UtahUtes
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Utah's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Utah has a 15.0% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Utah's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/03 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:85% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:45% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:47% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:49% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:74% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.6% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 4.0% | 96.8% |
| 7-2 | 12.9% | 64.0% |
| 6-3 | 23.5% | 9.6% |
| 5-4 | 26.6% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 19.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 9.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 15.0% (-0.0%) | 15.0% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
96.4%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.2%98.0%
0.3%97.5%
0.2%97.3%
0.1%96.1%
0.3%95.9%
0.2%95.5%
<0.1%94.5%
0.3%92.1%
0.4%Any 2 losses
70.9%
8.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.2%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.6%
0.2%97.5%
<0.1%97.4%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.8%
0.2%96.8%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%93.4%
0.2%89.6%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%80.4%
0.1%77.0%
0.1%76.7%
0.1%76.5%
0.1%74.8%
0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.4%
0.1%74.2%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.7%
0.1%73.6%
0.2%72.8%
0.1%71.1%
0.1%70.4%
0.2%69.9%
0.1%68.8%
0.2%67.5%
0.3%67.4%
0.3%67.0%
0.3%66.3%
0.2%66.2%
<0.1%66.0%
0.1%65.0%
0.2%63.1%
0.2%62.8%
0.1%62.5%
0.2%60.8%
0.1%58.6%
0.2%55.6%
0.2%53.5%
0.3%52.4%
0.3%51.9%
0.4%50.8%
0.2%42.6%
0.4%Any 3 losses
28.4%
17.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.3%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.5%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
<0.1%74.5%
<0.1%74.5%
<0.1%74.2%
0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.6%
0.2%72.4%
0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.2%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.5%
0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%65.3%
<0.1%64.9%
0.1%64.5%
0.1%64.5%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.5%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.9%
0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%59.4%
0.1%59.3%
0.2%59.1%
0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.2%
<0.1%58.1%
0.2%58.0%
0.2%57.9%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.1%
0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.9%
0.2%50.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.6%
0.2%47.2%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%22.0%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.3%
<0.1%18.1%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.7%
0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.9%
0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.1%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
0.2%14.8%
0.2%14.7%
<0.1%14.5%
0.1%13.8%
0.1%13.6%
0.1%13.5%
0.1%13.5%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.8%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.2%
0.1%12.1%
0.1%11.4%
0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.9%
0.2%10.6%
0.3%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.5%
0.2%9.4%
0.2%9.3%
<0.1%9.3%
0.3%9.2%
0.1%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
0.2%8.8%
0.2%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
0.4%8.7%
0.3%8.6%
0.1%8.5%
0.2%8.3%
0.1%8.1%
0.2%8.0%
0.3%7.9%
0.2%7.9%
0.1%7.7%
0.1%7.5%
0.2%7.5%
0.1%7.2%
0.2%7.2%
0.1%6.7%
0.3%6.7%
0.2%6.4%
0.1%6.3%
0.3%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
0.3%5.8%
0.4%5.7%
0.3%5.7%
0.1%5.2%
0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.7%
0.3%4.0%
0.2%Any 4 losses
15.5%
10.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.1%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.9%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
0.2%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.2%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.2%
0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.2%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
0.2%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26