Bowling Green

Bowling GreenFalcons

0-0 T1st (0-0) in MAC

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

5.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is Bowling Green's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?

Bowling Green has a 5.9% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Bowling Green's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Bowling GreenSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/05
vsTarleton StateTAR
Win prob:90%
9/12
@NebraskaNEB
Win prob:7%
9/19
@Iowa StISU
Win prob:19%
9/26
vsSouth FloridaUSF
Win prob:27%
10/03
@Miami OHM-OH
Win prob:29%
10/10
vsSacramento StSAC
Win prob:48%
10/17
vsBall StBALL
Win prob:64%
10/24
@BuffaloBUF
Win prob:38%
10/31
@W MichiganWMU
Win prob:24%
11/10
vsKentKENT
Win prob:65%
11/20
@ToledoTOL
Win prob:22%
11/28
vsMassachusettsMASS
Win prob:67%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Bowling GreenRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.1%
100.0%
7-1
1.1%
98.9%
6-2
5.9%
63.8%
5-3
17.1%
6.4%
4-4
28.0%
0.0%
3-5
27.2%
0%
2-6
15.5%
0%
1-7
4.6%
0%
0-8
0.5%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Bowling Green CCG Opponents

if Bowling Green makes the CCG

ToledoToledo
35.5%
Western MichiganW Michigan
26.3%
Miami (OH)Miami OH
16.7%
OhioOhio
12.9%
Sacramento StateSacramento St
8.6%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Bowling GreenThis Week's Impact

Game
Bowling GreenCCG OddsAway
Bowling GreenCCG OddsHome
Sacramento StSAC@E MichiganEMU
5.9%
(+0.0%)		5.9%
(-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Bowling Green

Sacramento StSacramento State

CCG: 5.0% • Scenario: 57.9%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Bowling GreenLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Bowling Green CCG Probability
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
Nebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
South Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Buffalo
100.0%
<0.1%
Toledo
100.0%
<0.1%
W Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa St
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
94.5%
0.1%
NebraskaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
KentNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKent
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
MassachusettsMiami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
Sacramento StW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa St
100.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraska
87.5%
<0.1%
ToledoW Michigan
66.7%
<0.1%
Miami OHToledo
57.1%
<0.1%
Sacramento StToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHW Michigan
33.3%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
84.6%
0.8%
Iowa StKentMiami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaSacramento StSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaSouth FloridaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMassachusettsNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaSacramento StTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StSouth FloridaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaSouth FloridaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StSouth FloridaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StMiami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
MassachusettsMiami OHNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNebraskaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StKent
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StMassachusettsNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
KentNebraskaSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StSacramento StW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StSacramento StSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
KentSouth FloridaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StSouth FloridaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentMassachusetts
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloKentTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StSouth FloridaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StMiami OHSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
KentNebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StMassachusetts
100.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTarleton StateW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaTarleton StateW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StKentNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraskaSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaToledo
97.6%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaW Michigan
95.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaSacramento St
95.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaToledo
94.4%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNebraskaW Michigan
85.7%
<0.1%
Ball StMiami OHNebraska
85.7%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraskaToledo
83.3%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaSacramento St
80.0%
<0.1%
KentNebraskaToledo
80.0%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraskaW Michigan
80.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloSouth FloridaToledo
75.0%
<0.1%
Sacramento StSouth FloridaToledo
75.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StSacramento St
75.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloKentNebraska
75.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHSouth Florida
75.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHW Michigan
70.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaSacramento StToledo
69.2%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StW Michigan
66.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloSouth FloridaW Michigan
66.7%
<0.1%
South FloridaToledoW Michigan
66.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHNebraska
62.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaW Michigan
60.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaToledo
57.5%
<0.1%
NebraskaSacramento StW Michigan
55.6%
<0.1%
NebraskaToledoW Michigan
54.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StToledo
54.5%
<0.1%
Iowa StToledoW Michigan
54.5%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHSacramento St
50.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StMiami OH
50.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StSacramento StToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
KentSouth FloridaW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
KentSacramento StSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
KentMiami OHNebraska
50.0%
<0.1%
Sacramento StSouth FloridaW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloSacramento StSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaW Michigan
45.5%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHToledo
38.5%
<0.1%
Miami OHSouth FloridaToledo
33.3%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloToledo
33.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsW Michigan
33.3%
<0.1%
KentNebraskaW Michigan
25.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHSacramento StToledo
20.0%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
56.9%
3.3%
Iowa StMiami OHNebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsNebraskaSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsNebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaSouth FloridaTarleton StateToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaSacramento StSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentNebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StKentNebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StNebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHTarleton StateToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHNebraskaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaTarleton StateW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StMassachusettsNebraskaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraskaSacramento StSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StKentNebraskaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentMassachusettsNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentTarleton StateW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaSouth FloridaTarleton StateW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraskaTarleton StateW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
KentMiami OHSouth FloridaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StSouth FloridaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StMiami OHSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaSacramento StTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StSacramento StSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StSacramento StSouth FloridaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StMassachusettsNebraskaSacramento St
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentMassachusettsTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StNebraskaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentSouth FloridaW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StSouth FloridaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaTarleton StateToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaTarleton StateW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHTarleton StateW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentSouth FloridaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraskaSouth FloridaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentMiami OHTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StKentSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StTarleton StateToledoW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaSacramento StSouth FloridaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaSouth FloridaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloSouth FloridaTarleton StateW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentSacramento StW Michigan
100.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHNebraskaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaSouth FloridaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloSouth FloridaToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
KentMiami OHNebraskaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StMassachusettsSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StNebraskaTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloIowa StTarleton State
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraskaTarleton StateToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaSouth FloridaW Michigan
99.2%
0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaSouth FloridaToledo
97.1%
0.1%
BuffaloIowa StNebraskaSouth Florida
96.8%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StMassachusettsNebraska
93.3%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloIowa StNebraska
91.3%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloNebraskaSouth Florida
90.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsMiami OHNebraska
88.2%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StSouth FloridaW Michigan
88.2%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentNebraskaSacramento St
87.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StKentNebraska
87.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StMiami OHSouth Florida
86.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentNebraskaW Michigan
85.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsNebraskaW Michigan
85.2%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNebraskaSacramento StSouth Florida
83.3%
<0.1%
KentNebraskaSouth FloridaW Michigan
83.3%
<0.1%
MassachusettsMiami OHNebraskaSouth Florida
83.3%
<0.1%
NebraskaSacramento StSouth FloridaW Michigan
82.9%
<0.1%
Ball StMiami OHNebraskaSouth Florida
81.3%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNebraskaSouth FloridaW Michigan
80.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StNebraskaW Michigan
78.3%
<0.1%
KentNebraskaSouth FloridaToledo
77.8%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StSouth FloridaW Michigan
77.8%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StNebraskaSacramento St
76.2%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StNebraskaToledo
75.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloKentNebraskaSouth Florida
75.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StSacramento StSouth Florida
75.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsSouth FloridaW Michigan
75.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StKentSouth Florida
75.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsSacramento StSouth Florida
75.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentMiami OHNebraska
73.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StSacramento StSouth FloridaW Michigan
72.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaSouth FloridaToledo
72.1%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsMiami OHSouth Florida
71.4%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StNebraskaW Michigan
71.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaSacramento StW Michigan
70.4%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaSouth FloridaW Michigan
70.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMassachusettsNebraskaSouth Florida
69.2%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StMiami OHNebraska
68.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHNebraskaSacramento St
67.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaTarleton StateToledo
66.7%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StMassachusettsNebraska
66.7%
<0.1%
NebraskaSacramento StSouth FloridaToledo
65.9%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraskaSouth FloridaW Michigan
65.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StSouth FloridaToledo
64.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaSacramento StSouth Florida
63.6%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaSacramento StSouth Florida
63.6%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentNebraskaToledo
62.5%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StSouth FloridaToledo
62.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StNebraskaToledo
62.3%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StMiami OHNebraska
62.0%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraskaSouth FloridaToledo
61.9%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaSouth FloridaW Michigan
61.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsSouth FloridaToledo
60.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsNebraskaToledo
59.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHNebraskaW Michigan
56.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHSouth FloridaW Michigan
56.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHNebraskaSouth Florida
54.3%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaSouth FloridaToledo
53.7%
<0.1%
NebraskaSouth FloridaToledoW Michigan
53.7%
0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaSacramento StToledo
52.4%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHNebraskaToledo
51.6%
0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaToledoW Michigan
50.6%
0.2%
KentNebraskaSacramento StSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StSouth FloridaToledoW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaTarleton StateW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
MassachusettsSacramento StSouth FloridaW Michigan
50.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentSacramento StSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
Ball StMassachusettsNebraskaToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
KentMiami OHNebraskaSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloSacramento StSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StMiami OHTarleton State
50.0%
<0.1%
Sacramento StSouth FloridaTarleton StateToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHSouth FloridaToledo
46.2%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNebraskaSouth FloridaToledo
45.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StNebraskaSacramento St
44.4%
<0.1%
Iowa StSacramento StSouth FloridaToledo
40.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaTarleton StateToledoW Michigan
40.0%
<0.1%
KentMiami OHSouth FloridaToledo
33.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHSacramento StSouth Florida
33.3%
<0.1%
MassachusettsMiami OHNebraskaSacramento St
33.3%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StMiami OHSacramento St
33.3%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraskaSacramento StW Michigan
25.0%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloIowa StToledo
25.0%
<0.1%
Ball StMiami OHNebraskaSacramento St
25.0%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StSacramento StW Michigan
25.0%
<0.1%
KentMiami OHSouth FloridaW Michigan
25.0%
<0.1%
KentSouth FloridaToledoW Michigan
25.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKentMiami OHToledo
22.2%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StMiami OHToledo
20.0%
<0.1%
KentNebraskaSacramento StW Michigan
20.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHSouth FloridaToledo
20.0%
<0.1%
Ball StMiami OHNebraskaToledo
16.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloSouth FloridaToledoW Michigan
16.7%
<0.1%
KentMiami OHNebraskaW Michigan
16.7%
<0.1%
Ball StIowa StSacramento StToledo
16.7%
<0.1%
Miami OHSacramento StSouth FloridaToledo
16.7%
<0.1%
KentNebraskaSacramento StToledo
16.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaSacramento StToledo
15.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHSouth FloridaW Michigan
14.3%
<0.1%
KentMiami OHNebraskaSacramento St
14.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMassachusettsMiami OHW Michigan
14.3%
<0.1%
BuffaloMassachusettsNebraskaW Michigan
12.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StMiami OHW Michigan
12.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StMassachusettsW Michigan
12.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StSacramento StToledo
11.1%
<0.1%
MassachusettsNebraskaToledoW Michigan
9.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StMiami OHToledo
9.5%
<0.1%
KentNebraskaToledoW Michigan
9.5%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHSacramento StToledo
8.3%
<0.1%
Ball StNebraskaSacramento StToledo
8.3%
<0.1%
MassachusettsMiami OHNebraskaW Michigan
8.3%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaSacramento StToledo
6.9%
<0.1%
BuffaloMassachusettsNebraskaToledo
6.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloNebraskaToledoW Michigan
6.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHToledoW Michigan
5.9%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHNebraskaSacramento St
5.9%
<0.1%
BuffaloIowa StToledoW Michigan
3.9%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaSacramento StW Michigan
3.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHNebraskaToledo
2.4%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHNebraskaW Michigan
2.4%
<0.1%
NebraskaSacramento StToledoW Michigan
2.2%
<0.1%
Miami OHNebraskaToledoW Michigan
1.2%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com