Ball StateCardinals
1-1 T2nd (0-0) in MAC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.3%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Ball State's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Ball State has a 1.3% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Ball State's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L3-56 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W41-17 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:18% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:53% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:13% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:3% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:47% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:22% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/17 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:61% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.6% | 77.6% |
| 6-2 | 4.1% | 18.6% |
| 5-3 | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 27.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 29.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 17.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.2% (-0.1%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.2% (-0.1%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.2% (-0.1%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.3% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | ||
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
83.1%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
96.0%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%
88.1%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%83.6%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.2%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%
67.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
39.9%
1.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.1%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%86.0%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%80.6%
0.1%80.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%31.7%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.7%
<0.1%30.1%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.5%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.7%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.0%
0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%11.2%
<0.1%9.1%
0.2%7.4%
<0.1%7.2%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17