Rice

RiceOwls

0-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is Rice's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

Rice has a 1.3% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Rice's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

RiceSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/05
vsHouston ChristianHCU
Win prob:90%
9/12
@Notre DameND
Win prob:1%
9/19
vsW MichiganWMU
Win prob:34%
9/26
@Fresno StFRES
Win prob:21%
10/03
vsUT San AntonioUTSA
Win prob:37%
10/10
@East CarolinaECU
Win prob:18%
10/17
vsTulsaTLSA
Win prob:45%
10/24
@FL AtlanticFAU
Win prob:39%
11/07
@North TexasUNT
Win prob:29%
11/14
vsTulaneTULN
Win prob:22%
11/19
@TempleTEM
Win prob:33%
11/28
vsArmyARMY
Win prob:38%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

RiceRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.0%
100.0%
7-1
0.2%
97.8%
6-2
1.4%
59.2%
5-3
6.2%
4.8%
4-4
16.6%
0.0%
3-5
27.3%
0%
2-6
28.2%
0%
1-7
16.1%
0%
0-8
4.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Rice CCG Opponents

if Rice makes the CCG

TulaneTulane
35.0%
East CarolinaEast Carolina
22.3%
NavyNavy
18.4%
South FloridaSouth Florida
12.6%
MemphisMemphis
11.7%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

RiceThis Week's Impact

Game
RiceCCG OddsAway
RiceCCG OddsHome
MemphisMEM@UNLVUNLV
1.4%
(+0.0%)		1.3%
(-0.0%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

RiceLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Rice CCG Probability
Likelihood
Notre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
82.4%
0.2%
Fresno StNotre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTulaneW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulaneTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNotre DameTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFresno StNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulsaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulaneW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticFresno StNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNorth TexasNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTulsaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNotre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUT San AntonioW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameTulane
84.6%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre Dame
80.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameUT San Antonio
77.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameTulane
75.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasNotre Dame
75.0%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameTemple
60.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTulane
60.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameTulane
55.6%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulaneUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleTulane
42.9%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTulane
33.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFL AtlanticNotre Dame
25.0%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
54.4%
0.7%
East CarolinaFresno StNotre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StTempleW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasNotre DameTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFresno StNotre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticFresno StNotre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StHouston ChristianNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTulsaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTempleW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameTulsaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulsaUT San AntonioW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameTulsaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameUT San AntonioW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameTempleW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleTulsaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNotre DameTulaneW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFL AtlanticHouston ChristianNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNotre DameTempleTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyHouston ChristianNotre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticNotre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticFresno StW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleUT San AntonioW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFresno StNotre DameTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNorth TexasNotre DameW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticFresno StTulaneW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulaneTulsaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHouston ChristianNotre DameTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyHouston ChristianNotre DameUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHouston ChristianNorth TexasNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNorth TexasNotre DameTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyHouston ChristianNotre DameTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameTulaneW Michigan
94.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasNotre DameW Michigan
90.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameTulsaW Michigan
88.9%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasNotre DameW Michigan
83.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticFresno StNotre DameTemple
83.3%
<0.1%
ArmyFresno StNotre DameUT San Antonio
80.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFresno StNorth TexasNotre Dame
80.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticFresno StNorth TexasNotre Dame
80.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameTempleTulsa
77.8%
<0.1%
ArmyFresno StNotre DameTulane
75.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasNotre DameTemple
73.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasNotre DameW Michigan
70.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameTulsaUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticFresno StNotre DameTulsa
66.7%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTulaneW Michigan
66.7%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleTulaneW Michigan
66.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameUT San AntonioW Michigan
66.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticFresno StNotre DameUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameTulaneTulsa
63.6%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StNotre DameUT San Antonio
62.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasNotre DameUT San Antonio
60.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameW Michigan
58.3%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTulaneW Michigan
57.1%
<0.1%
ArmyFresno StNotre DameTemple
55.6%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameUT San AntonioW Michigan
54.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFL AtlanticFresno StNotre Dame
53.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameTempleTulane
52.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StNotre DameTemple
52.4%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFresno StNotre Dame
50.0%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameUT San AntonioW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFL AtlanticNotre DameW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
Houston ChristianNotre DameTempleTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticFresno StNotre DameTulane
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameTempleW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameUT San AntonioW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre DameTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasNotre DameTulane
46.2%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StNotre DameTulsa
45.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameTulaneUT San Antonio
44.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameTulaneW Michigan
42.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StNotre DameTulane
42.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameTulaneW Michigan
41.2%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameTempleW Michigan
40.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StNorth TexasNotre Dame
38.5%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleTulaneUT San Antonio
33.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasNotre DameTulsa
25.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNotre DameTempleUT San Antonio
25.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFL AtlanticNotre DameTulsa
25.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNotre DameUT San Antonio
22.2%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulaneUT San AntonioW Michigan
22.2%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTempleTulsa
20.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticFresno StNotre Dame
20.0%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTulaneUT San Antonio
14.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFL AtlanticNotre DameTemple
14.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre DameTulane
12.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasNotre DameTemple
12.5%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulaneTulsaUT San Antonio
12.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre Dame
11.1%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNorth TexasNotre Dame
11.1%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNotre DameTempleUT San Antonio
10.0%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTempleTulane
5.3%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com