OregonDucks

3-0 T3rd (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

54.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsIdahoIDHO	W24-14
2	9/07	vsBoise StateBOIS	W37-34
3	9/14	@Oregon StateORST	W49-14
5	9/28	@UCLAUCLA	Win prob:93%
6	10/04	vsMichigan StateMSU	Win prob:97%
7	10/12	vsOhio StateOSU	Win prob:52%
8	10/18	@PurduePUR	Win prob:96%
9	10/26	vsIllinoisILL	Win prob:95%
10	11/02	@MichiganMICH	Win prob:51%
11	11/09	vsMarylandMD	Win prob:88%
12	11/16	@WisconsinWIS	Win prob:89%
14	11/30	vsWashingtonWASH	Win prob:84%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	14.3%	100.0%
8-1	36.5%	87.5%
7-2	32.9%	23.9%
6-3	13.0%	0.6%
5-4	2.8%	0%
4-5	0.4%	0%
3-6	0.0%	0%
2-7	0%	0%
1-8	0%	0%
0-9	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

54.3%

19.7%

17.7%

5.1%

3.2%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
IllinoisILL@NebraskaNEB	54.6% (+0.4%)	54.0% (-0.2%)
USCUSC@MichiganMICH	54.2% (+0.1%)	54.2% (-0.0%)
IowaIOWA@MinnesotaMINN	54.4% (+0.2%)	54.0% (-0.2%)
CharlotteCLT@IndianaIU	54.4% (+0.2%)	54.2% (-0.0%)
PurduePUR@Oregon StateORST	53.6% (-0.6%)	54.3% (+0.1%)
NorthwesternNU@WashingtonWASH	55.1% (+0.9%)	54.0% (-0.2%)
MarshallMRSH@Ohio StateOSU	54.6% (+0.4%)	54.2% (-0.0%)
VillanovaVILL@MarylandMD	53.8% (-0.4%)	54.2% (+0.0%)
UCLAUCLA@LSULSU	53.5% (-0.7%)	54.3% (+0.1%)
RutgersRUTG@Virginia TechVT	53.4% (-0.7%)	54.5% (+0.3%)
Kent StateKENT@Penn StatePSU	51.9% (-2.3%)	54.2% (+0.0%)
Michigan StateMSU@Boston CollegeBC	54.2% (-0.0%)	54.2% (+0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

14.3%

Any 1 loss

87.5%

36.5%

97.3%

0.4%

96.9%

1.0%

96.1%

1.8%

96.1%

1.9%

95.5%

0.9%

95.0%

0.6%

93.7%

2.8%

84.8%

13.3%

84.7%

13.8%

Any 2 losses

23.9%

32.9%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

58.8%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

56.5%

0.1%

56.4%

0.1%

55.9%

<0.1%

54.7%

<0.1%

54.4%

0.1%

54.1%

0.3%

54.0%

<0.1%

53.8%

0.1%

52.6%

<0.1%

51.4%

<0.1%

50.0%

0.1%

47.1%

0.1%

44.4%

0.2%

43.5%

<0.1%

42.9%

0.2%

42.4%

0.4%

41.2%

0.3%

38.7%

0.4%

37.2%

0.5%

35.1%

0.4%

34.8%

0.9%

34.5%

1.0%

33.3%

0.5%

32.4%

1.7%

31.8%

1.6%

31.2%

0.7%

31.0%

0.8%

29.3%

1.7%

28.5%

1.8%

20.3%

2.7%

18.5%

2.6%

13.0%

12.7%

Any 3 losses

1.2%

5.9%

15.0%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

4.7%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

3.7%

<0.1%

3.5%

0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.2%

<0.1%

2.8%

<0.1%

2.4%

0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

1.9%

0.2%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.8%

0.1%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.6%

0.1%

1.4%

0.4%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.2%

0.3%

1.1%

0.2%

0.9%

0.1%

0.9%

0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

1.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.6%

0.9%

0.5%

0.2%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com