Texas Tech

Texas TechRed Raiders

7-1 T2nd (4-1) in B12

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

48.3%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Texas Tech's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

Texas Tech has a 48.3% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Texas Tech's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Texas Tech need to do to reach the Big XII Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Texas Tech's Big XII Championship Game odds at 94.0%; even one more loss drops that to 45.2%.

What is the biggest game this week for Texas Tech's Big XII Championship Game odds?

Texas Tech's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating West Virginia would put its Big XII Championship Game odds at 50.7%, while a loss would drop them to 16.5%.

Texas TechSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsAbilene ChristianACU
W33-10
29/12
@Oregon StORST
W35-24
39/18
vsHoustonHOU
W28-26
49/26
vsSam Houston StSHSU
W49-14
510/03
@ColoradoCOLO
W29-7
710/17
vsArizona StASU
W53-25
810/24
@CincinnatiCIN
L24-37
910/31
vsArizonaARIZ
W34-26
1011/07
vsWest VirginiaWVU
Win prob:93%
1111/14
@Oklahoma StOKST
Win prob:62%
1211/21
@BaylorBAY
Win prob:60%
1311/26
vsTCUTCU
Win prob:84%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas TechRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-1
29.4%
94.0%
7-2
45.0%
45.2%
6-3
21.9%
1.8%
5-4
3.6%
0%
4-5
0.2%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Texas Tech CCG Opponents

if Texas Tech makes the CCG

UTAHUtah
78.2%
BYUBYU
15.9%
ARIZArizona
3.7%
HOUHouston
2.0%
BAYBaylor
0.1%
OKSTOklahoma St
0.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas TechThis Week's Impact

Game
Texas TechCCG OddsAway Wins
Texas TechCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6
TCUTCU@ArizonaARIZ
49.8%
(+1.5%)		47.8%
(-0.5%)
Sat, Nov 7
BYUBYU@UtahUTAH
40.0%
(-8.3%)		52.0%
(+3.7%)
Iowa StISU@BaylorBAY
48.5%
(+0.2%)		48.3%
(-0.1%)
Oklahoma StOKST@Kansas StKSU
47.4%
(-0.8%)		49.6%
(+1.3%)
CincinnatiCIN@HoustonHOU
49.8%
(+1.5%)		48.0%
(-0.3%)
UCFUCF@KansasKU
48.2%
(-0.1%)		48.4%
(+0.1%)
ColoradoCOLO@Arizona StASU
48.4%
(+0.1%)		48.2%
(-0.1%)
West VirginiaWVU@Texas TechTTU
16.5%
(-31.8%)		50.7%
(+2.4%)

Best Winner Combination for Texas Tech

Arizona StArizona StateTCUTCUUCFUCFCincinnatiCincinnatiTexas TechTexas TechIowa StIowa StateKansas StKansas StateUtahUtah

CCG: 60.6% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Texas Tech

Texas TechTexas TechUtahUtah

CCG: 54.5% • Scenario: 64.3%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas TechLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Texas Tech CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
94.0%
29.4%
Any 1 loss
45.2%
45.0%
West Virginia
48.2%
2.2%
Baylor
45.2%
19.5%
TCU
45.1%
5.5%
Oklahoma St
44.9%
17.8%
Any 2 losses
1.8%
21.9%
TCUWest Virginia
5.3%
0.4%
Oklahoma StWest Virginia
2.6%
1.3%
Oklahoma StTCU
2.5%
3.3%
BaylorWest Virginia
2.0%
1.4%
BaylorTCU
1.8%
3.6%
BaylorOklahoma St
1.3%
11.8%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas TechCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com