Massachusetts

MassachusettsMinutemen

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in MAC

Data from 2026-09-19

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

12.5%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Massachusetts's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?

Massachusetts has a 12.5% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Massachusetts's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

MassachusettsSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/03
@RutgersRUTG
W37-21
29/12
vsSacred HeartSHU
W37-10
39/19
vsStonehillSTO
Win prob:90%
49/26
@Sacramento StSAC
Win prob:83%
510/03
vsE MichiganEMU
Win prob:78%
610/10
vsMiami OHM-OH
Win prob:57%
710/17
@BuffaloBUF
Win prob:53%
810/23
@UConnCONN
Win prob:40%
1011/04
vsBall StBALL
Win prob:78%
1111/11
@ToledoTOL
Win prob:16%
1211/18
vsAkronAKR
Win prob:72%
1311/28
@Bowling GreenBGSU
Win prob:68%

Data from 2026-09-19 • SportsSimulate.com

MassachusettsRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
1.2%
99.8%
7-1
10.0%
69.4%
6-2
25.6%
16.8%
5-3
31.3%
0.4%
4-4
21.2%
0%
3-5
8.5%
0%
2-6
2.0%
0%
1-7
0.3%
0%
0-8
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Massachusetts CCG Opponents

if Massachusetts makes the CCG

WMUW Michigan
51.0%
TOLToledo
38.1%
OHIOOhio
6.5%
M-OHMiami OH
2.8%
AKRAkron
0.5%
BUFBuffalo
0.4%
BALLBall St
0.3%
EMUE Michigan
0.2%
CMUC Michigan
0.2%
KENTKent
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-19 • SportsSimulate.com

MassachusettsThis Week's Impact

Game
MassachusettsCCG OddsAway Wins
MassachusettsCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
AkronAKR@MinnesotaMINN
12.4%
(-0.1%)		12.5%
(+0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Iowa StISU
12.5%
(+0.0%)		12.5%
(+0.0%)
BuffaloBUF@Penn StPSU
12.8%
(+0.2%)		12.5%
(+0.0%)
KentKENT@Ohio StOSU
12.7%
(+0.2%)		12.5%
(+0.0%)
E MichiganEMU@WisconsinWIS
12.7%
(+0.1%)		12.5%
(+0.0%)
WyomingWYO@C MichiganCMU
12.5%
(+0.0%)		12.5%
(-0.0%)
TempleTEM@ToledoTOL
12.5%
(-0.0%)		12.5%
(+0.0%)
Miami OHM-OH@CincinnatiCIN
12.7%
(+0.1%)		12.5%
(-0.0%)
StonehillSTO@MassachusettsMASS
12.5%
(-0.1%)		12.5%
(+0.0%)
Ball StBALL@LibertyLIB
12.6%
(+0.1%)		12.5%
(-0.0%)
OhioOHIO@South AlabamaUSA
12.5%
(-0.0%)		12.5%
(+0.0%)
W MichiganWMU@RiceRICE
12.5%
(+0.0%)		12.5%
(+0.0%)
North Dakota StNDSU@Sacramento StSAC
12.5%
(+0.0%)		12.4%
(-0.1%)

Data from 2026-09-19 • SportsSimulate.com

MassachusettsLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Massachusetts CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
99.7%
0.4%
Any 1 loss
74.0%
4.3%
Stonehill
99.8%
<0.1%
UConn
99.8%
0.6%
Ball St
90.3%
0.1%
Sacramento St
89.8%
<0.1%
Akron
87.5%
0.2%
Bowling Green
85.9%
0.2%
Buffalo
85.2%
0.4%
E Michigan
83.2%
0.1%
Miami OH
79.5%
0.3%
Toledo
59.5%
2.2%
Any 2 losses
37.6%
15.1%
StonehillUConn
99.6%
<0.1%
AkronStonehill
92.3%
<0.1%
Sacramento StUConn
91.5%
0.1%
Ball StUConn
90.4%
0.2%
BuffaloStonehill
88.8%
<0.1%
Sacramento StStonehill
88.0%
<0.1%
Ball StStonehill
87.4%
<0.1%
AkronUConn
87.3%
0.2%
BuffaloUConn
85.7%
0.5%
Bowling GreenUConn
85.3%
0.3%
E MichiganUConn
83.6%
0.2%
Bowling GreenStonehill
83.1%
<0.1%
E MichiganStonehill
82.6%
<0.1%
Miami OHUConn
79.4%
0.5%
Miami OHStonehill
76.8%
<0.1%
StonehillToledo
62.0%
0.3%
ToledoUConn
60.4%
3.4%
Bowling GreenSacramento St
51.7%
<0.1%
AkronSacramento St
50.1%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffalo
49.5%
0.2%
AkronBowling Green
49.4%
<0.1%
BuffaloSacramento St
49.3%
<0.1%
BuffaloE Michigan
46.5%
0.1%
Ball StBowling Green
45.6%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE Michigan
45.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganSacramento St
43.6%
<0.1%
Ball StSacramento St
43.1%
<0.1%
AkronBall St
42.7%
<0.1%
AkronBuffalo
41.5%
0.1%
Ball StBuffalo
40.7%
0.1%
Ball StE Michigan
36.3%
<0.1%
AkronE Michigan
35.9%
<0.1%
Miami OHSacramento St
31.8%
<0.1%
Ball StMiami OH
28.9%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OH
27.3%
0.3%
Bowling GreenMiami OH
26.9%
0.1%
AkronMiami OH
25.2%
0.1%
E MichiganMiami OH
24.9%
<0.1%
Sacramento StToledo
19.4%
0.5%
Ball StToledo
16.7%
0.6%
Bowling GreenToledo
15.3%
1.1%
BuffaloToledo
12.6%
2.0%
E MichiganToledo
10.6%
0.6%
AkronToledo
9.4%
0.9%
Miami OHToledo
5.9%
1.7%
Any 3 losses
16.6%
17.6%
Sacramento StStonehillUConn
91.5%
<0.1%
Ball StStonehillUConn
88.8%
<0.1%
AkronStonehillUConn
86.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganStonehillUConn
85.2%
<0.1%
BuffaloStonehillUConn
84.2%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenStonehillUConn
81.2%
<0.1%
Miami OHStonehillUConn
81.2%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenSacramento StStonehill
63.2%
<0.1%
StonehillToledoUConn
60.2%
0.4%
BuffaloE MichiganStonehill
54.3%
<0.1%
BuffaloSacramento StStonehill
53.3%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenSacramento StUConn
52.8%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloStonehill
52.1%
<0.1%
BuffaloSacramento StUConn
50.5%
0.1%
E MichiganSacramento StUConn
49.4%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenUConn
48.5%
0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloUConn
48.2%
0.3%
AkronSacramento StUConn
47.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganUConn
46.8%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenUConn
46.8%
<0.1%
Ball StSacramento StUConn
46.7%
<0.1%
AkronSacramento StStonehill
46.7%
<0.1%
AkronBuffaloStonehill
45.8%
<0.1%
AkronBuffaloUConn
44.5%
0.2%
AkronBowling GreenStonehill
44.3%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganUConn
44.1%
0.1%
E MichiganSacramento StStonehill
44.1%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganStonehill
43.4%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloUConn
42.8%
0.2%
Ball StBuffaloStonehill
41.7%
<0.1%
AkronBall StStonehill
41.2%
<0.1%
Ball StSacramento StStonehill
40.9%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenStonehill
40.3%
<0.1%
Ball StE MichiganUConn
39.9%
<0.1%
AkronBall StUConn
39.5%
<0.1%
AkronE MichiganUConn
36.8%
<0.1%
Ball StE MichiganStonehill
33.3%
<0.1%
Miami OHSacramento StUConn
31.1%
0.1%
Bowling GreenMiami OHUConn
28.9%
0.2%
Ball StMiami OHUConn
27.6%
0.1%
AkronE MichiganStonehill
27.1%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHStonehill
26.7%
<0.1%
Miami OHSacramento StStonehill
26.4%
<0.1%
E MichiganMiami OHUConn
26.0%
0.1%
Bowling GreenMiami OHStonehill
25.8%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHUConn
25.3%
0.4%
Ball StMiami OHStonehill
24.1%
<0.1%
AkronMiami OHUConn
23.8%
0.2%
AkronMiami OHStonehill
22.6%
<0.1%
Sacramento StToledoUConn
19.5%
0.7%
E MichiganMiami OHStonehill
19.5%
<0.1%
Sacramento StStonehillToledo
18.2%
<0.1%
Ball StToledoUConn
16.8%
1.0%
Ball StStonehillToledo
16.8%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenStonehillToledo
15.9%
0.1%
Bowling GreenToledoUConn
14.5%
1.6%
BuffaloToledoUConn
12.6%
3.0%
BuffaloStonehillToledo
12.1%
0.2%
AkronStonehillToledo
11.1%
0.1%
E MichiganToledoUConn
10.6%
0.9%
E MichiganStonehillToledo
9.9%
<0.1%
AkronToledoUConn
9.7%
1.3%
Miami OHStonehillToledo
7.0%
0.2%
Miami OHToledoUConn
5.8%
2.6%
AkronBowling GreenSacramento St
3.4%
<0.1%
AkronE MichiganSacramento St
3.4%
<0.1%
Ball StE MichiganSacramento St
2.6%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloSacramento St
2.5%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenBuffalo
2.5%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganSacramento St
2.2%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenE Michigan
2.2%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloE Michigan
2.2%
<0.1%
AkronBall StSacramento St
1.9%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenBuffalo
1.9%
<0.1%
AkronBall StBowling Green
1.8%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganSacramento St
1.8%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenSacramento St
1.7%
<0.1%
AkronBall StE Michigan
1.6%
<0.1%
Ball StMiami OHSacramento St
1.4%
<0.1%
AkronBuffaloSacramento St
1.3%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganMiami OH
1.1%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloMiami OH
1.1%
0.1%
AkronBowling GreenMiami OH
1.1%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenToledo
1.0%
0.3%
Ball StSacramento StToledo
1.0%
0.1%
Bowling GreenSacramento StToledo
1.0%
0.2%
AkronMiami OHSacramento St
0.9%
<0.1%
AkronBuffaloE Michigan
0.8%
<0.1%
BuffaloSacramento StToledo
0.7%
0.4%
Ball StBowling GreenE Michigan
0.6%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenMiami OHSacramento St
0.6%
<0.1%
AkronBall StMiami OH
0.6%
<0.1%
Ball StE MichiganToledo
0.5%
0.2%
E MichiganSacramento StToledo
0.5%
0.1%
Any 4 losses
4.6%
6.5%
Bowling GreenSacramento StStonehillUConn
52.0%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganStonehillUConn
51.9%
<0.1%
Ball StSacramento StStonehillUConn
51.1%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganStonehillUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenStonehillUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganSacramento StStonehillUConn
49.0%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenStonehillUConn
48.2%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloStonehillUConn
46.8%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloStonehillUConn
46.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloSacramento StStonehillUConn
46.0%
<0.1%
AkronSacramento StStonehillUConn
45.9%
<0.1%
AkronBuffaloStonehillUConn
39.9%
<0.1%
Ball StE MichiganStonehillUConn
39.7%
<0.1%
AkronBall StStonehillUConn
38.0%
<0.1%
AkronE MichiganStonehillUConn
37.3%
<0.1%
Miami OHSacramento StStonehillUConn
31.9%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHStonehillUConn
28.3%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenMiami OHStonehillUConn
28.0%
<0.1%
Ball StMiami OHStonehillUConn
26.6%
<0.1%
E MichiganMiami OHStonehillUConn
22.1%
<0.1%
AkronMiami OHStonehillUConn
21.9%
<0.1%
Sacramento StStonehillToledoUConn
17.8%
<0.1%
Ball StStonehillToledoUConn
15.6%
0.1%
Bowling GreenStonehillToledoUConn
14.9%
0.2%
BuffaloStonehillToledoUConn
12.4%
0.3%
E MichiganStonehillToledoUConn
11.0%
0.1%
AkronStonehillToledoUConn
8.9%
0.1%
Miami OHStonehillToledoUConn
6.2%
0.3%
AkronBowling GreenSacramento StStonehill
4.5%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganSacramento StUConn
4.4%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloE MichiganStonehill
3.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganSacramento StStonehill
3.3%
<0.1%
AkronBall StE MichiganUConn
2.4%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganSacramento StUConn
2.4%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloSacramento StStonehill
2.3%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloSacramento StUConn
2.3%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloMiami OHStonehill
2.1%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenSacramento StUConn
2.1%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenBuffaloUConn
2.0%
0.1%
AkronMiami OHSacramento StUConn
1.8%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenSacramento StUConn
1.7%
<0.1%
E MichiganMiami OHSacramento StUConn
1.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloE MichiganStonehill
1.6%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloE MichiganUConn
1.5%
<0.1%
AkronBuffaloSacramento StUConn
1.3%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenE MichiganUConn
1.3%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenSacramento StStonehillToledo
1.2%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloE MichiganUConn
1.1%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenMiami OHSacramento StUConn
1.1%
<0.1%
Ball StE MichiganSacramento StUConn
0.9%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenStonehillToledo
0.9%
<0.1%
BuffaloMiami OHSacramento StUConn
0.9%
<0.1%
Ball StSacramento StToledoUConn
0.9%
0.2%
AkronBuffaloMiami OHStonehill
0.8%
<0.1%
AkronBall StSacramento StUConn
0.8%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenStonehillToledo
0.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenBuffaloMiami OHUConn
0.7%
0.2%
AkronBall StStonehillToledo
0.7%
<0.1%
E MichiganSacramento StStonehillToledo
0.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenSacramento StToledoUConn
0.7%
0.3%
AkronBall StBowling GreenUConn
0.7%
<0.1%
AkronBowling GreenMiami OHUConn
0.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloSacramento StStonehillToledo
0.7%
<0.1%
AkronE MichiganSacramento StUConn
0.7%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenE MichiganMiami OHUConn
0.7%
<0.1%
AkronBall StBuffaloUConn
0.7%
<0.1%
BuffaloE MichiganMiami OHUConn
0.7%
0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenMiami OHUConn
0.6%
<0.1%
Ball StBuffaloMiami OHUConn
0.6%
0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenToledoUConn
0.6%
0.5%
Bowling GreenBuffaloToledoUConn
0.6%
1.4%
Ball StE MichiganMiami OHUConn
0.6%
<0.1%
BuffaloSacramento StToledoUConn
0.6%
0.6%
Ball StE MichiganStonehillToledo
0.5%
<0.1%
E MichiganMiami OHStonehillToledo
0.5%
<0.1%
Ball StBowling GreenBuffaloUConn
0.5%
<0.1%
AkronBuffaloE MichiganUConn
0.5%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-19 • SportsSimulate.com

MassachusettsCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-19 • SportsSimulate.com