA
25.0%
<0.1%
IndianaMarylandSan Jose StWisconsin
25.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StLouisianaOhio StOregon
25.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaLouisianaOhio St
25.0%
<0.1%
IndianaPenn StRutgersSan Jose St
25.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOregonUCLAWashington
20.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMarylandOregonWisconsin
20.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregonRutgersUCLA
20.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StPenn StUCLA
20.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaLouisianaOregon
20.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StWashingtonWisconsin
16.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaMarylandOhio StPenn St
16.7%
<0.1%
OregonRutgersSan Jose StWisconsin
16.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StPenn StRutgersWashington
16.7%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaUCLAWashington
14.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaMarylandPenn St
14.3%
<0.1%
IndianaOhio StRutgersSan Jose St
14.3%
<0.1%
OregonPenn StRutgersSan Jose St
14.3%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaMarylandWashington
12.5%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaMarylandPenn St
12.5%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaPenn StWisconsin
12.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaMarylandWisconsin
12.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StPenn StWashingtonWisconsin
12.5%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StWashingtonWisconsin
11.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaRutgersWashington
10.0%
<0.1%
IndianaOregonSan Jose StWashington
9.1%
<0.1%
Ohio StPenn StSan Jose StWisconsin
9.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregonPenn StUCLA
8.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaOregonWashingtonWisconsin
8.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregonPenn StWisconsin
8.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StUCLAWisconsin
8.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregonRutgersWisconsin
8.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StMarylandOhio StPenn St
7.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StPenn StRutgers
7.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StPenn StUCLA
6.9%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StPenn StWisconsin
6.3%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StPenn StWashington
5.9%
<0.1%
Ohio StOregonSan Jose StWisconsin
5.6%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StPenn StRutgers
5.3%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaMarylandOhio St
5.3%
<0.1%
IndianaOhio StSan Jose StWisconsin
3.7%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaOhio StRutgers
3.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StOregonPenn St
3.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StPenn StWashington
3.6%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregonPenn StWashington
3.5%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaOhio StUCLA
3.2%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StPenn StWisconsin
3.2%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaPenn StUCLA
3.2%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaMarylandOregon
3.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaOhio StOregonWashington
3.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StOregonWisconsin
2.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StOregonWashington
2.6%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaOregonWisconsin
2.6%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaOregonRutgers
2.5%
<0.1%
IndianaOregonPenn StSan Jose St
2.4%
<0.1%
Ohio StOregonPenn StSan Jose St
2.4%
<0.1%
Fresno StOhio StOregonRutgers
2.1%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaOhio StWisconsin
2.0%
<0.1%
IndianaOhio StPenn StSan Jose St
2.0%
<0.1%
IndianaLouisianaOhio StPenn St
1.8%
0.1%
Fresno StIndianaOregonWashington
1.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaOhio StRutgers
1.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StIndianaOregonPenn St
1.3%
0.2%
Fresno StIndianaOhio StPenn St
1.2%
0.3%
IndianaOhio StOregonSan Jose St
1.0%
0.1%
Fresno StIndianaOhio StWisconsin
1.0%
0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com