TulsaGolden Hurricane

2-0 T3rd (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

12.8%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Tulsa's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

Tulsa has a 12.8% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Tulsa's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
1	9/05	vsOklahoma StateOKST	W24-10
2	9/12	@Sam HoustonSHSU	W23-17
3	9/19	vsEast Texas A&METAM	Win prob:90%
4	9/26	@ArkansasARK	Win prob:36%
5	10/01	vsNorth TexasUNT	Win prob:44%
6	10/10	@NavyNAVY	Win prob:48%
7	10/17	@RiceRICE	Win prob:77%
8	10/23	vsArmyARMY	Win prob:56%
10	11/07	@TulaneTULN	Win prob:33%
11	11/14	vsFlorida AtlanticFAU	Win prob:80%
12	11/21	vsCharlotteCLT	Win prob:90%
13	11/28	@UTSAUTSA	Win prob:43%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	1.0%	100.0%
7-1	6.8%	91.5%
6-2	19.6%	28.2%
5-3	29.9%	0.3%
4-4	25.9%	0%
3-5	12.8%	0%
2-6	3.4%	0%
1-7	0.4%	0%
0-8	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

32.7%

16.8%

15.2%

13.8%

7.3%

6.4%

3.0%

2.3%

1.8%

0.6%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19
	North TexasUNT@Texas StateTXST	12.8% (+0.0%)	12.8% (-0.0%)
	TulaneTULN@Kansas StateKSU	12.8% (+0.0%)	12.8% (+0.0%)
	TempleTEM@ToledoTOL	12.9% (+0.1%)	12.8% (-0.0%)
	CharlotteCLT@App StateAPP	12.9% (+0.1%)	12.8% (-0.0%)
	East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU	12.8% (-0.0%)	12.8% (+0.0%)
	Florida InternationalFIU@Florida AtlanticFAU	12.8% (+0.0%)	12.8% (-0.0%)
	Delaware StateDSU@South FloridaUSF	12.8% (+0.0%)	12.8% (+0.0%)
	UT MartinUTM@MemphisMEM	12.8% (+0.0%)	12.8% (+0.0%)
	Western MichiganWMU@RiceRICE	12.8% (+0.0%)	12.7% (-0.1%)
	East Texas A&METAM@TulsaTLSA	12.8% (+0.0%)	12.8% (+0.0%)
	UABUAB@LouisianaUL	12.9% (+0.1%)	12.8% (-0.0%)
	UTSAUTSA@TexasTEX	13.0% (+0.2%)	12.8% (+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.3%

Any 1 loss

93.3%

2.8%

100.0%

0.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

95.8%

<0.1%

94.4%

0.3%

94.0%

0.1%

94.0%

<0.1%

93.5%

0.2%

92.9%

0.4%

90.8%

0.6%

86.0%

0.4%

Any 2 losses

53.6%

10.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

96.1%

<0.1%

96.0%

<0.1%

95.2%

0.2%

94.4%

0.6%

93.8%

0.1%

93.8%

<0.1%

93.7%

<0.1%

93.1%

0.4%

92.3%

0.7%

91.5%

<0.1%

91.2%

<0.1%

90.7%

<0.1%

90.4%

1.1%

87.1%

0.7%

86.8%

<0.1%

85.2%

<0.1%

64.2%

<0.1%

59.8%

<0.1%

50.2%

<0.1%

48.1%

<0.1%

47.1%

0.1%

44.0%

<0.1%

40.3%

<0.1%

39.2%

<0.1%

39.1%

<0.1%

39.0%

0.1%

38.7%

0.1%

37.1%

<0.1%

35.5%

0.2%

34.4%

<0.1%

34.4%

0.3%

34.0%

0.4%

32.5%

<0.1%

31.9%

0.1%

31.6%

0.1%

31.0%

0.3%

30.5%

0.2%

30.0%

0.7%

28.8%

0.4%

24.4%

0.8%

23.7%

0.3%

23.7%

0.5%

22.0%

0.5%

18.6%

0.8%

Any 3 losses

29.0%

13.0%

94.7%

<0.1%

94.5%

<0.1%

94.1%

<0.1%

93.4%

<0.1%

90.6%

<0.1%

90.4%

<0.1%

90.2%

0.1%

87.5%

<0.1%

62.1%

<0.1%

52.1%

<0.1%

51.3%

<0.1%

47.1%

<0.1%

46.3%

<0.1%

45.9%

<0.1%

45.5%

<0.1%

45.0%

0.2%

44.4%

<0.1%

44.2%

0.1%

43.8%

<0.1%

43.6%

<0.1%

41.6%

0.2%

40.4%

<0.1%

39.8%

<0.1%

37.5%

0.1%

37.3%

0.1%

37.0%

<0.1%

36.8%

0.2%

36.0%

<0.1%

35.7%

<0.1%

35.3%

<0.1%

35.3%

<0.1%

35.2%

0.2%

34.7%

<0.1%

34.6%

0.5%

33.9%

0.8%

33.8%

<0.1%

33.8%

0.3%

33.3%

0.1%

33.1%

<0.1%

32.8%

<0.1%

32.2%

<0.1%

32.2%

<0.1%

32.0%

0.3%

30.8%

<0.1%

30.6%

<0.1%

30.3%

0.2%

29.9%

0.6%

29.9%

<0.1%

29.6%

1.2%

29.4%

<0.1%

27.6%

<0.1%

27.3%

0.7%

25.9%

<0.1%

25.6%

<0.1%

24.2%

1.5%

23.6%

0.9%

23.3%

<0.1%

22.7%

0.5%

22.5%

0.9%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.6%

<0.1%

19.5%

<0.1%

18.1%

1.4%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

0.9%

<0.1%

0.9%

<0.1%

0.7%

<0.1%

0.7%

<0.1%

0.6%

0.1%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.6%

0.1%

0.5%

<0.1%

Any 4 losses

11.0%

3.3%

61.5%

<0.1%

52.9%

<0.1%

48.5%

<0.1%

41.7%

<0.1%

39.1%

<0.1%

38.1%

<0.1%

37.2%

<0.1%

36.8%

<0.1%

34.1%

<0.1%

34.1%

<0.1%

33.9%

<0.1%

33.5%

<0.1%

33.0%

<0.1%

32.0%

<0.1%

31.8%

<0.1%

31.3%

<0.1%

31.1%

<0.1%

30.3%

0.1%

29.5%

<0.1%

28.8%

<0.1%

27.5%

<0.1%

26.4%

<0.1%

26.3%

<0.1%

26.1%

<0.1%

22.6%

0.2%

21.6%

0.1%

20.5%

<0.1%

17.5%

0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.0%

<0.1%

0.9%

<0.1%

0.9%

<0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

<0.1%

0.7%

<0.1%

0.7%

0.4%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.6%

0.2%

0.6%

0.2%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.5%

<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com