USCTrojans

7-2 4th (4-2) in B1G

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

8.4%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is USC's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?

USC has a 8.4% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. USC's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does USC need to do to reach the Big Ten Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts USC's Big Ten Championship Game odds at 79.6%; even one more loss drops that to 0.9%.

What is the biggest game this week for USC's Big Ten Championship Game odds?

The biggest swing game for USC's Big Ten Championship Game odds this week isn't even its own: a Minnesota win would boost them to 9.7%, while a UCLA win would leave them at 7.9%.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/29	vsSan José StateSJSU	W42-26
1	9/04	vsFresno StateFRES	W39-0
2	9/12	vsLouisianaUL	W49-30
3	9/19	@RutgersRUTG	W42-35
4	9/26	vsOregonORE	L27-41
5	10/03	vsWashingtonWASH	W25-21
6	10/10	@Penn StatePSU	W31-23
8	10/24	@WisconsinWIS	L7-24
9	10/31	vsOhio StateOSU	W30-18
11	11/14	@IndianaIU	Win prob:21%
12	11/21	vsMarylandMD	Win prob:96%
13	11/28	@UCLAUCLA	Win prob:51%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-2	10.5%	79.6%
6-3	49.0%	0.1%
5-4	39.2%	0%
4-5	1.3%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

75.9%

13.8%

5.2%

3.9%

0.5%

0.5%

0.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6
	NebraskaNEB@IllinoisILL	8.4% (+0.0%)	8.4% (-0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7
	UCLAUCLA@MinnesotaMINN	7.9% (-0.5%)	9.7% (+1.3%)
	MarylandMD@PurduePUR	8.6% (+0.2%)	8.3% (-0.1%)
	OregonORE@Ohio StateOSU	8.9% (+0.5%)	8.3% (-0.1%)
	Penn StatePSU@WashingtonWASH	8.5% (+0.1%)	8.2% (-0.2%)
	RutgersRUTG@WisconsinWIS	8.6% (+0.2%)	8.4% (-0.0%)
	IowaIOWA@NorthwesternNU	8.3% (-0.0%)	8.4% (+0.0%)
	Michigan StateMSU@MichiganMICH	8.6% (+0.3%)	8.3% (-0.1%)