Miami (OH)RedHawks
5-3 T3rd (3-1) in MAC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.8%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Miami (OH)'s probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Miami (OH) has a 12.8% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Miami (OH)'s Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Miami (OH) need to do to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Miami (OH)'s Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 17.0%.
What is the biggest game this week for Miami (OH)'s Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds?
Miami (OH)'s biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Buffalo would put its Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds at 17.1%, while a loss would drop them to 3.0%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L14-59 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W45-7 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | L31-35 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W24-21 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | L20-24 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W20-19 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W34-14 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | W28-27 | |
| 10 | 11/03 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/10 | Win prob:52% | |
| 12 | 11/17 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/24 | Win prob:23% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 7.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 33.8% | 17.0% |
| 5-3 | 40.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 16.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 3Tuesday, November 3 | |||
| 12.0% (-0.7%) | 17.2% (+4.4%) | ||
| 3.0% (-9.7%) | 17.1% (+4.4%) | ||
| Wed, Nov 4Wednesday, November 4 | |||
| 12.1% (-0.7%) | 13.0% (+0.2%) | ||
| 12.7% (-0.1%) | 17.5% (+4.8%) | ||
| 13.2% (+0.4%) | 12.3% (-0.5%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Akron
Sacramento State
Central MichiganMiami (OH)
MassachusettsCCG: 34.9% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Miami (OH)CCG: 17.7% • Scenario: 69.0%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02