IllinoisFighting Illini

1-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsEastern IllinoisEIU	W45-0
2	9/07	vsKansasKU	Win prob:41%
3	9/14	vsCentral MichiganCMU	Win prob:78%
4	9/20	@NebraskaNEB	Win prob:33%
5	9/28	@Penn StatePSU	Win prob:8%
7	10/12	vsPurduePUR	Win prob:59%
8	10/19	vsMichiganMICH	Win prob:8%
9	10/26	@OregonORE	Win prob:7%
10	11/02	vsMinnesotaMINN	Win prob:59%
12	11/16	vsMichigan StateMSU	Win prob:71%
13	11/23	@RutgersRUTG	Win prob:48%
14	11/30	vsNorthwesternNU(N)	Win prob:48%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0%	0%
8-1	0.0%	85.3%
7-2	0.5%	15.8%
6-3	4.2%	0.2%
5-4	14.7%	0%
4-5	27.7%	0%
3-6	29.1%	0%
2-7	17.6%	0%
1-8	5.5%	0%
0-9	0.7%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

33.3%

25.0%

25.0%

16.7%

0.0%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
ColoradoCOLO@NebraskaNEB	0.2% (+0.1%)	0.1% (-0.0%)
TexasTEX@MichiganMICH	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Iowa StateISU@IowaIOWA	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Eastern MichiganEMU@WashingtonWASH	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
South DakotaSDAK@WisconsinWIS	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Utah StateUSU@USCUSC	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Michigan StateMSU@MarylandMD	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
KansasKU@IllinoisILL	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (-0.0%)
DukeDUKE@NorthwesternNU	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
AkronAKR@RutgersRUTG	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Penn StatePSU	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Western IllinoisWIU@IndianaIU	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Western MichiganWMU@Ohio StateOSU	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Rhode IslandURI@MinnesotaMINN	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Boise StateBOIS@OregonORE	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Any 1 loss

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

23.1%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

9.4%

<0.1%

3.1%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

12.6%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

46.2%

<0.1%

45.5%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

7.9%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

Any 4 losses

7.6%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

6.3%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com