Troy

TroyTrojans

4-4 T4th (2-2) in SBC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.3%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Troy's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

Troy has a 1.3% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Troy's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Troy need to do to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Troy's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds at 22.8%.

What is the biggest game this week for Troy's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds?

Troy's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Louisiana Tech would put its Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds at 3.9%, while a loss would drop them to -.

TroySchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsSam Houston StSHSU
W24-21
29/12
vsAlabama StateALST
W34-17
39/19
@MissouriMIZ
L17-27
49/26
@Utah StUSU
L10-21
610/06
vsSouthern MissUSM
W55-34
710/17
@LouisianaUL
L6-33
810/24
vsULMULM
L14-21
910/29
@James MadisonJMU
W24-21
1011/07
vsLouisiana TechLT
Win prob:33%
1111/14
@South AlabamaUSA
Win prob:43%
1211/21
vsGa SouthernGASO
Win prob:40%
1311/28
@Arkansas StARST
Win prob:40%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
6-2
2.3%
22.8%
5-3
14.4%
5.3%
4-4
34.1%
0%
3-5
35.5%
0%
2-6
13.7%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Troy CCG Opponents

if Troy makes the CCG

JMUJames Madison
92.9%
GASOGa Southern
6.3%
CCUCoastal Car
0.8%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyThis Week's Impact

Game
TroyCCG OddsAway Wins
TroyCCG OddsHome Wins
Thu, Nov 5
James MadisonJMU@Southern MissUSM
1.3%
(+0.0%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7
Old DominionODU@Coastal CarCCU
1.3%
(+0.0%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@Appalachian StAPP
1.3%
(+0.0%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)
ULMULM@Arkansas StARST
1.6%
(+0.3%)		1.3%
(-0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Ga SouthernGASO
1.3%
(+0.0%)		1.3%
(-0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@TroyTROY
0.0%
(-1.3%)		3.9%
(+2.6%)
South AlabamaUSA@LouisianaUL
1.7%
(+0.4%)		1.2%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Troy

TroyTroyMarshallMarshallArkansas StArkansas StateSouth AlabamaSouth Alabama

CCG: 5.5% • Scenario: 1.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Troy

TroyTroy

CCG: 3.9% • Scenario: 33.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Troy CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
22.8%
2.3%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

TroyCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com