Rice

RiceOwls

1-1 T3rd (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.1%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Rice's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

Rice has a <0.1% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Rice's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

RiceSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsHouston ChristianHCU
W31-3
29/12
@Notre DameND
L0-52
39/19
vsW MichiganWMU
Win prob:14%
49/26
@Fresno StFRES
Win prob:9%
510/03
vsUT San AntonioUTSA
Win prob:24%
610/10
@East CarolinaECU
Win prob:14%
710/17
vsTulsaTLSA
Win prob:23%
810/24
@FL AtlanticFAU
Win prob:30%
1011/07
@North TexasUNT
Win prob:7%
1111/14
vsTulaneTULN
Win prob:17%
1211/19
@TempleTEM
Win prob:17%
1311/28
vsArmyARMY
Win prob:22%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

RiceRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0%
0%
7-1
0%
100.0%
6-2
0.1%
60.7%
5-3
0.7%
3.9%
4-4
3.8%
0%
3-5
13.5%
0%
2-6
29.2%
0%
1-7
34.9%
0%
0-8
17.8%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Rice CCG Opponents

if Rice makes the CCG

UNTNorth Texas
25.0%
USFSouth Florida
25.0%
TULNTulane
12.5%
MEMMemphis
12.5%
ECUEast Carolina
12.5%
UTSAUT San Antonio
12.5%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

RiceThis Week's Impact

Game
RiceCCG OddsAway Wins
RiceCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
North TexasUNT@Texas StTXST
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
TempleTEM@ToledoTOL
0.1%
(-0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@Appalachian StAPP
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
Florida IntlFIU@FL AtlanticFAU
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
Delaware StateDSU@South FloridaUSF
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
UT MartinUTM@MemphisMEM
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
W MichiganWMU@RiceRICE
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
East Texas A&METAM@TulsaTLSA
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
UABUAB@LouisianaUL
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TexasTEX
0.1%
(+0.1%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

RiceLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Rice CCG Probability
Likelihood
East Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%
North TexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
TulaneW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
TulsaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
TulaneUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFresno StW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTulsaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTulaneW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTulaneUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTulsaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFL AtlanticW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFresno St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTempleTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTempleUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFresno StTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTempleW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyUT San AntonioW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTulaneW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTempleW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTempleUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
TempleTulsaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTempleTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticFresno St
100.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticFresno StW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
TempleUT San AntonioW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StTulane
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasW Michigan
71.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticFresno StTemple
66.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticFresno StNorth Texas
66.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTulaneW Michigan
66.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasTemple
60.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFresno StNorth Texas
54.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasTulane
53.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
North TexasUT San AntonioW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTulsaW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTulaneTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyTulsaW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFresno StNorth Texas
43.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasW Michigan
40.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasW Michigan
40.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaUT San AntonioW Michigan
33.3%
<0.1%
North TexasTulaneUT San Antonio
25.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasTulane
20.0%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

RiceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com