Troy

TroyTrojans

2-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

11.6%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Troy's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

Troy has a 11.6% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Troy's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

TroySchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsSam Houston StSHSU
W24-21
29/12
vsAlabama StateALST
W34-17
39/19
@MissouriMIZ
Win prob:2%
49/26
@Utah StUSU
Win prob:35%
610/06
vsSouthern MissUSM
Win prob:53%
710/17
@LouisianaUL
Win prob:34%
810/24
vsULMULM
Win prob:92%
910/29
@James MadisonJMU
Win prob:17%
1011/07
vsLouisiana TechLT
Win prob:51%
1111/14
@South AlabamaUSA
Win prob:39%
1211/21
vsGa SouthernGASO
Win prob:55%
1311/28
@Arkansas StARST
Win prob:42%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.1%
100.0%
7-1
1.6%
84.9%
6-2
7.9%
56.9%
5-3
20.2%
21.4%
4-4
29.6%
4.4%
3-5
25.5%
0.0%
2-6
12.2%
0%
1-7
2.8%
0%
0-8
0.2%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Troy CCG Opponents

if Troy makes the CCG

JMUJames Madison
47.0%
APPAppalachian St
24.0%
ODUOld Dominion
10.1%
GASOGa Southern
8.8%
GASTGeorgia St
4.9%
CCUCoastal Car
4.5%
MRSHMarshall
0.8%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyThis Week's Impact

Game
TroyCCG OddsAway Wins
TroyCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
Coastal CarCCU@DelawareDEL
11.5%
(-0.1%)		11.6%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
11.8%
(+0.2%)		11.6%
(-0.0%)
SE LouisianaSELA@ULMULM
11.6%
(+0.0%)		11.6%
(+0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@Appalachian StAPP
11.6%
(+0.0%)		11.6%
(+0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
11.6%
(+0.0%)		11.6%
(-0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Missouri StMOST
11.6%
(+0.0%)		11.6%
(-0.0%)
Ga SouthernGASO@Jacksonville StJXST
11.7%
(+0.1%)		11.5%
(-0.1%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
11.7%
(+0.1%)		11.6%
(-0.0%)
OhioOHIO@South AlabamaUSA
11.6%
(-0.0%)		11.6%
(+0.0%)
TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ
11.8%
(+0.2%)		11.6%
(+0.0%)
UConnCONN@Southern MissUSM
11.5%
(-0.1%)		11.7%
(+0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
11.5%
(-0.1%)		11.6%
(+0.0%)
UABUAB@LouisianaUL
11.6%
(+0.0%)		11.6%
(-0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@San Diego StSDSU
11.6%
(-0.0%)		11.6%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Troy CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
85.9%
0.7%
James MadisonMissouri
100.0%
0.2%
Ga SouthernMissouri
100.0%
<0.1%
MissouriUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames Madison
100.0%
<0.1%
MissouriULM
100.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechULM
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ULMUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
South AlabamaUtah St
85.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouthern Miss
83.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMissouri
82.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames Madison
81.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa Southern
81.8%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth Alabama
79.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StUtah St
79.2%
<0.1%
Southern MissUtah St
76.9%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouth Alabama
75.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisiana Tech
75.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisiana
74.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouth Alabama
71.4%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechUtah St
68.2%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouthern Miss
66.7%
<0.1%
MissouriSouthern Miss
65.3%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana
64.5%
<0.1%
LouisianaMissouri
63.8%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMissouri
60.2%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana Tech
60.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaUtah St
58.3%
<0.1%
South AlabamaULM
25.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana Tech
14.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana
11.5%
<0.1%
South AlabamaSouthern Miss
10.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouth Alabama
8.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StSouthern Miss
7.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaLouisiana Tech
4.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StSouth Alabama
4.5%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
63.7%
4.0%
James MadisonMissouriUtah St
100.0%
0.4%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonMissouri
100.0%
0.2%
Ga SouthernMissouriUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
MissouriULMUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMissouriULM
100.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonMissouriULM
100.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonULMUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernUtah St
93.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonUtah St
92.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernJames Madison
92.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernMissouri
87.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonSouth Alabama
85.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonMissouri
84.9%
0.3%
Arkansas StMissouriUtah St
84.9%
0.1%
Ga SouthernMissouriSouth Alabama
84.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonMissouriSouth Alabama
80.8%
0.3%
MissouriSouth AlabamaUtah St
80.7%
0.1%
James MadisonSouth AlabamaUtah St
80.0%
<0.1%
South AlabamaULMUtah St
80.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouthern MissUtah St
79.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisiana
76.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouthern MissUtah St
70.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonSouthern Miss
69.4%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaMissouri
69.1%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaMissouri
69.0%
0.4%
James MadisonLouisianaUtah St
68.4%
<0.1%
James MadisonMissouriSouthern Miss
66.9%
0.2%
Ga SouthernLouisianaUtah St
66.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouth AlabamaUtah St
66.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisiana Tech
66.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaMissouriUtah St
66.1%
0.2%
Ga SouthernMissouriSouthern Miss
66.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechUtah St
62.7%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMissouriUtah St
62.5%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechMissouri
62.3%
0.2%
Ga SouthernLouisiana TechMissouri
61.5%
<0.1%
MissouriSouthern MissUtah St
61.4%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouth AlabamaULM
50.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisiana TechUtah St
46.7%
<0.1%
MissouriSouthern MissULM
41.7%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth AlabamaULM
40.8%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouthern MissULM
33.3%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechULMUtah St
33.3%
<0.1%
LouisianaMissouriULM
32.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMissouriULM
32.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StSouth AlabamaUtah St
31.6%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMissouriULM
27.5%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaULM
25.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonSouthern Miss
21.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonSouth Alabama
20.2%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechULM
20.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMissouriSouth Alabama
18.9%
0.1%
Arkansas StSouthern MissUtah St
18.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernSouth Alabama
15.4%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouthern MissUtah St
15.4%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechSouth Alabama
14.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMissouriSouthern Miss
14.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
14.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaUtah St
14.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
13.8%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaSouth Alabama
13.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaMissouri
12.7%
0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisiana
12.0%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
11.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisiana Tech
11.6%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaLouisiana Tech
11.2%
<0.1%
LouisianaMissouriSouth Alabama
11.2%
0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernSouthern Miss
11.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaSouthern Miss
11.1%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouth AlabamaUtah St
10.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana TechMissouri
9.2%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaSouthern Miss
7.8%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMissouriSouth Alabama
7.1%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMissouriSouthern Miss
6.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouth AlabamaUtah St
6.3%
<0.1%
LouisianaMissouriSouthern Miss
6.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaLouisiana Tech
6.3%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouthern MissUtah St
5.9%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechSouthern Miss
5.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernLouisiana
5.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaLouisiana TechMissouri
4.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana TechUtah St
4.3%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
39.2%
11.2%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonMissouriUtah St
100.0%
0.3%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonMissouriULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMissouriULMUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonULMUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonMissouriULMUtah St
99.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernJames MadisonUtah St
87.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernMissouriUtah St
85.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernJames MadisonMissouri
85.1%
0.3%
Arkansas StJames MadisonMissouriUtah St
83.9%
0.6%
Ga SouthernMissouriSouth AlabamaUtah St
81.3%
0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonSouth AlabamaUtah St
81.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonMissouriSouth Alabama
80.4%
0.3%
James MadisonMissouriSouth AlabamaUtah St
80.1%
0.6%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisianaUtah St
70.5%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisianaMissouri
70.1%
0.3%
James MadisonLouisianaMissouriUtah St
68.6%
0.8%
Ga SouthernLouisianaMissouriUtah St
68.5%
0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonSouthern MissUtah St
67.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMissouriSouthern MissUtah St
66.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonSouthern MissULM
66.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonMissouriSouthern Miss
65.8%
0.2%
James MadisonMissouriSouthern MissUtah St
65.3%
0.4%
Ga SouthernLouisiana TechMissouriUtah St
64.3%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechMissouriUtah St
63.0%
0.4%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisiana TechMissouri
61.8%
0.2%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisiana TechUtah St
56.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisianaULM
50.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMissouriSouth AlabamaULM
45.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernMissouriULM
44.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonMissouriULM
44.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaMissouriULM
43.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMissouriULMUtah St
43.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMissouriSouthern MissULM
39.3%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth AlabamaULMUtah St
38.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaMissouriULMUtah St
36.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMissouriULMUtah St
35.1%
<0.1%
James MadisonMissouriSouth AlabamaULM
35.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaMissouriULM
34.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernULMUtah St
33.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernJames MadisonULM
33.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonSouth AlabamaULM
33.3%
<0.1%
James MadisonMissouriSouthern MissULM
32.1%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaULMUtah St
31.3%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechMissouriULM
30.6%
<0.1%
MissouriSouthern MissULMUtah St
29.4%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouth AlabamaULMUtah St
28.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernJames MadisonLouisiana
27.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonULMUtah St
27.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisiana TechMissouriULM
25.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernLouisiana TechUtah St
25.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouthern MissULMUtah St
25.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisiana TechULM
25.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechULMUtah St
23.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonMissouriSouth Alabama
18.8%
0.5%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisianaLouisiana Tech
18.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StMissouriSouth AlabamaUtah St
18.1%
0.2%
Ga SouthernLouisiana TechSouthern MissUtah St
17.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernSouth AlabamaUtah St
17.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
17.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernMissouriSouth Alabama
16.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisiana TechSouth AlabamaUtah St
16.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonSouth AlabamaUtah St
16.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernJames MadisonSouth Alabama
15.8%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouth AlabamaSouthern MissUtah St
15.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisianaUtah St
15.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernJames MadisonSouthern Miss
15.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisiana TechUtah St
14.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisianaMissouri
14.2%
0.6%
Arkansas StGa SouthernSouthern MissUtah St
13.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisiana TechSouth Alabama
12.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaMissouriUtah St
12.7%
0.2%
Arkansas StJames MadisonSouthern MissUtah St
12.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonMissouriSouthern Miss
12.4%
0.3%
James MadisonLouisianaSouth AlabamaUtah St
12.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernLouisianaMissouri
12.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisiana TechMissouri
12.0%
0.3%
Arkansas StGa SouthernMissouriSouthern Miss
11.8%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaMissouriSouth Alabama
11.6%
0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaMissouriSouth Alabama
11.6%
0.7%
Arkansas StGa SouthernJames MadisonLouisiana Tech
11.3%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechMissouriSouth Alabama
10.6%
0.3%
Arkansas StMissouriSouthern MissUtah St
10.6%
0.1%
James MadisonMissouriSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
10.3%
0.3%
Ga SouthernLouisiana TechMissouriSouth Alabama
10.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana TechMissouriUtah St
10.2%
0.1%
MissouriSouth AlabamaSouthern MissUtah St
9.6%
0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisianaSouth Alabama
9.5%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMissouriSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
9.5%
<0.1%
LouisianaMissouriSouth AlabamaUtah St
9.5%
0.2%
Louisiana TechMissouriSouth AlabamaUtah St
9.2%
0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernLouisiana TechMissouri
9.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechSouth AlabamaUtah St
9.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaLouisiana TechMissouri
8.3%
0.4%
James MadisonLouisianaLouisiana TechUtah St
8.1%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaSouthern MissUtah St
8.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaMissouriSouthern Miss
8.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaMissouriSouthern Miss
7.8%
0.4%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisiana TechSouthern Miss
7.5%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechMissouriSouthern Miss
7.4%
0.2%
James MadisonLouisiana TechSouthern MissUtah St
7.4%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaLouisiana TechMissouri
6.6%
<0.1%
LouisianaLouisiana TechMissouriUtah St
6.5%
0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaLouisiana TechUtah St
6.5%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMissouriSouthern MissUtah St
6.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisianaSouthern Miss
6.3%
<0.1%
LouisianaMissouriSouthern MissUtah St
6.2%
0.1%
Arkansas StGa SouthernLouisianaUtah St
5.8%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaSouthern MissUtah St
5.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisiana TechMissouriSouthern Miss
5.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouth AlabamaSouthern MissUtah St
5.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisianaSouth AlabamaUtah St
2.3%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com