NavyMidshipmen

1-1 T3rd (0-1) in AAC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

3.8%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Navy's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

Navy has a 3.8% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Navy's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
1	9/05	vsTowsonTOW	W42-15
2	9/12	@Florida AtlanticFAU	L30-38
4	9/25	@UABUAB	Win prob:74%
5	10/03	@Air ForceAF	Win prob:43%
6	10/10	vsTulsaTLSA	Win prob:52%
7	10/17	@UTSAUTSA	Win prob:36%
8	10/24	vsNorth TexasUNT	Win prob:38%
9	10/31	vsNotre DameND(N)	Win prob:1%
10	11/07	vsTempleTEM	Win prob:61%
12	11/21	vsMemphisMEM	Win prob:41%
13	11/28	@CharlotteCLT	Win prob:77%
15	12/12	vsArmyARMY(N)	Win prob:42%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	0.4%	95.4%
7-2	3.6%	47.9%
6-3	12.7%	12.9%
5-4	24.7%	0.2%
4-5	28.6%	0%
3-6	20.0%	0%
2-7	8.2%	0%
1-8	1.8%	0%
0-9	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

32.6%

15.5%

14.5%

12.6%

6.8%

6.1%

5.8%

2.6%

2.4%

1.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19
	North TexasUNT@Texas StateTXST	3.8% (+0.0%)	3.8% (+0.0%)
	TulaneTULN@Kansas StateKSU	3.8% (-0.0%)	3.8% (+0.0%)
	TempleTEM@ToledoTOL	3.8% (-0.0%)	3.8% (+0.0%)
	CharlotteCLT@App StateAPP	3.8% (-0.0%)	3.8% (+0.0%)
	East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU	3.8% (+0.0%)	3.8% (+0.0%)
	Florida InternationalFIU@Florida AtlanticFAU	3.8% (-0.0%)	3.8% (+0.0%)
	Delaware StateDSU@South FloridaUSF	3.8% (+0.0%)	3.8% (+0.0%)
	UT MartinUTM@MemphisMEM	3.8% (-0.1%)	3.8% (+0.0%)
	Western MichiganWMU@RiceRICE	3.8% (+0.0%)	3.8% (+0.0%)
	East Texas A&METAM@TulsaTLSA	3.8% (+0.0%)	3.8% (+0.0%)
	UABUAB@LouisianaUL	3.8% (-0.0%)	3.8% (+0.0%)
	UTSAUTSA@TexasTEX	4.0% (+0.2%)	3.8% (+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

95.2%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

95.2%

0.2%

90.0%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

43.3%

<0.1%

39.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

17.6%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

54.6%

1.8%

95.8%

0.3%

95.6%

0.2%

91.4%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

56.2%

<0.1%

55.6%

<0.1%

53.6%

<0.1%

48.3%

<0.1%

47.4%

<0.1%

46.7%

<0.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

43.6%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

42.2%

0.1%

41.3%

0.2%

40.1%

0.3%

36.7%

<0.1%

35.3%

<0.1%

35.1%

<0.1%

33.7%

0.3%

31.2%

0.3%

27.6%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

35.4%

4.6%

95.5%

0.3%

54.2%

<0.1%

53.8%

<0.1%

53.6%

<0.1%

53.3%

<0.1%

51.5%

<0.1%

49.4%

<0.1%

48.2%

<0.1%

46.9%

0.1%

45.5%

<0.1%

43.9%

0.2%

41.4%

<0.1%

41.0%

0.4%

40.6%

0.2%

40.2%

0.4%

39.0%

0.2%

32.9%

0.4%

31.3%

<0.1%

30.5%

0.4%

30.4%

0.4%

30.1%

0.3%

26.7%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.1%

0.1%

0.9%

<0.1%

0.9%

0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.8%

<0.1%

0.8%

<0.1%

0.6%

<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com