HoustonCougars
6-2 T4th (3-2) in B12
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.8%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Houston's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Houston has a 15.8% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Houston's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Houston need to do to reach the Big XII Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Houston's Big XII Championship Game odds at 38.0%; even one more loss drops that to 2.8%.
What is the biggest game this week for Houston's Big XII Championship Game odds?
Houston's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Cincinnati would put its Big XII Championship Game odds at 18.5%, while a loss would drop them to 1.4%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W33-20 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W77-6 | |
| 3 | 9/18 | L26-28 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W42-28 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W27-17 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W35-16 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W35-32 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | L13-21 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:84% | |
| 11 | 11/13 | Win prob:85% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:80% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:67% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 38.4% | 38.0% |
| 6-3 | 42.4% | 2.8% |
| 5-4 | 16.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 17.8% (+2.1%) | 15.1% (-0.7%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 11.7% (-4.1%) | 17.6% (+1.8%) | ||
| 14.9% (-0.9%) | 15.9% (+0.2%) | ||
| 16.2% (+0.4%) | 15.1% (-0.7%) | ||
| 1.4% (-14.4%) | 18.5% (+2.7%) | ||
| 16.5% (+0.7%) | 15.3% (-0.4%) | ||
| 16.7% (+0.9%) | 15.3% (-0.5%) | ||
| 26.6% (+10.8%) | 15.0% (-0.8%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
TCU
UCFHouston
West Virginia
Baylor
Kansas State
UtahCCG: 46.2% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
HoustonUtahCCG: 20.5% • Scenario: 58.1%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02