HoustonCougars
2-0 T2nd (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.0%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Houston's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Houston has a 7.0% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Houston's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W33-20 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W77-6 | |
| 3 | 9/18 | Win prob:22% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:89% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:72% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:36% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:77% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:24% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:60% | |
| 11 | 11/13 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:68% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:62% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.8% | 97.1% |
| 7-2 | 8.2% | 51.6% |
| 6-3 | 20.0% | 4.8% |
| 5-4 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 24.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 18.4% (+11.3%) | 3.9% (-3.1%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 7.1% (+0.0%) | 7.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 6.9% (-0.1%) | 7.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.1% (+0.1%) | 7.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 7.0% (-0.0%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.0% (-0.1%) | 7.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.0% (-0.1%) | 7.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.2% (+0.1%) | 7.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 7.2% (+0.1%) | 7.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 7.0% (+0.0%) | 7.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.1% (+0.0%) | 7.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 7.1% (+0.0%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 6.9% (-0.1%) | 7.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.4% (+0.3%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
97.2%
1.6%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.8%
0.1%
99.6%
<0.1%
97.7%
<0.1%
97.7%
0.2%
97.5%
<0.1%
97.2%
0.4%
95.1%
0.5%Any 2 losses
52.8%
7.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%95.4%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.1%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%78.2%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%74.7%
<0.1%74.7%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.3%
0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%67.3%
0.2%65.1%
0.1%64.9%
<0.1%63.3%
0.1%60.3%
0.2%58.6%
0.1%58.2%
0.2%57.9%
<0.1%57.2%
0.2%56.9%
0.3%56.8%
0.4%53.6%
0.2%51.1%
0.8%51.0%
0.2%50.2%
0.9%50.2%
0.3%48.0%
0.3%39.9%
0.3%36.9%
0.3%36.7%
1.5%Any 3 losses
7.0%
18.6%90.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%77.9%
<0.1%77.5%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%67.8%
<0.1%66.4%
<0.1%64.8%
<0.1%62.4%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.5%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.5%
0.1%48.5%
<0.1%45.4%
<0.1%41.8%
<0.1%36.6%
<0.1%35.2%
0.2%16.0%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.5%
0.2%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.5%
0.3%6.4%
0.3%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
0.4%6.3%
0.4%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.4%
0.2%5.2%
0.2%5.1%
0.2%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
0.3%5.0%
0.6%4.8%
0.5%4.8%
0.5%4.7%
0.1%4.6%
0.7%4.6%
0.5%4.5%
0.5%4.5%
0.1%4.4%
0.2%4.3%
0.2%4.2%
0.3%4.2%
0.5%3.6%
1.1%3.5%
0.6%3.4%
0.6%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
2.7%2.9%
0.9%2.5%
1.0%Any 4 losses
4.4%
2.2%30.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%11.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.4%2.5%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17