Texas TechRed Raiders
2-0 T2nd (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
55.9%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Texas Tech's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Texas Tech has a 55.9% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Texas Tech's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W33-10 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W35-24 | |
| 3 | 9/18 | Win prob:78% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:99% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:87% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:66% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:85% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:93% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/26 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 12.9% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 30.6% | 90.8% |
| 7-2 | 31.0% | 47.0% |
| 6-3 | 17.7% | 4.2% |
| 5-4 | 6.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 30.2% (-25.8%) | 63.0% (+7.1%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 56.1% (+0.2%) | 55.6% (-0.3%) | ||
| 55.7% (-0.2%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 55.8% (-0.1%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 56.1% (+0.2%) | 55.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 55.7% (-0.2%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 55.7% (-0.2%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 56.0% (+0.1%) | 55.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 55.7% (-0.2%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 55.9% (-0.0%) | 56.1% (+0.1%) | ||
| 55.9% (-0.0%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 55.6% (-0.3%) | 56.0% (+0.1%) | ||
| 55.7% (-0.2%) | 55.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 56.3% (+0.4%) | 55.9% (-0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
12.7%Any 1 loss
90.8%
30.4%
100.0%
0.1%
94.5%
1.0%
94.3%
2.9%
93.4%
6.2%
92.8%
1.9%
92.2%
3.7%
88.8%
3.5%
88.4%
2.2%
88.2%
2.3%
87.6%
6.6%Any 2 losses
47.5%
31.0%95.5%
<0.1%94.5%
<0.1%92.8%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%90.8%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%88.4%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%84.5%
<0.1%68.5%
0.2%64.9%
0.3%62.8%
0.1%62.4%
0.9%60.5%
0.5%59.8%
1.4%58.9%
0.4%55.1%
0.5%54.8%
0.2%53.9%
1.8%53.5%
0.9%53.3%
0.8%53.1%
0.3%52.8%
0.5%52.1%
0.2%50.0%
0.5%49.9%
1.5%49.7%
0.5%49.4%
1.0%49.1%
1.0%47.7%
0.6%46.7%
0.3%45.9%
0.5%44.5%
3.2%44.2%
0.7%44.0%
1.7%43.3%
0.3%42.8%
0.9%42.6%
1.1%42.4%
1.9%39.0%
0.4%37.9%
1.1%37.6%
0.6%35.9%
0.6%34.8%
1.2%32.8%
1.8%Any 3 losses
4.8%
17.8%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%53.0%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%48.7%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%42.2%
<0.1%39.6%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%33.6%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%24.8%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
0.1%8.5%
0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
0.3%6.2%
0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.0%
0.8%5.9%
0.4%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
0.3%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
0.3%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
0.5%5.0%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
0.3%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
0.4%4.7%
0.1%4.7%
0.3%4.7%
0.2%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.4%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.1%
0.3%4.1%
0.2%4.0%
0.5%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
0.3%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.3%
0.5%3.2%
0.1%3.1%
0.3%3.1%
0.4%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
0.2%3.0%
0.3%3.0%
0.3%3.0%
0.9%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.6%2.9%
0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
0.3%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
0.5%2.5%
0.3%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.2%
0.3%2.2%
0.3%2.2%
0.3%2.1%
0.9%1.9%
0.3%Any 4 losses
5.7%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17