Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W44-21 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:66% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:85% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:84% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:63% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:85% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:30% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:53% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.7% | 99.9% |
| 7-1 | 14.4% | 60.4% |
| 6-2 | 29.4% | 3.8% |
| 5-3 | 30.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 16.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.8% (+0.3%) | 12.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.5% (+0.0%) | 12.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 16.7% (+4.2%) | 4.6% (-7.9%) | |
| 12.7% (+0.2%) | 12.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.5% (+0.0%) | 12.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 12.8% (+0.3%) | 12.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.6% (+0.1%) | 12.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.6% (+0.1%) | 12.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.4% (-0.1%) | 12.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.8% (+0.3%) | 12.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.3% (-0.2%) | 12.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 13.3% (+0.8%) | 12.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 12.3% (-0.2%) | 15.6% (+3.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.8%
1.9%Any 1 loss
62.9%
11.1%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
0.4%
83.2%
1.0%
75.0%
1.2%
62.8%
1.1%
62.3%
0.3%
60.8%
<0.1%
57.4%
0.4%
54.2%
1.7%
52.9%
4.4%Any 2 losses
12.6%
24.8%98.7%
<0.1%84.2%
0.2%78.5%
0.2%78.2%
0.2%72.7%
<0.1%72.1%
0.2%69.3%
0.2%68.3%
<0.1%66.7%
0.2%64.3%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%59.8%
0.3%59.7%
<0.1%52.7%
0.9%52.7%
0.3%50.7%
0.7%13.6%
<0.1%10.3%
0.1%9.5%
0.3%9.4%
0.7%9.3%
0.6%8.8%
0.2%8.3%
0.3%8.1%
0.7%7.8%
0.2%7.6%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.0%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.4%
0.9%5.1%
2.4%4.9%
0.3%4.3%
<0.1%3.5%
0.8%3.3%
1.0%3.1%
1.1%2.9%
2.7%2.9%
2.8%2.9%
0.2%2.5%
0.4%2.1%
<0.1%1.3%
1.0%1.1%
4.0%Any 3 losses
5.8%
7.9%78.6%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.8%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%10.7%
0.1%9.4%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.8%
0.2%3.8%
0.5%3.7%
0.2%3.5%
0.5%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
0.1%3.0%
0.4%2.9%
0.5%2.4%
0.5%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.4%2.0%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%0.7%
0.8%0.6%
0.7%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08