Texas TechRed Raiders
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
74.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Texas Tech's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Texas Tech has a 74.2% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Texas Tech's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:93% | ||
| 9/18 | Win prob:82% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:99% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:78% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:85% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:78% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:82% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:91% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:80% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 11/26 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 15.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 32.1% | 99.2% |
| 7-2 | 29.7% | 80.0% |
| 6-3 | 16.1% | 19.7% |
| 5-4 | 5.3% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 74.0% (-0.2%) | 74.4% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
12.9%Any 1 loss
99.3%
29.2%100.0%
1.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.9%99.6%
3.2%99.5%
1.4%99.4%
3.6%99.3%
3.6%99.2%
2.2%99.1%
4.4%99.1%
2.9%99.0%
2.6%98.8%
2.9%Any 2 losses
83.2%
29.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.4%99.7%
0.4%99.6%
0.2%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.5%99.2%
0.3%99.1%
0.2%99.0%
0.2%98.9%
0.4%98.9%
0.3%98.8%
0.3%98.8%
0.3%98.8%
0.3%98.4%
0.3%98.3%
0.2%97.9%
0.1%97.5%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%90.3%
0.4%87.5%
0.3%86.7%
1.0%86.0%
0.4%85.5%
0.4%85.4%
0.9%84.0%
0.6%83.7%
0.3%83.6%
0.7%83.4%
0.5%83.1%
1.2%82.8%
0.7%82.8%
1.2%82.5%
1.2%82.1%
0.6%81.4%
0.7%81.3%
0.7%81.1%
0.3%80.8%
0.3%80.7%
0.8%80.4%
0.8%79.5%
1.0%79.0%
0.5%78.6%
0.8%78.4%
0.7%76.5%
0.8%75.6%
0.9%75.5%
1.0%75.5%
0.8%74.7%
0.5%74.4%
0.8%74.3%
0.4%74.2%
1.0%73.6%
0.6%72.9%
0.6%69.2%
0.6%Any 3 losses
36.0%
18.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.4%
<0.1%87.7%
<0.1%87.3%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%87.2%
0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.7%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.2%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.9%
<0.1%81.8%
0.1%81.6%
0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.2%
<0.1%80.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%78.9%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%77.8%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.7%
0.1%77.6%
<0.1%77.5%
0.1%77.5%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%77.2%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%75.2%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.6%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%27.7%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%26.2%
0.1%25.9%
0.1%25.8%
0.3%25.7%
0.1%25.6%
<0.1%24.5%
0.2%24.4%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%23.9%
0.2%23.9%
0.1%23.8%
0.2%23.5%
0.2%23.3%
0.2%23.0%
0.4%23.0%
0.1%22.9%
0.1%22.9%
0.2%22.6%
0.1%22.2%
0.3%22.1%
0.1%22.1%
0.3%22.1%
0.3%22.0%
0.1%21.9%
0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.8%
0.1%21.8%
0.1%21.6%
0.2%21.3%
<0.1%21.3%
0.2%21.3%
0.3%20.9%
0.2%20.6%
<0.1%20.4%
0.2%20.3%
0.1%20.1%
0.1%20.1%
0.4%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
0.2%19.2%
0.1%19.1%
0.2%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
0.2%18.8%
<0.1%18.7%
0.3%18.4%
0.1%18.3%
0.2%18.2%
0.1%17.8%
0.2%17.8%
0.1%17.7%
<0.1%17.7%
0.2%17.6%
0.3%17.5%
0.2%17.5%
0.1%17.2%
0.2%17.1%
0.1%16.7%
0.2%16.5%
0.2%16.4%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.1%
0.3%16.1%
0.3%16.1%
<0.1%16.0%
0.3%15.7%
0.1%15.7%
0.3%15.3%
0.2%14.6%
0.1%14.4%
0.1%14.1%
0.2%13.7%
0.1%13.7%
0.2%12.1%
0.2%11.9%
0.1%11.8%
0.2%10.5%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
23.8%
3.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26