Southern MissGolden Eagles
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
29.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Southern Miss's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
Southern Miss has a 29.0% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Southern Miss's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:13% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:28% | ||
| 10/06 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:75% | ||
| 11/05 | Win prob:49% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:55% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 7.5% | 85.9% |
| 6-2 | 19.3% | 58.7% |
| 5-3 | 28.1% | 28.9% |
| 4-4 | 24.9% | 7.6% |
| 3-5 | 13.5% | 0.1% |
| 2-6 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
96.5%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
85.3%
2.6%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%81.2%
<0.1%81.0%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.4%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.1%
0.1%70.1%
0.2%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
70.6%
8.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%98.6%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%82.5%
0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.2%
0.2%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.5%
0.3%78.3%
<0.1%77.9%
0.4%77.8%
0.2%77.1%
0.1%76.5%
0.2%76.5%
<0.1%76.3%
0.1%76.1%
<0.1%75.8%
0.1%75.5%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.4%
0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%72.1%
0.3%72.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.2%
0.1%71.2%
<0.1%71.0%
0.2%70.1%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.1%
0.5%69.0%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.0%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
54.8%
16.6%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.8%
0.2%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
0.2%97.6%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%84.7%
<0.1%83.9%
0.1%83.3%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.7%
<0.1%82.5%
0.2%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.2%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.2%
0.3%79.8%
<0.1%79.4%
0.2%78.6%
<0.1%78.4%
0.2%78.0%
0.1%78.0%
0.6%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
0.1%77.3%
0.4%76.2%
0.4%75.4%
<0.1%75.3%
<0.1%75.0%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%74.1%
0.7%73.9%
0.3%73.8%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.4%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.0%
0.1%72.7%
0.1%72.1%
0.4%69.8%
<0.1%69.7%
0.3%69.2%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%66.7%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
0.1%65.6%
0.5%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.0%
0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.3%
0.1%30.8%
0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.2%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%23.8%
0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.2%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.0%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.4%
0.2%20.0%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
0.1%19.5%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.3%
0.2%17.9%
0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.1%
0.2%17.0%
0.1%17.0%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.9%
0.2%15.9%
0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.1%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.6%
0.3%14.5%
0.4%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.3%
0.2%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
0.1%13.1%
0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.6%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
0.3%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.6%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26