UtahUtes
8-0 1st (5-0) in B12
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
84.4%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Utah's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Utah has a 84.4% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Utah's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Utah need to do to reach the Big XII Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Utah's Big XII Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 100%.
What is the biggest game this week for Utah's Big XII Championship Game odds?
Utah's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating BYU would put its Big XII Championship Game odds at 94.7%, while a loss would drop them to 61.3%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/03 | W66-14 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W43-10 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W33-0 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W31-17 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W41-24 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W27-24 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | W21-13 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | W49-25 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 29.7% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 44.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 21.8% | 46.4% |
| 6-3 | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 5-4 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 87.9% (+3.6%) | 83.2% (-1.2%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 61.3% (-23.1%) | 94.7% (+10.4%) | ||
| 85.3% (+0.9%) | 84.2% (-0.2%) | ||
| 84.3% (-0.1%) | 84.5% (+0.1%) | ||
| 83.8% (-0.5%) | 84.5% (+0.1%) | ||
| 83.7% (-0.6%) | 84.7% (+0.4%) | ||
| 84.8% (+0.4%) | 84.1% (-0.2%) | ||
| 90.1% (+5.7%) | 83.9% (-0.4%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
TCU
Kansas
Houston
West Virginia
Iowa State
Kansas StateUtahCCG: 98.6% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UtahCCG: 94.7% • Scenario: 69.1%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02