Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
35.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:57% | |
| 5 | 9/26 | Win prob:44% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:71% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:49% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:52% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 11.4% | 99.2% |
| 7-2 | 24.3% | 74.6% |
| 6-3 | 28.7% | 12.6% |
| 5-4 | 20.6% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 35.6% (+0.2%) | 35.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 34.7% (-0.7%) | 35.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 35.2% (-0.2%) | 35.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 35.3% (-0.1%) | 35.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 35.4% (-0.1%) | 35.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 35.5% (+0.1%) | 35.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 35.6% (+0.1%) | 35.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 34.3% (-1.1%) | 35.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 35.0% (-0.4%) | 35.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 35.7% (+0.2%) | 35.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 35.1% (-0.4%) | 35.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 35.2% (-0.3%) | 35.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 35.4% (-0.0%) | 35.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 35.4% (-0.1%) | 35.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 35.8% (+0.3%) | 35.2% (-0.2%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.2%Any 1 loss
99.3%
6.8%
100.0%
0.9%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.2%
99.8%
0.4%
99.7%
0.4%
99.5%
1.1%
99.5%
1.2%
99.5%
0.4%
99.0%
0.2%
98.6%
0.5%
98.6%
1.5%Any 2 losses
81.6%
17.8%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%99.8%
0.4%99.5%
0.4%99.4%
0.9%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.3%99.1%
0.8%98.7%
0.3%98.6%
1.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.3%
0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.8%
0.2%97.6%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%89.6%
0.1%89.4%
<0.1%89.4%
<0.1%88.2%
0.2%86.5%
0.1%84.9%
0.4%84.5%
0.2%84.0%
0.1%81.5%
0.2%81.1%
0.3%80.5%
0.4%80.5%
<0.1%80.3%
0.2%79.7%
<0.1%78.9%
0.2%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
0.1%76.9%
0.5%75.9%
0.4%75.7%
0.4%75.6%
0.4%75.0%
0.3%74.3%
0.4%73.1%
1.1%72.8%
0.2%71.1%
0.5%70.7%
0.6%70.5%
0.4%69.3%
<0.1%69.1%
1.6%68.2%
1.3%67.6%
0.4%62.2%
0.6%Any 3 losses
39.6%
26.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%94.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.3%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.0%
0.2%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.3%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.0%
0.2%83.2%
0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
0.1%81.6%
0.2%81.6%
<0.1%81.5%
0.2%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.7%
0.1%80.5%
<0.1%80.4%
0.3%80.2%
0.3%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.3%79.5%
<0.1%79.1%
0.3%79.0%
0.3%78.7%
0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.2%
0.1%78.1%
0.8%77.8%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%77.2%
0.4%76.5%
0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.1%
0.2%75.9%
<0.1%75.1%
0.4%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.9%
0.2%72.2%
0.3%72.2%
1.1%71.7%
<0.1%71.6%
0.4%71.1%
0.2%70.1%
0.1%69.5%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.6%
1.0%65.2%
0.3%63.3%
0.4%61.1%
<0.1%59.4%
0.5%52.5%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.5%
0.2%21.3%
<0.1%20.2%
0.1%19.8%
<0.1%18.2%
0.4%18.2%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
<0.1%17.5%
0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.1%
0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.5%
0.2%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.2%
0.1%15.1%
0.1%15.1%
0.3%15.0%
0.3%14.7%
0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.4%
0.1%14.1%
<0.1%14.0%
0.2%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
0.3%12.2%
0.1%12.1%
0.5%11.8%
0.4%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
0.4%11.3%
0.5%11.2%
<0.1%11.0%
0.2%11.0%
0.1%10.7%
0.5%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
1.4%10.4%
0.1%10.2%
0.2%10.2%
<0.1%10.2%
0.1%9.9%
0.2%9.9%
0.5%9.6%
0.2%9.2%
0.2%9.1%
0.3%9.1%
0.2%9.1%
0.3%9.0%
0.2%8.9%
0.2%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.5%
0.6%8.3%
0.4%8.2%
0.2%8.0%
<0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.4%
0.7%7.0%
0.6%6.9%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
17.7%
13.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%67.0%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.1%
<0.1%22.0%
0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.2%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.4%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
0.2%17.9%
<0.1%17.7%
0.2%17.2%
<0.1%17.2%
0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.5%
0.2%15.3%
<0.1%15.1%
<0.1%15.1%
0.3%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
0.2%14.6%
<0.1%14.5%
0.3%14.5%
0.3%14.4%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
0.2%14.0%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.3%
0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.6%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
0.4%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
0.3%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
1.0%10.2%
0.2%10.1%
0.4%10.1%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.4%9.8%
0.3%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.4%8.9%
0.4%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
0.2%8.7%
0.4%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%6.8%
0.5%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
0.2%4.9%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02