BuffaloBulls
5-3 T3rd (3-1) in MAC
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.2%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Buffalo's probability of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
Buffalo has a 9.2% chance to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Buffalo's Mid-American Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Buffalo need to do to reach the Mid-American Conference Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Buffalo's Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds at 63.7%; even one more loss drops that to 9.4%.
What is the biggest game this week for Buffalo's Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds?
Buffalo's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Miami (OH) would put its Mid-American Conference Championship Game odds at 25.5%, while a loss would drop them to 1.8%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/03 | W21-17 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L20-33 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | L13-55 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W31-28 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | L17-20 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W23-8 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W25-18 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | W31-24 | |
| 10 | 11/03 | Win prob:31% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:64% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:63% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:74% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 9.3% | 63.7% |
| 6-2 | 34.4% | 9.4% |
| 5-3 | 37.7% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 16.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 3Tuesday, November 3 | |||
| 8.1% (-1.1%) | 15.7% (+6.5%) | ||
| 25.5% (+16.4%) | 1.8% (-7.4%) | ||
| Wed, Nov 4Wednesday, November 4 | |||
| 9.4% (+0.2%) | 9.1% (-0.1%) | ||
| 9.1% (-0.1%) | 13.4% (+4.3%) | ||
| 9.6% (+0.4%) | 8.6% (-0.5%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Akron
Sacramento State
Central MichiganBuffalo
Ball StateCCG: 56.4% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BuffaloCCG: 25.7% • Scenario: 31.0%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02