BuffaloBulls
1-1 T2nd (0-0) in MAC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.2%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Buffalo's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Buffalo has a 2.2% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Buffalo's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/03 | W21-17 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L20-33 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:1% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:14% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:10% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:47% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/03 | Win prob:30% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:52% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:46% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.5% | 95.2% |
| 6-2 | 4.1% | 35.4% |
| 5-3 | 14.7% | 1.2% |
| 4-4 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 29.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 17.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 2.2% (+0.0%) | 2.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.1% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.9% (-0.3%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.8% (-0.4%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.2% (+0.0%) | 2.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.1% (+0.0%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.1% (-0.0%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.2% (+0.0%) | 2.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.1% (-0.0%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.1% (+0.0%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.2% (+0.0%) | 2.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.1% (-0.0%) | 2.2% (+0.1%) | ||
| 2.1% (+0.0%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
93.5%
0.5%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%
97.2%
<0.1%94.0%
0.2%93.5%
0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
35.7%
3.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%84.8%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%72.8%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.8%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%58.0%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%52.9%
0.2%51.9%
<0.1%51.6%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.2%
0.2%44.4%
0.1%42.7%
<0.1%42.2%
0.3%40.8%
0.2%39.3%
0.2%34.2%
0.5%33.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
1.2%8.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17