Miami (OH)RedHawks
1-1 T2nd (0-0) in MAC
Data from 2026-09-19
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.1%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Miami (OH)'s probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Miami (OH) has a 12.1% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Miami (OH)'s Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L14-59 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W45-7 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:3% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:58% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:82% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:43% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:74% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:68% | |
| 10 | 11/03 | Win prob:70% | |
| 11 | 11/10 | Win prob:55% | |
| 12 | 11/17 | Win prob:75% | |
| 13 | 11/24 | Win prob:12% |
Data from 2026-09-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 7.0% | 81.5% |
| 6-2 | 21.7% | 25.3% |
| 5-3 | 31.3% | 0.8% |
| 4-4 | 24.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 11.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 3.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-19
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-19
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 12.2% (+0.1%) | 12.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 12.1% (+0.0%) | 12.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 12.5% (+0.4%) | 12.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 12.1% (-0.0%) | 12.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 12.1% (+0.0%) | 12.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 12.1% (+0.0%) | 12.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 12.1% (-0.0%) | 12.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 11.6% (-0.5%) | 12.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 12.1% (-0.0%) | 12.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 12.0% (-0.1%) | 12.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 12.1% (+0.0%) | 12.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 12.1% (+0.0%) | 12.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 12.1% (+0.0%) | 11.9% (-0.1%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
94.9%
0.5%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.1%
<0.1%
93.4%
<0.1%
92.6%
<0.1%
86.6%
<0.1%
85.9%
<0.1%
75.9%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
77.5%
4.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.8%
0.1%96.2%
0.1%96.1%
0.2%95.0%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%92.7%
0.5%89.1%
0.3%88.3%
0.1%86.8%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.6%
2.5%74.4%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%35.8%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.1%
<0.1%26.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%16.7%
0.1%10.2%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
35.1%
15.5%97.5%
0.1%97.5%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%93.1%
0.3%89.2%
0.1%88.7%
0.2%87.5%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.6%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.1%
1.8%71.3%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.3%
<0.1%68.7%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.0%
0.2%56.5%
<0.1%56.0%
0.2%55.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.4%
0.2%44.4%
<0.1%41.8%
0.1%41.7%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%38.9%
0.1%38.5%
0.2%38.1%
0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.1%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
0.1%35.4%
0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.6%
0.9%31.0%
1.2%30.6%
0.4%30.4%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%28.1%
0.9%27.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.7%
0.5%21.6%
<0.1%20.6%
1.1%19.4%
<0.1%17.0%
3.4%16.7%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.7%
2.1%11.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-19