HoustonCougars
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Houston's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Houston has a 9.8% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Houston's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:85% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/18 | Win prob:18% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:78% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:67% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:49% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 11/13 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.9% | 98.1% |
| 7-2 | 8.0% | 67.0% |
| 6-3 | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| 5-4 | 26.7% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 24.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 13.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 9.8% (+0.1%) | 9.7% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
98.4%
1.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%98.4%
0.1%96.4%
0.4%Any 2 losses
70.9%
5.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.3%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.5%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.5%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%76.4%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.5%
0.1%72.6%
0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%70.2%
0.4%68.0%
0.3%67.4%
<0.1%67.3%
0.1%66.7%
0.5%64.8%
0.3%58.4%
0.3%58.1%
0.2%54.7%
0.3%50.9%
0.7%Any 3 losses
23.4%
14.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.1%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.3%
0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.5%
0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.6%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%30.2%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.3%
0.3%19.6%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%18.8%
0.2%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.8%
0.1%16.6%
0.2%16.5%
0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.1%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%14.0%
0.3%14.0%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.9%
0.5%13.8%
<0.1%13.3%
0.3%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
0.1%12.7%
0.1%12.5%
0.1%12.2%
0.2%12.1%
0.2%11.8%
0.1%11.7%
0.2%11.7%
0.3%11.7%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.2%
0.2%10.7%
0.3%10.6%
0.2%10.4%
0.7%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
0.1%9.5%
0.5%9.5%
0.4%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.4%
0.6%9.3%
0.1%9.3%
0.2%8.9%
0.3%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
0.4%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
0.4%8.0%
<0.1%7.5%
0.4%7.3%
<0.1%6.8%
0.3%4.3%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
14.5%
7.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.3%
0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
0.2%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.9%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2026-08-26