Appalachian St

App StateMountaineers

5-3 T4th (2-2) in SBC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.3%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is App State's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

App State has a 0.3% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. App State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does App State need to do to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts App State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds at 0.9%; even one more loss drops that to 1.0%.

What is the biggest game this week for App State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds?

The biggest swing game for App State's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds this week isn't even its own: a Marshall win would boost them to 1.4%, while a Georgia Southern win would leave them at 0.2%.

Appalachian StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsMaineME
W55-3
29/12
@East CarolinaECU
W27-24
39/19
vsCharlotteCLT
W26-21
49/26
@NC StateNCSU
L31-41
610/10
vsOld DominionODU
L3-10
710/16
@Coastal CarCCU
W35-32
810/22
vsJames MadisonJMU
W34-31
910/31
@Ga SouthernGASO
L3-19
1011/07
vsGeorgia StGAST
Win prob:61%
1111/14
@MarshallMRSH
Win prob:59%
1211/21
vsULMULM
Win prob:95%
1311/27
@South AlabamaUSA
Win prob:46%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Appalachian StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
6-2
15.8%
0.9%
5-3
40.4%
0.5%
4-4
33.7%
0.0%
3-5
9.7%
0%
2-6
0.4%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Appalachian St CCG Opponents

if Appalachian St makes the CCG

LTLouisiana Tech
94.1%
USMSouthern Miss
2.9%
ULLouisiana
2.9%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Appalachian StThis Week's Impact

Game
Appalachian StCCG OddsAway Wins
Appalachian StCCG OddsHome Wins
Thu, Nov 5
James MadisonJMU@Southern MissUSM
0.3%
(+0.0%)		0.3%
(-0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7
Old DominionODU@Coastal CarCCU
0.9%
(+0.5%)		0.2%
(-0.2%)
Georgia StGAST@Appalachian StAPP
0.0%
(-0.3%)		0.6%
(+0.2%)
ULMULM@Arkansas StARST
0.3%
(-0.0%)		0.3%
(+0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Ga SouthernGASO
1.4%
(+1.1%)		0.2%
(-0.2%)
Louisiana TechLT@TroyTROY
0.3%
(+0.0%)		0.3%
(+0.0%)
South AlabamaUSA@LouisianaUL
0.3%
(+0.0%)		0.3%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Appalachian St

Southern MissSouthern MissAppalachian StApp StateMarshallMarshallArkansas StArkansas StateOld DominionOld Dominion

CCG: 3.2% • Scenario: 0.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Appalachian St

Appalachian StApp StateMarshallMarshall

CCG: 2.2% • Scenario: 8.8%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Appalachian StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Appalachian St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
0.9%
15.8%
Any 1 loss
1.0%
19.5%
South Alabama
1.0%
18.6%
ULM
0.9%
0.8%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Appalachian StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com