App StateMountaineers
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is App State's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
App State has a 9.4% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. App State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:25% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:67% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:17% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:43% | ||
| 10/16 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/22 | Win prob:38% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:42% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:42% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:46% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.0% | 79.9% |
| 6-2 | 10.8% | 36.1% |
| 5-3 | 22.6% | 10.4% |
| 4-4 | 28.5% | 1.4% |
| 3-5 | 22.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 10.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
88.2%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
73.0%
1.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.1%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
53.0%
4.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%91.5%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.1%
0.2%84.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.2%
0.2%83.0%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.9%
0.2%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%51.3%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.1%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%22.8%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%11.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
35.7%
8.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.8%
0.1%89.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.8%
0.2%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.6%
<0.1%84.6%
0.2%83.7%
0.1%82.2%
0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%66.7%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.4%
0.2%45.5%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.8%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%30.9%
0.2%30.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.5%
0.2%29.4%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.6%
0.2%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
0.2%12.9%
<0.1%12.7%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
0.2%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.3%7.6%
0.3%7.6%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26