Ball St

Ball StateCardinals

0-0 T1st (0-0) in MAC

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is Ball State's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?

Ball State has a 2.7% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Ball State's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Ball StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/05
@Ohio StOSU
Win prob:1%
9/12
vsStony BrookSTBK
Win prob:90%
9/19
@LibertyLIB
Win prob:24%
9/26
@KentKENT
Win prob:46%
10/03
vsToledoTOL
Win prob:24%
10/10
@NorthwesternNU
Win prob:11%
10/17
@Bowling GreenBGSU
Win prob:36%
10/24
vsSacramento StSAC
Win prob:40%
11/04
@MassachusettsMASS
Win prob:48%
11/11
vsBuffaloBUF
Win prob:41%
11/17
@OhioOHIO
Win prob:24%
11/28
vsC MichiganCMU
Win prob:45%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Ball StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.0%
100.0%
7-1
0.5%
95.9%
6-2
3.0%
56.7%
5-3
10.5%
5.2%
4-4
22.0%
0%
3-5
28.4%
0%
2-6
23.1%
0%
1-7
10.5%
0%
0-8
2.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Ball St CCG Opponents

if Ball St makes the CCG

ToledoToledo
32.0%
Western MichiganW Michigan
27.6%
Miami (OH)Miami OH
18.0%
OhioOhio
14.0%
Sacramento StateSacramento St
8.3%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Ball StThis Week's Impact

Game
Ball StCCG OddsAway
Ball StCCG OddsHome
Sacramento StSAC@E MichiganEMU
2.7%
(-0.0%)		2.8%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Ball St

Sacramento StSacramento State

CCG: 5.0% • Scenario: 57.9%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Ball St

Sacramento StSacramento State

CCG: 5.0% • Scenario: 57.9%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Ball StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Ball St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Ohio St
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
KentOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
OhioOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ohio StSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
C MichiganOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
88.8%
0.2%
C MichiganNorthwesternOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloLibertyOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
C MichiganKentNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhioToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyNorthwesternOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenOhio StSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyOhioOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNorthwesternOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
KentNorthwesternOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenKentOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloOhio StSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMassachusettsOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloLibertyOhio
100.0%
<0.1%
C MichiganKentOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhio StSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenNorthwesternToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyOhio StToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
MassachusettsOhio StSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyNorthwesternToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloOhioOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
C MichiganLibertyOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenLibertyNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMassachusettsOhio
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyNorthwesternOhio
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhio StStony Brook
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloC MichiganNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloKentOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNorthwesternToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenNorthwesternOhio St
94.7%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhioOhio St
94.4%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhio StToledo
93.8%
<0.1%
BuffaloNorthwesternOhio St
90.9%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenC MichiganOhio St
75.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenLibertyOhio St
75.0%
<0.1%
MassachusettsOhioOhio St
71.4%
<0.1%
BuffaloC MichiganOhio St
66.7%
<0.1%
Ohio StSacramento StToledo
66.7%
<0.1%
KentOhio StSacramento St
66.7%
<0.1%
OhioOhio StToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMassachusettsOhio St
50.0%
<0.1%
MassachusettsOhio StToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenOhioOhio St
50.0%
<0.1%
C MichiganOhio StToledo
33.3%
<0.1%
OhioOhio StSacramento St
33.3%
<0.1%
KentOhio StToledo
20.0%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
66.2%
1.1%
NorthwesternOhio StSacramento StStony Brook
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhioOhio StStony Brook
100.0%
<0.1%
KentLibertyOhioOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyNorthwesternOhio StSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloNorthwesternOhio StStony Brook
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloKentLibertyOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
OhioOhio StStony BrookToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternSacramento StStony BrookToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenKentOhio StStony Brook
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloLibertyMassachusettsOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhioSacramento StStony Brook
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloLibertyMassachusettsNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenNorthwesternOhio StStony Brook
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyOhio StStony BrookToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloKentNorthwesternToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
KentNorthwesternOhio StStony Brook
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenLibertyNorthwesternSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloLibertyNorthwesternOhio
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenLibertyOhio StStony Brook
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloLibertyNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyMassachusettsNorthwesternOhio
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenC MichiganLibertyNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
KentLibertyOhio StStony Brook
100.0%
<0.1%
LibertyNorthwesternOhio StToledo
96.7%
<0.1%
C MichiganLibertyNorthwesternOhio St
96.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenLibertyNorthwesternOhio St
96.2%
<0.1%
LibertyMassachusettsNorthwesternOhio St
95.8%
<0.1%
LibertyNorthwesternOhioOhio St
95.2%
<0.1%
KentLibertyNorthwesternOhio St
95.0%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNorthwesternOhioOhio St
94.4%
<0.1%
BuffaloLibertyNorthwesternOhio St
92.3%
<0.1%
C MichiganKentNorthwesternOhio St
90.9%
<0.1%
KentLibertyOhio StToledo
85.7%
<0.1%
LibertyMassachusettsOhioOhio St
85.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenLibertyOhio StSacramento St
83.3%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenNorthwesternOhio StSacramento St
82.3%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhio StStony BrookToledo
80.0%
<0.1%
C MichiganLibertyOhio StSacramento St
80.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloNorthwesternOhio StSacramento St
76.5%
<0.1%
C MichiganLibertyMassachusettsOhio St
75.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMassachusettsNorthwesternOhio St
72.7%
<0.1%
KentNorthwesternOhioOhio St
70.4%
<0.1%
LibertyMassachusettsOhio StSacramento St
66.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloC MichiganLibertyOhio St
66.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloLibertyOhio StSacramento St
66.7%
<0.1%
LibertyOhioOhio StToledo
65.4%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenMassachusettsNorthwesternOhio St
64.7%
<0.1%
C MichiganNorthwesternOhio StSacramento St
63.6%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenKentNorthwesternOhio St
62.5%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloNorthwesternOhio St
62.5%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhioOhio StSacramento St
61.5%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNorthwesternOhio StSacramento St
61.5%
<0.1%
LibertyOhio StSacramento StToledo
60.0%
<0.1%
C MichiganNorthwesternOhioOhio St
58.8%
<0.1%
C MichiganLibertyOhio StToledo
57.1%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNorthwesternOhio StToledo
57.1%
<0.1%
LibertyOhioOhio StSacramento St
54.5%
<0.1%
C MichiganMassachusettsNorthwesternOhio St
54.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloKentNorthwesternOhio St
54.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloNorthwesternOhioOhio St
52.9%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenNorthwesternOhioOhio St
52.6%
<0.1%
BuffaloC MichiganLibertyNorthwestern
50.0%
<0.1%
KentNorthwesternOhio StSacramento St
50.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenNorthwesternOhio StToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
Ohio StSacramento StStony BrookToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenLibertyMassachusettsOhio St
50.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenLibertyOhio StToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenC MichiganLibertyOhio St
50.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenKentLibertyOhio St
50.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloNorthwesternToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
KentLibertyMassachusettsOhio St
50.0%
<0.1%
C MichiganKentLibertyOhio St
50.0%
<0.1%
KentLibertyOhio StSacramento St
50.0%
<0.1%
C MichiganNorthwesternOhio StToledo
47.6%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhio StSacramento StToledo
46.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloC MichiganNorthwesternOhio St
46.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenC MichiganNorthwesternOhio St
45.5%
<0.1%
KentNorthwesternOhio StToledo
42.9%
<0.1%
BuffaloLibertyOhioOhio St
42.9%
<0.1%
BuffaloLibertyOhio StToledo
42.9%
<0.1%
BuffaloNorthwesternOhio StToledo
41.9%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhioOhio StToledo
40.4%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenLibertyOhioOhio St
40.0%
<0.1%
C MichiganLibertyOhioOhio St
38.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloKentOhio StSacramento St
33.3%
<0.1%
LibertyMassachusettsOhio StToledo
30.0%
<0.1%
KentMassachusettsNorthwesternOhio St
28.6%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloLibertyOhio St
28.6%
<0.1%
MassachusettsOhioOhio StToledo
28.6%
<0.1%
BuffaloC MichiganOhioOhio St
25.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloKentOhioOhio St
25.0%
<0.1%
C MichiganOhio StSacramento StToledo
14.3%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloOhioOhio St
14.3%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com