Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L17-19 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:83% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:50% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:4% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:33% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:34% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:29% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:41% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:47% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:14% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:29% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 80.0% |
| 7-2 | 0.3% | 18.5% |
| 6-3 | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| 5-4 | 7.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 19.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 28.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 26.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 13.5% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 2.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
88.9%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
14.3%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
4.7%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02