BuffaloBulls
0-0 T1st (0-0) in MAC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Buffalo's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Buffalo has a 12.7% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Buffalo's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/03 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:6% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:40% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:27% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:73% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 11/03 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 11/11 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 11/18 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.3% | 98.6% |
| 6-2 | 12.4% | 61.1% |
| 5-3 | 24.4% | 5.8% |
| 4-4 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 20.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 12.2% (-0.4%) | 13.2% (+0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 17.0% • Scenario: 42.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 17.0% • Scenario: 42.1%
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
0.2%Any 2 losses
91.5%
1.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.2%
0.3%97.6%
0.4%96.2%
0.2%94.1%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
66.4%
6.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.2%99.1%
0.1%99.0%
0.4%98.8%
<0.1%98.2%
0.2%97.1%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.5%
0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%75.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.3%
0.1%74.1%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
0.3%70.6%
<0.1%70.2%
0.2%70.0%
<0.1%69.4%
0.2%68.8%
<0.1%67.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%65.0%
0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.2%
0.1%59.5%
0.3%58.3%
<0.1%55.5%
0.2%55.2%
0.1%54.1%
0.4%53.4%
0.2%50.8%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
0.7%46.1%
0.6%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
28.5%
15.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.4%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.7%
0.2%73.7%
<0.1%72.8%
<0.1%72.7%
0.2%72.7%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.5%
0.2%70.0%
<0.1%69.5%
<0.1%69.1%
0.1%68.5%
0.2%67.1%
0.2%67.1%
0.3%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
0.2%65.5%
<0.1%65.5%
0.1%64.6%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.1%
0.2%59.4%
0.3%58.0%
0.3%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.7%
0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%52.2%
0.4%51.6%
<0.1%51.4%
0.7%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.4%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
0.6%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%14.6%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.2%9.0%
0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
0.3%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.4%
0.3%6.1%
0.1%6.1%
0.2%6.1%
0.5%6.0%
0.3%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.0%
0.4%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
0.4%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
0.3%4.7%
0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.4%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%3.9%
0.5%3.8%
0.3%3.8%
0.4%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
0.4%3.0%
0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.1%
1.0%Data from 2026-08-26