Southern Miss

Southern MissGolden Eagles

1-1 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

20.6%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Southern Miss's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

Southern Miss has a 20.6% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Southern Miss's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Southern MissSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsAlcorn StateALCN
W49-3
29/12
@AuburnAUB
L8-43
39/19
vsUConnCONN
Win prob:70%
49/26
@TulaneTULN
Win prob:23%
610/06
@TroyTROY
Win prob:47%
710/17
vsArkansas StARST
Win prob:64%
810/24
vsLouisianaUL
Win prob:56%
910/31
@ULMULM
Win prob:87%
1011/05
vsJames MadisonJMU
Win prob:35%
1111/14
@Louisiana TechLT
Win prob:40%
1211/21
vsSouth AlabamaUSA
Win prob:62%
1311/28
@Old DominionODU
Win prob:41%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Southern MissRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.5%
100.0%
7-1
4.2%
83.9%
6-2
14.2%
55.8%
5-3
25.9%
26.4%
4-4
28.2%
6.2%
3-5
18.5%
0.0%
2-6
7.0%
0%
1-7
1.4%
0%
0-8
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Southern Miss CCG Opponents

if Southern Miss makes the CCG

JMUJames Madison
46.9%
APPAppalachian St
24.1%
ODUOld Dominion
10.8%
GASOGa Southern
8.1%
GASTGeorgia St
4.9%
CCUCoastal Car
4.4%
MRSHMarshall
0.8%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Southern MissThis Week's Impact

Game
Southern MissCCG OddsAway Wins
Southern MissCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
Coastal CarCCU@DelawareDEL
20.6%
(+0.0%)		20.6%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
20.6%
(+0.1%)		20.6%
(-0.0%)
SE LouisianaSELA@ULMULM
20.6%
(+0.1%)		20.6%
(-0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@Appalachian StAPP
20.7%
(+0.1%)		20.5%
(-0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
20.5%
(-0.0%)		20.6%
(+0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Missouri StMOST
20.5%
(-0.0%)		20.6%
(+0.0%)
Ga SouthernGASO@Jacksonville StJXST
20.5%
(-0.0%)		20.6%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
20.5%
(-0.1%)		20.6%
(+0.0%)
OhioOHIO@South AlabamaUSA
20.6%
(+0.1%)		20.5%
(-0.0%)
TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ
20.4%
(-0.1%)		20.6%
(+0.0%)
UConnCONN@Southern MissUSM
20.6%
(+0.1%)		20.5%
(-0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
20.6%
(+0.1%)		20.6%
(-0.0%)
UABUAB@LouisianaUL
20.5%
(-0.1%)		20.6%
(+0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@San Diego StSDSU
20.6%
(+0.1%)		20.5%
(-0.1%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Southern MissLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Southern Miss CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
89.1%
1.0%
Old Dominion
100.0%
0.1%
James Madison
100.0%
0.2%
Tulane
100.0%
0.3%
UConn
100.0%
<0.1%
ULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Troy
81.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas St
77.1%
<0.1%
South Alabama
72.7%
<0.1%
Louisiana Tech
66.9%
0.1%
Louisiana
61.7%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
71.5%
5.0%
James MadisonTulane
100.0%
0.5%
Old DominionUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionTulane
100.0%
0.4%
James MadisonOld Dominion
100.0%
0.2%
Old DominionULM
100.0%
<0.1%
TulaneULM
100.0%
<0.1%
TulaneUConn
100.0%
0.1%
James MadisonULM
100.0%
<0.1%
UConnULM
100.0%
<0.1%
TroyTulane
83.3%
0.3%
Old DominionTroy
82.9%
0.1%
James MadisonTroy
82.7%
0.2%
TroyUConn
82.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames Madison
81.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StTulane
79.1%
0.2%
Arkansas StOld Dominion
78.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StUConn
77.6%
<0.1%
South AlabamaUConn
76.6%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth Alabama
76.1%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouth Alabama
75.5%
0.1%
South AlabamaTulane
73.8%
0.2%
Louisiana TechTulane
66.0%
0.4%
James MadisonLouisiana Tech
65.8%
0.2%
Louisiana TechUConn
65.8%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOld Dominion
64.5%
0.2%
James MadisonLouisiana
62.7%
0.1%
LouisianaOld Dominion
61.5%
<0.1%
LouisianaUConn
58.6%
<0.1%
LouisianaTulane
58.3%
0.2%
TroyULM
40.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StULM
40.5%
<0.1%
South AlabamaULM
36.6%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechULM
25.8%
<0.1%
LouisianaULM
23.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StTroy
15.2%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTroy
11.6%
0.1%
South AlabamaTroy
10.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana Tech
10.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StSouth Alabama
10.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana
9.3%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
9.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaTroy
8.8%
<0.1%
LouisianaLouisiana Tech
7.1%
0.1%
LouisianaSouth Alabama
6.6%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
51.2%
13.1%
James MadisonOld DominionTulane
100.0%
0.8%
Old DominionUConnULM
100.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonOld DominionUConn
100.0%
0.1%
Old DominionTulaneULM
100.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonTulaneUConn
100.0%
0.2%
James MadisonUConnULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionTulaneUConn
100.0%
0.2%
James MadisonOld DominionULM
100.0%
<0.1%
TulaneUConnULM
100.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonTulaneULM
99.9%
<0.1%
TroyTulaneUConn
82.5%
0.1%
Old DominionTroyTulane
82.5%
0.4%
James MadisonOld DominionTroy
82.4%
0.3%
Old DominionTroyUConn
81.3%
<0.1%
James MadisonTroyTulane
81.1%
0.6%
James MadisonTroyUConn
81.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StOld DominionTulane
80.0%
0.2%
Arkansas StJames MadisonTulane
79.8%
0.3%
Arkansas StOld DominionUConn
79.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonUConn
79.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonOld Dominion
79.5%
0.1%
Arkansas StTulaneUConn
78.3%
<0.1%
James MadisonOld DominionSouth Alabama
75.1%
0.1%
James MadisonSouth AlabamaTulane
74.1%
0.3%
Old DominionSouth AlabamaTulane
74.1%
0.3%
James MadisonSouth AlabamaUConn
72.9%
<0.1%
South AlabamaTulaneUConn
72.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth AlabamaUConn
70.2%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechUConn
68.6%
0.1%
Louisiana TechOld DominionTulane
67.2%
0.6%
James MadisonLouisiana TechTulane
67.2%
0.8%
Louisiana TechOld DominionUConn
67.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechOld Dominion
66.2%
0.3%
Louisiana TechTulaneUConn
66.0%
0.2%
James MadisonLouisianaOld Dominion
62.2%
0.2%
LouisianaOld DominionUConn
61.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionTulane
60.9%
0.3%
James MadisonLouisianaTulane
60.3%
0.4%
LouisianaTulaneUConn
59.3%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaUConn
55.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonTroyULM
42.3%
<0.1%
Old DominionTroyULM
41.1%
<0.1%
TroyTulaneULM
40.8%
<0.1%
South AlabamaUConnULM
40.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StOld DominionULM
40.2%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouth AlabamaULM
39.9%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth AlabamaULM
39.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonULM
39.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StTulaneULM
38.4%
<0.1%
South AlabamaTulaneULM
37.4%
<0.1%
TroyUConnULM
35.8%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechULM
29.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaUConnULM
29.4%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTulaneULM
28.9%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionULM
28.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaTulaneULM
26.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StUConnULM
25.8%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOld DominionULM
25.4%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechUConnULM
25.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaULM
22.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StOld DominionTroy
19.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth AlabamaTroy
15.9%
<0.1%
Arkansas StSouth AlabamaUConn
15.9%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouth AlabamaTroy
15.3%
0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonTroy
15.2%
0.1%
Arkansas StTroyTulane
14.8%
0.2%
Arkansas StTroyUConn
14.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonSouth Alabama
13.8%
<0.1%
South AlabamaTroyTulane
13.3%
0.2%
Louisiana TechOld DominionTroy
12.0%
0.2%
LouisianaOld DominionTroy
11.9%
0.1%
Arkansas StOld DominionSouth Alabama
11.9%
<0.1%
LouisianaTroyUConn
11.8%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechTroy
11.4%
0.3%
Arkansas StSouth AlabamaTulane
11.3%
0.1%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisiana Tech
11.1%
0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana TechOld Dominion
10.9%
0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaTroy
10.6%
0.1%
Louisiana TechTroyTulane
10.6%
0.5%
Louisiana TechTroyUConn
10.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana TechTulane
10.3%
0.2%
James MadisonLouisiana TechSouth Alabama
10.2%
0.1%
South AlabamaTroyUConn
9.6%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechOld DominionSouth Alabama
9.0%
0.1%
Arkansas StLouisiana TechUConn
9.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouth AlabamaTulane
8.7%
0.3%
LouisianaSouth AlabamaUConn
8.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaTroyTulane
8.3%
0.2%
Arkansas StJames MadisonLouisiana
8.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaOld Dominion
8.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaTulane
7.6%
0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaSouth Alabama
7.0%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouth AlabamaUConn
6.6%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisianaLouisiana Tech
6.6%
0.2%
LouisianaLouisiana TechOld Dominion
6.6%
0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionSouth Alabama
6.5%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouth AlabamaTulane
6.3%
0.1%
LouisianaLouisiana TechTulane
6.0%
0.3%
LouisianaLouisiana TechUConn
5.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StLouisianaUConn
3.6%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechSouth AlabamaULM
0.8%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Southern MissCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com