Appalachian St

App StateMountaineers

2-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

24.3%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is App State's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

App State has a 24.3% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. App State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Appalachian StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsMaineME
W55-3
29/12
@East CarolinaECU
W27-24
39/19
vsCharlotteCLT
Win prob:90%
49/26
@NC StateNCSU
Win prob:23%
610/10
vsOld DominionODU
Win prob:68%
710/16
@Coastal CarCCU
Win prob:61%
810/22
vsJames MadisonJMU
Win prob:45%
910/31
@Ga SouthernGASO
Win prob:55%
1011/07
vsGeorgia StGAST
Win prob:74%
1111/14
@MarshallMRSH
Win prob:73%
1211/21
vsULMULM
Win prob:96%
1311/27
@South AlabamaUSA
Win prob:56%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Appalachian StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
3.0%
100.0%
7-1
14.0%
74.2%
6-2
27.4%
32.1%
5-3
29.2%
6.9%
4-4
18.2%
0.4%
3-5
6.7%
0%
2-6
1.4%
0%
1-7
0.1%
0%
0-8
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Appalachian St CCG Opponents

if Appalachian St makes the CCG

LTLouisiana Tech
22.6%
ULLouisiana
21.7%
USMSouthern Miss
20.4%
USASouth Alabama
13.7%
TROYTroy
11.4%
ARSTArkansas St
10.1%
ULMULM
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Appalachian StThis Week's Impact

Game
Appalachian StCCG OddsAway Wins
Appalachian StCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
Coastal CarCCU@DelawareDEL
24.3%
(-0.0%)		24.3%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
24.6%
(+0.4%)		24.3%
(-0.0%)
SE LouisianaSELA@ULMULM
24.2%
(-0.1%)		24.3%
(+0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@Appalachian StAPP
24.3%
(-0.0%)		24.3%
(+0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
24.3%
(+0.0%)		24.3%
(-0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Missouri StMOST
24.3%
(-0.0%)		24.3%
(+0.0%)
Ga SouthernGASO@Jacksonville StJXST
24.2%
(-0.1%)		24.4%
(+0.1%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
24.4%
(+0.1%)		24.3%
(-0.0%)
OhioOHIO@South AlabamaUSA
24.3%
(+0.0%)		24.3%
(-0.0%)
TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ
24.3%
(-0.0%)		24.3%
(+0.0%)
UConnCONN@Southern MissUSM
24.3%
(+0.0%)		24.3%
(-0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
24.5%
(+0.2%)		24.3%
(-0.0%)
UABUAB@LouisianaUL
24.3%
(-0.0%)		24.3%
(+0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@San Diego StSDSU
24.3%
(+0.0%)		24.3%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Appalachian StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Appalachian St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.6%
Any 1 loss
85.1%
5.0%
NC State
100.0%
2.1%
South Alabama
100.0%
0.5%
Charlotte
100.0%
<0.1%
ULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Marshall
98.6%
0.2%
Coastal Car
90.9%
0.4%
Ga Southern
85.0%
0.5%
Georgia St
84.8%
0.2%
Old Dominion
76.7%
0.3%
James Madison
28.5%
0.8%
Any 2 losses
59.5%
15.9%
NC StateSouth Alabama
100.0%
1.6%
CharlotteSouth Alabama
100.0%
<0.1%
South AlabamaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNC State
100.0%
0.2%
NC StateULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteMarshall
98.8%
<0.1%
MarshallNC State
98.4%
0.8%
MarshallSouth Alabama
98.1%
0.2%
MarshallULM
97.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNC State
90.7%
1.3%
CharlotteCoastal Car
90.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarULM
90.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth Alabama
90.1%
0.3%
Georgia StULM
89.4%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouth Alabama
85.4%
0.4%
Ga SouthernULM
85.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia St
85.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernNC State
85.0%
1.7%
Georgia StNC State
84.8%
0.7%
CharlotteGa Southern
84.4%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouth Alabama
83.7%
0.2%
NC StateOld Dominion
75.9%
1.0%
Old DominionSouth Alabama
75.6%
0.2%
CharlotteOld Dominion
75.6%
<0.1%
Old DominionULM
72.6%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMarshall
37.9%
0.1%
Georgia StMarshall
33.1%
<0.1%
James MadisonULM
30.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteJames Madison
30.5%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMarshall
29.8%
0.2%
James MadisonNC State
29.2%
2.5%
James MadisonSouth Alabama
28.4%
0.6%
MarshallOld Dominion
23.2%
0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia St
20.0%
0.1%
Coastal CarGa Southern
19.1%
0.3%
Coastal CarOld Dominion
17.1%
0.2%
Ga SouthernGeorgia St
15.0%
0.2%
Ga SouthernOld Dominion
12.5%
0.2%
Georgia StOld Dominion
12.3%
0.1%
James MadisonMarshall
8.2%
0.3%
Coastal CarJames Madison
4.5%
0.5%
Georgia StJames Madison
3.3%
0.3%
Ga SouthernJames Madison
2.6%
0.6%
James MadisonOld Dominion
1.9%
0.4%
Any 3 losses
31.7%
23.8%
CharlotteNC StateSouth Alabama
100.0%
0.2%
NC StateSouth AlabamaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNC StateULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteSouth AlabamaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteMarshallULM
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallSouth AlabamaULM
98.6%
<0.1%
MarshallNC StateULM
98.4%
<0.1%
CharlotteMarshallSouth Alabama
98.4%
<0.1%
MarshallNC StateSouth Alabama
97.9%
0.6%
CharlotteMarshallNC State
97.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouth AlabamaULM
94.4%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarNC State
91.7%
0.2%
Coastal CarNC StateULM
91.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNC StateSouth Alabama
91.0%
1.0%
CharlotteCoastal CarSouth Alabama
90.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernNC StateULM
86.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernSouth Alabama
86.4%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouth AlabamaULM
85.5%
<0.1%
Georgia StNC StateSouth Alabama
85.2%
0.6%
Ga SouthernNC StateSouth Alabama
85.0%
1.4%
Georgia StSouth AlabamaULM
84.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StNC State
84.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StSouth Alabama
84.1%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernNC State
83.6%
0.2%
Georgia StNC StateULM
82.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernULM
81.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StULM
77.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteNC StateOld Dominion
77.4%
0.1%
NC StateOld DominionSouth Alabama
76.9%
0.8%
CharlotteOld DominionSouth Alabama
76.8%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth AlabamaULM
76.3%
<0.1%
NC StateOld DominionULM
73.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteOld DominionULM
66.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarMarshall
42.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMarshallNC State
37.7%
0.5%
MarshallOld DominionULM
36.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMarshallSouth Alabama
36.0%
0.1%
Georgia StMarshallNC State
33.5%
0.3%
Coastal CarMarshallULM
33.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteJames MadisonULM
33.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernMarshall
32.1%
<0.1%
Georgia StMarshallSouth Alabama
31.9%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouth AlabamaULM
31.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMarshallNC State
31.1%
0.6%
James MadisonNC StateSouth Alabama
29.5%
2.0%
CharlotteJames MadisonNC State
28.5%
0.3%
CharlotteJames MadisonSouth Alabama
28.1%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StMarshall
28.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMarshallSouth Alabama
27.6%
0.1%
Georgia StMarshallULM
27.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonNC StateULM
27.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteMarshallOld Dominion
26.6%
<0.1%
MarshallNC StateOld Dominion
25.1%
0.4%
Coastal CarGeorgia StULM
24.6%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StSouth Alabama
22.9%
0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernSouth Alabama
21.4%
0.3%
MarshallOld DominionSouth Alabama
21.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StNC State
21.0%
0.5%
Coastal CarGa SouthernNC State
20.9%
1.1%
Ga SouthernMarshallULM
20.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia StULM
19.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarGa Southern
19.3%
<0.1%
Georgia StOld DominionULM
19.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernULM
18.9%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarGeorgia St
17.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernGeorgia St
17.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia StNC State
17.2%
0.6%
Ga SouthernGeorgia StSouth Alabama
16.1%
0.1%
Coastal CarNC StateOld Dominion
16.0%
0.6%
CharlotteGeorgia StOld Dominion
15.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionSouth Alabama
15.4%
0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarOld Dominion
15.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionULM
14.9%
<0.1%
Georgia StOld DominionSouth Alabama
13.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernOld Dominion
13.4%
<0.1%
Georgia StNC StateOld Dominion
12.5%
0.3%
Ga SouthernOld DominionSouth Alabama
11.9%
0.2%
Ga SouthernNC StateOld Dominion
11.3%
0.8%
James MadisonMarshallULM
8.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernOld DominionULM
8.1%
<0.1%
James MadisonMarshallNC State
8.1%
0.9%
James MadisonMarshallSouth Alabama
7.6%
0.2%
CharlotteJames MadisonMarshall
7.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarJames Madison
5.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonULM
5.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonSouth Alabama
5.0%
0.4%
Coastal CarJames MadisonNC State
4.5%
1.6%
Georgia StJames MadisonULM
4.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StJames MadisonSouth Alabama
3.3%
0.2%
Georgia StJames MadisonNC State
3.3%
0.9%
CharlotteGa SouthernJames Madison
3.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonNC State
3.0%
2.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonSouth Alabama
2.8%
0.5%
James MadisonOld DominionULM
2.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StJames Madison
2.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonULM
2.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteJames MadisonOld Dominion
1.9%
<0.1%
James MadisonNC StateOld Dominion
1.9%
1.2%
James MadisonOld DominionSouth Alabama
1.7%
0.3%
Any 4 losses
16.4%
13.1%
CharlotteNC StateSouth AlabamaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteMarshallSouth AlabamaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallNC StateSouth AlabamaULM
99.1%
<0.1%
CharlotteMarshallNC StateULM
97.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteMarshallNC StateSouth Alabama
97.2%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernSouth AlabamaULM
93.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarNC StateSouth Alabama
90.9%
0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarSouth AlabamaULM
90.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarNC StateULM
89.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNC StateSouth AlabamaULM
89.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNC StateOld DominionULM
87.8%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernNC StateSouth AlabamaULM
87.2%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StNC StateSouth Alabama
86.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StSouth AlabamaULM
85.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernNC StateSouth Alabama
84.6%
0.2%
Georgia StNC StateSouth AlabamaULM
83.1%
<0.1%
NC StateOld DominionSouth AlabamaULM
81.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StNC StateULM
79.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernNC StateULM
79.4%
<0.1%
CharlotteNC StateOld DominionSouth Alabama
76.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StMarshallULM
66.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernMarshallULM
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteOld DominionSouth AlabamaULM
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteMarshallOld DominionULM
50.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMarshallNC StateULM
40.9%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMarshallSouth AlabamaULM
39.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarMarshallSouth Alabama
37.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMarshallNC StateSouth Alabama
37.3%
0.4%
Coastal CarMarshallSouth AlabamaULM
36.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernMarshallSouth Alabama
35.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarMarshallNC State
34.8%
<0.1%
Georgia StMarshallNC StateSouth Alabama
34.0%
0.2%
CharlotteJames MadisonNC StateULM
33.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernMarshallNC State
31.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernSouth AlabamaULM
31.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMarshallNC StateSouth Alabama
30.8%
0.5%
Georgia StMarshallNC StateULM
30.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteJames MadisonNC StateSouth Alabama
29.8%
0.2%
Ga SouthernMarshallNC StateULM
29.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StMarshallSouth Alabama
28.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StMarshallNC State
28.1%
<0.1%
James MadisonNC StateSouth AlabamaULM
26.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StNC StateULM
26.1%
<0.1%
CharlotteMarshallOld DominionSouth Alabama
25.7%
<0.1%
MarshallNC StateOld DominionULM
25.3%
<0.1%
MarshallNC StateOld DominionSouth Alabama
25.0%
0.3%
CharlotteCoastal CarMarshallULM
25.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteMarshallNC StateOld Dominion
24.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia StSouth AlabamaULM
23.9%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarGeorgia StNC State
23.8%
<0.1%
MarshallOld DominionSouth AlabamaULM
23.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteJames MadisonSouth AlabamaULM
23.1%
<0.1%
Georgia StMarshallSouth AlabamaULM
22.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernGeorgia StSouth Alabama
22.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarGa SouthernSouth Alabama
22.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StNC StateSouth Alabama
21.1%
0.4%
Coastal CarGa SouthernNC StateSouth Alabama
21.0%
0.9%
CharlotteCoastal CarGa SouthernNC State
20.6%
0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarGeorgia StULM
20.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarGeorgia StSouth Alabama
19.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia StNC StateULM
19.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StSouth AlabamaULM
18.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernNC StateULM
17.9%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia StNC StateSouth Alabama
17.5%
0.5%
Coastal CarNC StateOld DominionULM
17.1%
<0.1%
CharlotteJames MadisonMarshallULM
16.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarOld DominionSouth Alabama
16.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNC StateOld DominionSouth Alabama
15.7%
0.5%
Georgia StNC StateOld DominionULM
15.4%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernOld DominionSouth Alabama
15.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernOld DominionSouth AlabamaULM
14.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarNC StateOld Dominion
14.4%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarGa SouthernULM
14.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernGeorgia StNC State
13.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionSouth AlabamaULM
13.7%
<0.1%
Georgia StOld DominionSouth AlabamaULM
13.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StOld DominionSouth Alabama
12.8%
<0.1%
Georgia StNC StateOld DominionSouth Alabama
12.0%
0.3%
Ga SouthernNC StateOld DominionSouth Alabama
11.7%
0.6%
CharlotteGa SouthernNC StateOld Dominion
11.5%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernNC StateOld DominionULM
11.4%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StNC StateOld Dominion
11.2%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarJames MadisonULM
10.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StJames MadisonULM
10.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonSouth AlabamaULM
8.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarOld DominionULM
8.3%
<0.1%
James MadisonMarshallNC StateSouth Alabama
7.6%
0.7%
James MadisonMarshallNC StateULM
7.5%
<0.1%
James MadisonMarshallSouth AlabamaULM
7.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteJames MadisonMarshallSouth Alabama
7.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteJames MadisonMarshallNC State
7.2%
0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarJames MadisonSouth Alabama
5.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonNC StateSouth Alabama
4.6%
1.3%
Coastal CarJames MadisonNC StateULM
4.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteCoastal CarJames MadisonNC State
4.6%
0.2%
CharlotteJames MadisonOld DominionSouth Alabama
4.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonSouth AlabamaULM
3.9%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StJames MadisonNC State
3.9%
<0.1%
Georgia StJames MadisonSouth AlabamaULM
3.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteGeorgia StJames MadisonSouth Alabama
3.5%
<0.1%
James MadisonOld DominionSouth AlabamaULM
3.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonNC StateSouth Alabama
3.2%
1.7%
Georgia StJames MadisonNC StateSouth Alabama
3.2%
0.7%
CharlotteGa SouthernJames MadisonSouth Alabama
3.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteGa SouthernJames MadisonNC State
2.6%
0.2%
Georgia StJames MadisonNC StateULM
2.5%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonNC StateULM
2.5%
<0.1%
James MadisonNC StateOld DominionSouth Alabama
1.7%
0.9%
James MadisonNC StateOld DominionULM
1.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteJames MadisonNC StateOld Dominion
1.4%
0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Appalachian StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com