Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
41.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W63-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W42-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:88% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:47% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:98% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:92% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:65% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:82% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:65% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 9.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 29.4% | 88.8% |
| 6-2 | 34.1% | 16.7% |
| 5-3 | 19.6% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 6.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 41.5% (-0.1%) | 41.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 41.7% (+0.1%) | 41.1% (-0.6%) | |
| 41.0% (-0.7%) | 42.9% (+1.3%) | |
| 41.2% (-0.4%) | 41.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 41.6% (+0.0%) | 41.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 40.4% (-1.3%) | 41.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 41.9% (+0.2%) | 41.3% (-0.4%) | |
| 40.8% (-0.8%) | 41.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 41.7% (+0.1%) | 41.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 41.3% (-0.3%) | 41.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 41.9% (+0.3%) | 41.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 40.2% (-1.5%) | 41.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 41.3% (-0.4%) | 46.6% (+5.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
7.9%Any 1 loss
89.5%
25.3%
100.0%
0.9%
100.0%
1.0%
99.5%
0.4%
96.7%
0.7%
95.0%
0.2%
93.1%
4.3%
91.7%
3.4%
90.9%
4.0%
89.4%
1.8%
83.0%
8.7%Any 2 losses
29.4%
32.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%94.3%
0.4%92.8%
0.5%91.9%
0.5%91.8%
0.2%91.2%
0.5%90.9%
0.4%90.8%
0.2%90.0%
0.5%83.9%
1.2%81.8%
1.0%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%38.5%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.7%
<0.1%33.2%
0.3%29.3%
0.4%28.9%
0.1%28.8%
0.2%28.0%
<0.1%25.6%
0.2%25.5%
<0.1%25.3%
0.4%23.2%
0.2%22.6%
0.7%21.3%
0.4%21.1%
1.8%21.0%
1.0%20.7%
<0.1%19.4%
2.2%18.8%
1.8%18.6%
0.7%17.9%
0.9%15.2%
3.7%14.4%
0.2%14.3%
4.8%13.7%
2.0%9.4%
4.7%Any 3 losses
20.2%
6.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%91.0%
<0.1%88.2%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%34.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.7%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.7%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.4%
0.2%23.0%
0.1%22.9%
0.1%22.8%
0.2%22.3%
0.2%21.9%
0.1%21.6%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
0.1%18.8%
0.3%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.7%
0.5%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%16.4%
0.5%15.5%
0.3%14.2%
0.4%13.7%
0.3%13.3%
0.6%13.2%
0.1%12.4%
0.2%12.0%
<0.1%11.5%
0.1%9.5%
0.5%8.1%
0.6%Any 4 losses
16.4%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08