TroyTrojans
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Troy's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
Troy has a 18.5% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Troy's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:79% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:10% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:43% | ||
| 10/06 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:80% | ||
| 10/29 | Win prob:32% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.2% | 84.7% |
| 6-2 | 13.9% | 54.0% |
| 5-3 | 25.3% | 21.6% |
| 4-4 | 27.8% | 5.1% |
| 3-5 | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| 2-6 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
93.2%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
80.4%
2.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.5%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.8%
0.1%79.4%
0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%74.5%
0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%56.6%
0.2%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
62.6%
7.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.2%
0.2%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
0.3%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.1%
<0.1%82.3%
0.3%80.8%
0.2%80.6%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%78.6%
0.1%78.6%
0.1%78.3%
0.4%76.6%
0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.7%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%57.2%
0.2%54.6%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%34.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.6%
0.2%20.9%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.3%
0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.7%
0.2%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.1%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.3%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
43.7%
13.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
0.1%97.6%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%89.8%
0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
0.3%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.7%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
0.2%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
0.1%81.6%
0.5%81.0%
0.2%80.8%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.9%
0.1%79.6%
0.3%79.2%
0.1%79.1%
0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.5%
<0.1%77.2%
0.5%77.1%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.5%
0.3%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.8%
0.2%59.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.9%
0.4%55.7%
0.1%55.4%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%24.3%
0.2%23.1%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.1%
<0.1%22.0%
0.3%21.9%
0.2%21.6%
<0.1%21.3%
0.2%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.0%
<0.1%20.7%
0.4%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.4%
0.1%17.7%
0.2%17.6%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.8%
0.2%15.4%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.6%
0.4%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
0.3%11.6%
0.2%11.5%
0.2%11.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
0.2%10.7%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.2%
0.4%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
0.4%8.4%
0.2%8.3%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.0%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26