Miami (OH)RedHawks
0-0 T1st (0-0) in MAC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
29.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Miami (OH)'s probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Miami (OH) has a 29.0% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Miami (OH)'s Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:17% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:21% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:77% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 11/03 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 11/10 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 11/17 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 11/24 | Win prob:37% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 11.2% | 97.0% |
| 6-2 | 24.5% | 59.0% |
| 5-3 | 29.1% | 5.7% |
| 4-4 | 20.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 28.5% (-0.5%) | 29.8% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 32.0% • Scenario: 57.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 32.0% • Scenario: 57.9%
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.1%
0.7%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
92.5%
3.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.0%
0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.6%
0.1%95.4%
0.4%94.8%
0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.2%
0.3%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
78.3%
11.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.4%98.7%
<0.1%98.6%
0.4%98.5%
0.3%98.5%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.9%
0.4%97.8%
<0.1%97.8%
0.4%97.7%
0.6%97.6%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%96.0%
0.2%95.8%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.7%
0.6%95.5%
0.1%94.6%
1.4%94.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%84.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.5%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%71.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.5%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%67.3%
0.1%66.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%65.1%
0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.2%
0.1%63.8%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.2%
0.1%61.0%
<0.1%60.9%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.5%
0.2%58.3%
<0.1%57.4%
0.1%56.6%
<0.1%55.7%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.2%
<0.1%52.5%
0.2%51.9%
<0.1%51.9%
0.1%50.8%
<0.1%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%45.8%
0.2%42.9%
0.2%40.9%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%38.9%
0.2%38.8%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
51.4%
20.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%99.1%
0.2%98.9%
0.2%98.7%
0.3%98.7%
0.2%98.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.3%
0.3%97.2%
0.2%97.1%
<0.1%94.6%
0.7%94.3%
0.2%90.0%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.1%79.5%
0.1%79.3%
<0.1%79.2%
0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.8%
0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.6%
0.2%76.5%
<0.1%75.8%
0.3%75.1%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
0.3%71.3%
0.2%70.6%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%68.1%
0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.2%
0.1%65.9%
0.2%65.6%
0.3%64.9%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.4%
0.3%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.4%
0.2%62.2%
0.4%61.9%
0.3%61.8%
0.6%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.3%
0.6%61.3%
<0.1%61.0%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.5%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%56.5%
0.1%55.4%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.1%
0.1%53.5%
0.2%53.5%
<0.1%53.3%
1.0%53.1%
0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.6%
0.6%50.8%
<0.1%50.4%
0.4%50.1%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.2%
0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.5%
0.7%46.0%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%43.6%
1.0%43.5%
0.2%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26