UtahUtes
2-0 T2nd (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
42.5%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Utah's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Utah has a 42.5% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Utah's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/03 | W66-14 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W43-10 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:98% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:84% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:92% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:75% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:57% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:71% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:70% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 7.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 23.1% | 91.3% |
| 7-2 | 31.3% | 43.1% |
| 6-3 | 23.7% | 2.9% |
| 5-4 | 10.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 47.6% (+5.1%) | 41.1% (-1.4%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 42.1% (-0.4%) | 43.1% (+0.6%) | ||
| 42.5% (+0.1%) | 42.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 42.6% (+0.1%) | 42.4% (-0.0%) | ||
| 42.3% (-0.2%) | 42.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 42.5% (+0.1%) | 42.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 42.3% (-0.2%) | 42.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 42.6% (+0.2%) | 42.4% (-0.0%) | ||
| 42.7% (+0.3%) | 42.4% (-0.0%) | ||
| 42.5% (+0.0%) | 42.4% (-0.1%) | ||
| 42.5% (+0.1%) | 42.4% (-0.1%) | ||
| 42.4% (-0.0%) | 42.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 42.4% (-0.1%) | 42.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 42.9% (+0.5%) | 42.4% (-0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
7.1%Any 1 loss
91.4%
22.8%
99.9%
0.1%
97.1%
0.7%
96.7%
1.4%
96.2%
0.6%
95.3%
2.3%
92.0%
2.2%
91.9%
2.9%
91.3%
3.1%
91.1%
4.2%
86.5%
5.3%Any 2 losses
43.7%
31.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%92.4%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%86.9%
0.1%71.9%
<0.1%66.3%
0.1%64.8%
0.2%64.3%
0.1%60.8%
0.5%59.3%
0.2%58.6%
0.3%58.5%
0.5%57.9%
0.3%55.9%
0.2%54.9%
0.3%54.2%
0.3%54.2%
0.4%53.2%
0.6%53.1%
0.8%52.6%
0.4%52.0%
1.0%50.4%
0.2%50.2%
0.4%49.1%
0.7%47.4%
1.0%46.9%
1.4%46.4%
1.2%46.3%
1.7%44.9%
1.0%44.6%
0.4%43.8%
0.9%43.7%
0.5%42.8%
1.8%39.1%
1.0%38.8%
1.8%37.5%
1.3%37.1%
2.1%32.9%
2.3%32.1%
3.1%30.2%
1.7%Any 3 losses
4.0%
23.8%100.0%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%57.3%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%53.5%
<0.1%52.3%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%50.4%
<0.1%50.1%
<0.1%49.3%
<0.1%49.0%
<0.1%46.5%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.7%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%36.9%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%31.9%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.7%
0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.3%
0.2%4.3%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.1%
0.1%4.1%
0.4%4.0%
0.3%4.0%
0.3%3.9%
0.4%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.8%
0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
0.6%3.6%
0.3%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
0.3%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
0.2%3.3%
0.6%3.2%
0.1%3.2%
0.4%3.1%
0.1%3.1%
0.2%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.3%3.1%
0.3%2.9%
0.8%2.9%
0.3%2.7%
0.6%2.6%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
1.3%2.4%
0.5%2.4%
0.7%2.3%
0.4%2.3%
0.9%2.2%
0.3%2.2%
0.3%2.2%
0.4%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
1.3%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
0.6%1.8%
0.8%1.7%
0.7%1.7%
1.0%1.5%
0.6%1.4%
0.7%0.9%
1.0%Any 4 losses
3.4%
0.4%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17