Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W50-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:89% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:88% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:80% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:63% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:71% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:19% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:85% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:77% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:23% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.7% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 6.8% | 69.3% |
| 7-2 | 22.5% | 7.1% |
| 6-3 | 32.5% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 23.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.2% (+0.3%) | 6.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.2% (+0.3%) | 6.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.9% (-0.1%) | 7.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.8% (-0.2%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.7% (-0.3%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.0% (+0.0%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (-5.4%) | 7.7% (+0.7%) | |
| 7.0% (-0.0%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.0% (+0.1%) | 6.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.8% (-0.2%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.2% (+0.2%) | 7.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.9% (-0.1%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.9% (-0.1%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.9% (-0.1%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.2% (+0.2%) | 6.9% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
70.1%
5.5%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
89.1%
0.1%
87.5%
<0.1%
84.1%
0.1%
83.0%
0.1%
82.2%
0.4%
80.8%
0.2%
74.5%
0.1%
69.1%
1.8%
63.2%
2.4%Any 2 losses
11.4%
19.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%69.7%
0.2%67.8%
0.3%62.3%
0.3%62.1%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.9%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%30.9%
0.1%29.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%26.6%
0.1%24.3%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%15.8%
0.3%14.1%
0.1%13.8%
0.5%13.6%
0.6%12.8%
<0.1%12.2%
0.5%11.2%
0.7%10.9%
0.2%9.1%
0.6%8.6%
0.4%8.3%
1.1%8.1%
0.9%8.0%
0.6%7.0%
0.7%5.3%
0.3%4.7%
1.4%2.3%
7.9%Any 3 losses
7.7%
5.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.6%
0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.2%
0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.1%
0.2%6.7%
0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.5%
1.1%2.2%
0.9%2.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
9.8%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02