Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-9 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-24 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:84% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:74% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:35% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:64% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:72% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:55% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:29% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:88% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:16% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 2.6% | 88.3% |
| 7-2 | 11.9% | 27.7% |
| 6-3 | 25.5% | 0.4% |
| 5-4 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 20.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 7.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9% (-0.0%) | 5.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.4% (+0.4%) | 5.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.1% (+0.2%) | 5.7% (-0.2%) | |
| 6.2% (+0.2%) | 5.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.9% (-0.1%) | 5.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (-4.3%) | 6.7% (+0.8%) | |
| 6.4% (+0.4%) | 5.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.1% (+0.1%) | 5.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.1% (+0.1%) | 5.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.9% (-0.1%) | 6.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.0% (+1.1%) | 5.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.9% (+0.0%) | 5.9% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
88.2%
2.6%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.2%
0.1%
98.8%
<0.1%
97.1%
<0.1%
94.3%
0.2%
92.7%
<0.1%
91.4%
0.5%
84.5%
1.1%
83.6%
0.4%Any 2 losses
27.7%
11.9%100.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.3%
0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%51.6%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
0.2%48.0%
<0.1%46.9%
0.3%45.4%
0.1%43.3%
0.1%43.1%
<0.1%42.4%
0.2%40.6%
0.1%39.9%
0.4%36.0%
0.4%36.0%
0.1%33.7%
0.2%33.2%
0.7%30.6%
0.5%28.9%
1.0%28.8%
0.2%28.3%
0.4%20.8%
1.1%17.1%
2.8%13.9%
2.2%Any 3 losses
1.2%
4.3%33.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.5%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.6%0.5%
0.4%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15